Lior Shemesh

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Lior Shemesh

Lior Shemesh

@LiorShemesh4

שוק ההון. משתף מסקנות, תובנות, דעות ופרספקטיבות. תעקבו גם באינסטגרם ליותר תוכן איכותי 👇

Katılım Şubat 2021
523 Takip Edilen199 Takipçiler
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
There is no AI bubble. AI is the greatest technology of the last few decades There is a valuation bubble right now, in some extreme over-extended semiconductor names, that trade at ridiculous valuations, that even if they were to accelerate their growth will still be overvalued.
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
@jukan05 And pepole still buy this stuff. Why would one buy this when better companies trade at cheaper valuations. Why would one buy an unprofitable neo cloud that has to pay Nvidia's 75% margins when they can buy Nvidia, Micron , or any other CapEx receiver. Why buy the CapEx spenders?
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
"Some neo-clouds worry that they can’t stray from buying Nvidia’s full stack of hardware for fear of being put in “Jensen jail,” meaning they might lose their allocations of Nvidia chips, said Adam Fisher, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners." It seems Jensen Huang is effectively threatening neo-clouds implying that Nvidia could cut their chip allocations if they don’t buy Nvidia’s full stack.
Jukan tweet media
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
Incredible. I'm a big memory bull, but this just seems.. exaggerated. BAC are modeling the best possible scenario here. It'd probably be more profitable for hyperscalers to build fabs themselves in this case. Also assuming no technological advances allow for reduced memory usage
Trade Whisperer@TradexWhisperer

$MU $DRAM $TSM $NVDA Bank of America Projections $1.96T semi TAM by 2030. $900B is memory. Nearly half. Why half? Because LLMs without memory are stupid. Memory is what makes AI intelligent. The market is telling you where the value lives.

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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
We've reached national security threat yet pepole still call AI a bubble. I haven't even gotten to trying those models yet and now I'm blocked from using them 🤣
Anthropic@AnthropicAI

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…

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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
Why is anyone bidding up Semis at such ridiculous valuations? $ARM $INTC $MRVL?
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
@rubicon59 This is a high CapEx, low ROI business now with big OpenAI exposure. I do not see any reason why one would buy it over any other hyperscaler. Seems stupid. It's not even that cheap at similar multiples and growth to hyperscalers.
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rubicon59
rubicon59@rubicon59·
$ORCL business was (IMHO) at its best when i used to ship software on CDs. I know, your opinions may differ.
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
@nav09284172 אולי כי הטענה ש AI הורג סאאס שגויה ומבינים את זה כבר
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
@HostagesandProb @oguzerkan Yes. Why CapEx spenders for low ROI when you can buy the CapEx receivers with high ROI IMO neo clouds are the worst way to play AI. I don't understand how people keep buying them.
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Hostages and Probability
Hostages and Probability@HostagesandProb·
@oguzerkan I agree, but why buy the companies spending the cash ($CRWV, $NBIS) instead of the companies receiving the cash ($NVDA, $AVGO)? If it's a high beta play, I get it - but that isn't my game.
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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
There is no reason $CRWV should be valued below $NBIS. Its financials have improved materially as it raised $20 billion YTD through equity and debt with no major maturities until 2029. Plummeting credit spread validates this. Yet it’s still valued below $NBIS. Opportunity.
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
@RentYourStocks Valuation bubble... this is the case with half the AI trade. Priced for CapEx growing 10s of percentage points a year in perpetuity yet in reality it's only going to grow 15-20% a year and most of the money is going to memory.
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I Sell Options Guy
I Sell Options Guy@RentYourStocks·
The MATH is NOT Mathing...🤡 Marvell, a cyclical hardware company, is trading at 27x sales. $11b in sales and has a market cap of $264 billion. How did we get here?
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
$ONDS chart is very reminiscent of $RKLB consolidation
Lior Shemesh tweet mediaLior Shemesh tweet media
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
The only bear case to $RDDT I can see happening is AI taking market share out of $RDDT search. But a similar StackOverflow case just caused the company to 2x revenue. Incredible. Not apples to apples comparison but definitely worth taking into account.
Bearly AI@bearlyai

Stack Overflow has seen the number of monthly questions on its platform collapse from 300k to ~0 since launch of ChatGPT. Meanwhile, annual revenue is actually up 2x during that span to more than $115m. How? It has licensed its back-catalog of human answers to AI labs and created an enterprise product called “Stack Internal”, a GenAI tool powered by millions of its Q&A (currently used by 25,000 companies).

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YodaStocks
YodaStocks@YodaStockInvest·
STOP LOOKING AT YOUR PORTFOLIO 5 TIMES A DAY
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
Why is $NU so cheap? 13x PE for a 40% grower?!
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
@KrisPatel99 Current SaaS holder here but honestly none of this names deserve to keep going up even nowhere near ATH.. their growth rates don't justify the price tags. Holding $NOW but at 30x earnings for 20% revenue growth isn't cheap here, IMO, when Meta is growing faster for cheaper
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Kris Patel 🇺🇸
Kris Patel 🇺🇸@KrisPatel99·
$CRM is definetly catching bids from those that missed out on $NOW run up... First it was capital flowing into the strongest SaaS... Now that capital is diversifying into other strong SaaS players... All of Saas is still way off its highs and will likely keep catching bids this summer as fears of AI disruption subside.
Kris Patel 🇺🇸 tweet media
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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
@nav09284172 הטענות האלו של "AI מייתר את הסאאס" אינן נכונות. AI קונה הפצה? אמינות? אבטחה? לקוחות? CAC? שיווק? תמיכה? SLAs? עשרות אלפי עובדים שגם יכולים לעשות וייב-קודינג? מי יממן את חברות המודל אם הסאאס יעלם? אם כבר תוכנה איכותית חשובה יותר בעולם בו עלות הטוקנים טסים והתפוקה יורדת
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משאם אחזקות
משאם אחזקות@nav09284172·
אפשר לומר שדי טעיתי בטווח הקצר לגבי הכיוון בסקטור התוכנה לא חשבתי שהתמיכה תחזיק אחרי כל כך הרבה פעמים שהיא נתמכה' אבל כנראה שהvwap חזק מהכל. אבל בטווח הארוך אני עדיין חושב שזה לא יחיזיק מים וכרגע אנחו בונים את הכתף השניה זה די נראה כמו עליה לכניסה של כסף חדש לפני מפולת. אני פשוט מסתכל הigv /soxx ששם אין שום אות חיים ניכר וזה מה שחשוב בסופו של דבר הai ייתר את רוב הצורך בחברות התוכנה ואני חושב שהעליה הזאת היא מתנה לכל מי שרצה לצאת ונתקע תזכרו שיש המון חברות חוב שכמעט קרסו בגלל הנפילה הזאת וחטפו פדיונות הם חייבים להקטין חשיפה
משאם אחזקות tweet mediaמשאם אחזקות tweet media
משאם אחזקות@nav09284172

סקטור התוכנה $igv תזכרו שמבחינה טכנית ככל שתמיכה נבחנת יותר כך היא הופכת יותר לחלשה אל תהיו כבשים!!!!!!

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Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
Why the fuck is $ARM worth 400,000,000,000$?
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Lior Shemesh retweetledi
Lior Shemesh
Lior Shemesh@LiorShemesh4·
@DimitryNakhla The SaaS is dead take will age just like any other sector that was pronounced dead only to recover later. SaaS' only problems are high valuations and high SBC but some names in this sector are just phenomenal companies beaten down on stupid sentiment.. $APP $RDDT $NOW NFA.
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Keşfet

@jukan05 @rubicon59 @nav09284172 @HostagesandProb @oguzerkan @RentYourStocks @YodaStockInvest @elonmusk