Melo Edges

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Melo Edges

Melo Edges

@LocksMelo

23 | Chasing value daily 📊 Free NBA Props 🏀 Building profit one play at a time Discord ↓ | ☕️ Support https://t.co/sSki2vLqIX

Katılım Mayıs 2024
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Melo Edges
Melo Edges@LocksMelo·
SAS @ OKC GAME 5 BREAKDOWN🏀 (Series tied 2-2) 1. The Spurs just held OKC to 82 points, their lowest scoring game of the season. The Thunder couldn’t hit anything from deep, shooting just 6/33 from three (18%). Coach Mark Daigneault talked about the loss saying: “The reality is — we didn’t shoot it well, but they made nine threes and shot 27%, and one of them was like a half-court heave. It wasn’t like they shot lights out tonight. The game was won at the free throw line, on the glass, in transition.” Now back at home, I’m expecting OKC role players to shoot much better, and probably get a friendlier whistle too. 2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with just 19 points, only the 2nd time this season he failed to score 20+. I’m expecting a bounceback. The Spurs defended him differently last game. Instead of sending aggressive early doubles like the first 3 games, they were helping later in possessions. That could actually benefit Shai, letting him attack early and get to his midrange spots before the help comes. This also feels like a must-win spot for OKC. You do NOT want to head back to San Antonio down 3-2 with how physical this series has been. Expecting SGA to come out aggressive tonight. Already played SGA 30+ points👀 3. OKC needs more from Chet. After Game 1, Daigneault mentioned the Thunder don’t usually run many specific actions for Chet, but with JDub and Ajay out, that could change: “We went to him a little bit at different times. But I just thought the overall global approach offensively tonight didn’t benefit anybody.” Chet also wasn’t happy with his own performance: “No matter what I do out there, I always expect more for myself… I can see a lot of opportunities in the game where I have to be better.” He finished with 10 points, 9 rebounds, and a +2 net rating (2nd best on OKC). SGA also talked about getting him involved more: “Chet’s an easy target to find… just put him in better positions to use his strengths as an offensive talent.” Now seeing some 12.5 point lines for Chet, which feels low if they make a real effort to involve him offensively. 4. Isaiah Hartenstein only played 18 minutes last game, partially because of the blowout, but he was very effective early, scoring all 12 of his points in the first half. He took 11 shots total, with only 2 coming in the second half. I think OKC went away from him a bit because they were trailing most of the game, desperately needed more three-point shooting, and ended up playing a lot more Jay Will minutes because of that. I’d expect them to lean on IHart more tonight. He scored 7 of his 11 shots, off that floater he LOVES to use against taller bigs, and against Wemby’s drop coverage, it’s a great weapon. I think we could see a lot more of that tonight. After the game, Shai was asked how the offense changes without JDub and Ajay: “Play through the bigs a little bit more.” That immediately stood out to me. Feels like IHart is once again in a strong spot for production, and his lines are definitely interesting tonight. 5. OKC’s role players simply have to shoot better at home. In Game 3, the Thunder bench exploded for 76 points. Last game? Just 34. Jared McCain shot 1/10 Jaylin Williams 1/7 Aaron Wiggins 2/11 Cason Wallace 2/8 At home, I’d expect some positive shooting regression from this group. At the same time, the Spurs’ defense completely took them out of rhythm. De'Aaron Fox said after the game: “It’s never just black and white and that simple. But we contested 91% of shots today. That’s just a recipe to win a game.” I think both can be true: OKC should shoot better at home, but San Antonio also deserves a ton of credit for the defensive pressure they applied. 6. The Spurs played incredible defense in Game 4 and completely changed their approach on SGA. It worked. But offensively, San Antonio wasn’t exactly dominant either. They shot just 27% from three, and the biggest difference came at the free throw line: Spurs — 32 FTA Thunder — 18 FTA On the road, I’d expect that gap to shrink. 7. Victor Wembanyama was incredible once again: 33 points 8 rebounds 5 assists Before Game 4, Wemby said he wanted to do a better job finding teammates, and he backed that up with 5 assists. OKC simply hasn’t had answers for him so far. He’s now cleared 25.5 points in 3 of the 4 games this series. 8. De’Aaron Fox is still clearly dealing with that ankle sprain. When asked postgame if it felt better after the W, he simply responded: “No, it doesn’t. No.” Even through the injury, he still finished with: 12 points 10 rebounds 5 assists His 23.5 PRA line feels low considering he’s cleared it in 10/13 playoff games, but with the ankle situation, it’s tough for me to fully trust. 9. Devin Vassell continues to be huge for San Antonio. He finished Game 4 with: 13 points 6 rebounds 3 assists +27 Vassell talked about his role saying: “I’ve been trying to be super disruptive… being a leader on the court.” His 20.5 PRA line has now cleared in all 4 games against OKC this series, averaging 24.8 PRA. Another interesting quote from Vassell came when he was asked about the Spurs’ defensive adjustments: “I think we made a great defensive adjustment… it was about rotating to the shooters and not giving them so many wide-open threes.” That honestly makes me like SGA even more tonight. Feels like San Antonio’s gameplan is basically: “Let Shai beat us, just don’t let everyone else do it.” Let’s see how OKC responds tonight after that incredible defensive performance from San Antonio. If you made it this far, I appreciate y’all a lot❤️ A like, repost & follow is always much appreciated!
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Melo Edges
Melo Edges@LocksMelo·
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 Points (-120, 0.5u) The Spurs defended Shai differently last game. Instead of sending aggressive early doubles like they did in the first 3 games, they were helping later in possessions. That could actually benefit SGA, allowing him to attack early and get to his midrange spots before the help arrives. This also feels like a must-win game for OKC. You do NOT want to head back to San Antonio down 3-2 with how physical this series has been. Expecting Shai to come out aggressive tonight and put the offense on his back.
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Melo Edges
Melo Edges@LocksMelo·
SAS @ OKC GAME 5 BREAKDOWN🏀 (Series tied 2-2) 1. The Spurs just held OKC to 82 points, their lowest scoring game of the season. The Thunder couldn’t hit anything from deep, shooting just 6/33 from three (18%). Coach Mark Daigneault talked about the loss saying: “The reality is — we didn’t shoot it well, but they made nine threes and shot 27%, and one of them was like a half-court heave. It wasn’t like they shot lights out tonight. The game was won at the free throw line, on the glass, in transition.” Now back at home, I’m expecting OKC role players to shoot much better, and probably get a friendlier whistle too. 2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with just 19 points, only the 2nd time this season he failed to score 20+. I’m expecting a bounceback. The Spurs defended him differently last game. Instead of sending aggressive early doubles like the first 3 games, they were helping later in possessions. That could actually benefit Shai, letting him attack early and get to his midrange spots before the help comes. This also feels like a must-win spot for OKC. You do NOT want to head back to San Antonio down 3-2 with how physical this series has been. Expecting SGA to come out aggressive tonight. Already played SGA 30+ points👀 3. OKC needs more from Chet. After Game 1, Daigneault mentioned the Thunder don’t usually run many specific actions for Chet, but with JDub and Ajay out, that could change: “We went to him a little bit at different times. But I just thought the overall global approach offensively tonight didn’t benefit anybody.” Chet also wasn’t happy with his own performance: “No matter what I do out there, I always expect more for myself… I can see a lot of opportunities in the game where I have to be better.” He finished with 10 points, 9 rebounds, and a +2 net rating (2nd best on OKC). SGA also talked about getting him involved more: “Chet’s an easy target to find… just put him in better positions to use his strengths as an offensive talent.” Now seeing some 12.5 point lines for Chet, which feels low if they make a real effort to involve him offensively. 4. Isaiah Hartenstein only played 18 minutes last game, partially because of the blowout, but he was very effective early, scoring all 12 of his points in the first half. He took 11 shots total, with only 2 coming in the second half. I think OKC went away from him a bit because they were trailing most of the game, desperately needed more three-point shooting, and ended up playing a lot more Jay Will minutes because of that. I’d expect them to lean on IHart more tonight. He scored 7 of his 11 shots, off that floater he LOVES to use against taller bigs, and against Wemby’s drop coverage, it’s a great weapon. I think we could see a lot more of that tonight. After the game, Shai was asked how the offense changes without JDub and Ajay: “Play through the bigs a little bit more.” That immediately stood out to me. Feels like IHart is once again in a strong spot for production, and his lines are definitely interesting tonight. 5. OKC’s role players simply have to shoot better at home. In Game 3, the Thunder bench exploded for 76 points. Last game? Just 34. Jared McCain shot 1/10 Jaylin Williams 1/7 Aaron Wiggins 2/11 Cason Wallace 2/8 At home, I’d expect some positive shooting regression from this group. At the same time, the Spurs’ defense completely took them out of rhythm. De'Aaron Fox said after the game: “It’s never just black and white and that simple. But we contested 91% of shots today. That’s just a recipe to win a game.” I think both can be true: OKC should shoot better at home, but San Antonio also deserves a ton of credit for the defensive pressure they applied. 6. The Spurs played incredible defense in Game 4 and completely changed their approach on SGA. It worked. But offensively, San Antonio wasn’t exactly dominant either. They shot just 27% from three, and the biggest difference came at the free throw line: Spurs — 32 FTA Thunder — 18 FTA On the road, I’d expect that gap to shrink. 7. Victor Wembanyama was incredible once again: 33 points 8 rebounds 5 assists Before Game 4, Wemby said he wanted to do a better job finding teammates, and he backed that up with 5 assists. OKC simply hasn’t had answers for him so far. He’s now cleared 25.5 points in 3 of the 4 games this series. 8. De’Aaron Fox is still clearly dealing with that ankle sprain. When asked postgame if it felt better after the W, he simply responded: “No, it doesn’t. No.” Even through the injury, he still finished with: 12 points 10 rebounds 5 assists His 23.5 PRA line feels low considering he’s cleared it in 10/13 playoff games, but with the ankle situation, it’s tough for me to fully trust. 9. Devin Vassell continues to be huge for San Antonio. He finished Game 4 with: 13 points 6 rebounds 3 assists +27 Vassell talked about his role saying: “I’ve been trying to be super disruptive… being a leader on the court.” His 20.5 PRA line has now cleared in all 4 games against OKC this series, averaging 24.8 PRA. Another interesting quote from Vassell came when he was asked about the Spurs’ defensive adjustments: “I think we made a great defensive adjustment… it was about rotating to the shooters and not giving them so many wide-open threes.” That honestly makes me like SGA even more tonight. Feels like San Antonio’s gameplan is basically: “Let Shai beat us, just don’t let everyone else do it.” Let’s see how OKC responds tonight after that incredible defensive performance from San Antonio. If you made it this far, I appreciate y’all a lot❤️ A like, repost & follow is always much appreciated!
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Uzi
Uzi@uzi_bets·
Lightskin Duke Dennis Day? .75u on the 2+ Threes .5u on the 3+ Threes 💎 .25u on the 4+ Threes With lines being more sharp as these series get deeper, really not taking much outside of some value I see here. Love J-Will here though, as he’s seen an increase in minutes as the Spurs have been more willing to play Kornet minutes and have played some double-big mins at times. Also with J-Dub & Ajay out, OKC has been leaning on their bigs more as offensive hubs as most of their other pieces (McCain, Joe, Wiggins, etc) are best off the ball. Williams played 22 & 23 (16 prior to the blowout rotation) mins and has been just left wide open. Although the Spurs have went towards a more single coverage look for SGA, J-Will has been getting the Kornet/Wemby matchup where they have just left him wide open in either the pick & pop game or seeing open shots off of rotations. He finished with 1/5 on 3PAs that qualified as “wide open” (6+ feet from the closest defender) in Game 4 & was 5/6 in Game 3. He finished with 7 & 6 3PAs total in those games and even had 6 3PAs in G2 where he only played 10 mins. He even spoke about his shot saying, “We got a lot of good open shots. I'm confident in my shot. I shot terrible last game, I understand that. But if I get those same looks tonight, I’ll shoot them.” I would fully expect him to see 5+ 3PAs here tonight at home, where he averaged 2.6 3PMs when seeing those attempts and went over in 11/14 games.
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🏈
🏈@ThraxBets·
@LocksMelo What’s the move OKC full game or OKC 1H 🤔
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Melo Edges
Melo Edges@LocksMelo·
@nvdave04 Glad they’re helpful bro, means a lot to me!🤝 Appreciate you rocking with the writeups all series
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david
david@nvdave04·
@LocksMelo Man I appreciate all these write ups, they have help me all series
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Melo Edges
Melo Edges@LocksMelo·
Already dropped the full breakdown + one official play for tonight’s game in the free Discord🏀 SAN @ OKC Game 5. Will be posting it on X shortly👀
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Melo Edges
Melo Edges@LocksMelo·
05/25 NBA Recap🏀 3-1 | +0.88u ✅ Evan Mobley Under 12.5 RA ✅ Jaylon Tyson Over 4.5 PR ✅ OG Anunoby Over 20.5 PR ❌ Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Threes Made Sucks that Tyson missed some good looks and sold the lottos on the cord, but still a profitable day overall. Happy with the reads and the process once again. Mobley finishes 1/4 from deep, had the looks, just couldn’t knock down the second one. We move on to the West 👀
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Underdog NBA
Underdog NBA@UnderdogNBA·
Dennis Schroder (illness) ruled out Monday.
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rick james
rick james@BabyFaceBrad·
@LocksMelo what about his rebounds . i got his line at 1.5 to 4
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Melo Edges@LocksMelo·
OG Anunoby Over 20.5 PR (-113, FanDuel) | 0.5u OG looked great last game, finishing with 28 PR (21 pts, 7 reb) in 31 minutes. He was aggressive offensively and active on the glass all night. This will now be his 4th game back from the hamstring injury, and I think there’s a good chance his minutes continue trending up here. He’s cleared this line in 9/11 playoff games so far and is a perfect 4/4 on the road, averaging 33.5 PR away from home. He’s primarily being defended by James Harden, which is a matchup he can definitely take advantage of offensively. Defensively, OG is spending a lot of time around Jarrett Allen, which should keep him involved near the paint and give him solid rebounding opportunities as well.
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