Everyone's Unfriendly Neighborhood Batman

In mid-February, I had an idea to exploit mispricings on prediction markets. I spent the first week seeing if there was actually something there: building the strategy, testing it on historical data, and modeling slippage, fees, and execution as realistically as I could. Then I spent the next 2 weeks building the system, integrating with @Polymarket, paper trading the strategy, and tightening the simulator until it more closely matched live conditions. After that, I went live. 4 weeks later, the portfolio was up 170%. The strategy improved significantly during that stretch, but the edge held, so I added more capital. Now, 5 weeks in: • $100,238.94 in volume • 3,122 trades across 1,423 markets • 83.85% win rate • ~2% PnL on volume • ~$700 paid in Polymarket fees • 8.157 Sharpe I’ll write more about the full journey later. It’s been a long one. For now, the next upgrade is moving from taker to maker: better entries, no fees, rebates, and hopefully a much better system. P.S. If you find the account, don’t copy trade it. This is price sensitive, and being late can get ugly fast.

In mid-February, I had an idea to exploit mispricings on prediction markets. I spent the first week seeing if there was actually something there: building the strategy, testing it on historical data, and modeling slippage, fees, and execution as realistically as I could. Then I spent the next 2 weeks building the system, integrating with @Polymarket, paper trading the strategy, and tightening the simulator until it more closely matched live conditions. After that, I went live. 4 weeks later, the portfolio was up 170%. The strategy improved significantly during that stretch, but the edge held, so I added more capital. Now, 5 weeks in: • $100,238.94 in volume • 3,122 trades across 1,423 markets • 83.85% win rate • ~2% PnL on volume • ~$700 paid in Polymarket fees • 8.157 Sharpe I’ll write more about the full journey later. It’s been a long one. For now, the next upgrade is moving from taker to maker: better entries, no fees, rebates, and hopefully a much better system. P.S. If you find the account, don’t copy trade it. This is price sensitive, and being late can get ugly fast.

In mid-February, I had an idea to exploit mispricings on prediction markets. I spent the first week seeing if there was actually something there: building the strategy, testing it on historical data, and modeling slippage, fees, and execution as realistically as I could. Then I spent the next 2 weeks building the system, integrating with @Polymarket, paper trading the strategy, and tightening the simulator until it more closely matched live conditions. After that, I went live. 4 weeks later, the portfolio was up 170%. The strategy improved significantly during that stretch, but the edge held, so I added more capital. Now, 5 weeks in: • $100,238.94 in volume • 3,122 trades across 1,423 markets • 83.85% win rate • ~2% PnL on volume • ~$700 paid in Polymarket fees • 8.157 Sharpe I’ll write more about the full journey later. It’s been a long one. For now, the next upgrade is moving from taker to maker: better entries, no fees, rebates, and hopefully a much better system. P.S. If you find the account, don’t copy trade it. This is price sensitive, and being late can get ugly fast.

In mid-February, I had an idea to exploit mispricings on prediction markets. I spent the first week seeing if there was actually something there: building the strategy, testing it on historical data, and modeling slippage, fees, and execution as realistically as I could. Then I spent the next 2 weeks building the system, integrating with @Polymarket, paper trading the strategy, and tightening the simulator until it more closely matched live conditions. After that, I went live. 4 weeks later, the portfolio was up 170%. The strategy improved significantly during that stretch, but the edge held, so I added more capital. Now, 5 weeks in: • $100,238.94 in volume • 3,122 trades across 1,423 markets • 83.85% win rate • ~2% PnL on volume • ~$700 paid in Polymarket fees • 8.157 Sharpe I’ll write more about the full journey later. It’s been a long one. For now, the next upgrade is moving from taker to maker: better entries, no fees, rebates, and hopefully a much better system. P.S. If you find the account, don’t copy trade it. This is price sensitive, and being late can get ugly fast.