Demos

"[Lawyers] participate in the same instinctive love of order and of formalities [as aristocrats]; and they entertain the same repugnance to the actions of the multitude, and the same secret contempt of the government of the people." - Alexis de Tocqueville

I hope someone loves me as much as Gorsuch loves talking about Native Americans

@alexthechick GET THIS MAN HIS RUBBER STAMP

THE ENTIRE POINT OF THE SUPREME COURT IS TO CARE ONLY ABOUT CONSTITUTIONALITY! CONSTITIONAL BUT STUPID IS, IN FACT, A PROPER RULING! I am going to go bleach a whole forest of people's oxygen trees.

@HabCorpLinguist I agree. The only way he flips is if he’s comin along for the ride. I think he’s amenable to the govs reasoning for trying. So if we get in a situation where, it COULD be close, or it comes down to him. I think he may begrudgingly go along with it. Likely through a concurrence

@LostFederalist Gorsuch is a hard no imo. This sort of literal textualism without caring about intent is right up his alley.

Bookmarking this for when you’re wrong

@AndrewQuackson If you are a new lawyer or considering it, follow @JTAlexander_ He is always posting about this exact topic

Oral argument today went great. John Sauer is a patriot. If you are a young frog looking to get into politics, we need many more lawyers and competent attorneys than podcasters.

@HabCorpLinguist When Sauer started brining up floor debates in the first 10 mins I knew we were cooked

See if you can spot the sleight of hand. Not that the 14th Amendment still applies, but that the “spirit” and “intent” applies. Because these people know the text doesn’t support what they want.

@Fat_Electrician Reminder that Hamilton was running a business at 13 while

I fucking hate the “minimum wage is for high schoolers” talking point. A. No it isn’t, that’s historically inaccurate. B. Telling a kid to work hard and earn money the “right” way, then turning around and saying he deserves less just because of his age is bullshit. Pay should be based on performance. Nothing else. If you’re against raising the minimum wage, that’s fine. Make a better argument that isn’t belittling kids trying to work hard and earn something for themselves.

@pnwguerrilla I usually don’t buy reloaded ammo. I’ve always heard it’s bad. Is that just old boomer slop? Or are there legitimate downsides? Because god it’s so much cheaper…

That is my ammunition dealer 🫡

Trump v. Barbara Oral Argument Analysis Good News: My pessimistic prediction of 9-0 is unlikely. No mention of whether or not this could be achieved through executive order alone. Bad news: I was 100% right about us not getting Amy “Fuck Your Legislative History” Barrett. She was not buying Sauer’s arguments at all. And especially pushing on the fringes. Alito will probably lead the dissent. “Our immigration laws have been ineffectively and unenthusiastically enforced.” But nearly every justice pushed back on him. Lots of the focus was on the legislative history, and the interaction between Sauer and Jackson towards the end shows exactly why relying on legislative history is awful as they argued about which legislative history mattered more. But hey, Ilan Wurman got a shoutout Big W. Gorsuch seemed dubious on domicile. And as always “what about native Americans.” While Sauer gave him a favorable answer here, I don’t think even appealing to his special interest is going to be enough. Roberts pushed hard on the policy arguments of birth tourism, because “it has no impact on the legal analysis” “New world same constitution” GUHHH Now… Kavanaugh… He did throw Sauer a straight up meatball down the middle during questioning which is favorable. He also opened up questioning to the ACLU about exceptions. “are exceptions closed? Or can we expand this to things that were of foreseen at the time? Could there be additional exception?” However, I’m not sure it’s enough. Kagan, my girl, asked some good questions as per usual. Sotomayor made me want to scream. And Jackson agreed with Alito??? At one point. But ya know, “muh legislative history” So, where does this leave us? Starting with absolutes. The usually suspects + Barrett seems likely. Alito + Thomas dissent of course. So we’re starting down, 2-4. Roberts seems like a no, unfortunately. 2-5. And Gorsuch probably follows. 6-2. So where does that leave our boy Brett “Automatic” Kavanaugh Here’s the deal. I think Kavanaugh is pretty amenable to our side, however, I’m not quite sure he’s willing to be the dissent of a 6-3 decision here. If Roberts or Gorsuch flips and we are sitting at 5-3, then I think you get Kavanaugh and we go 5-4, and the other writes the majority. My prediction: 7-2 Roberts Majority, Kavanaugh concurs, Alito and Thomas Dissent, or 5-4 Gorsuch Majority, we lose either way. Alito, Kavanaugh, Roberts, Thomas Dissent. Brief optimism at the end. I think knowing where SCOTUS is on this is still a move in the right direction. Let’s be happy we are here. And the way the Court rules, could give us some insight on how we can and should proceed. Although, we won’t get a nice “here’s step by step instruction manual on how you can avoid coming back in 6 months” in a Kavanaugh concurrence in a 7-2 opinion.

@HabCorpLinguist I agree. I’m going to post my overall thoughts later, but his is my assumption. I think the only way you get Kavanaugh is if we were already sitting at 4-4 and he needed to break the tie. I think he would. But he isn’t going to break for 6-3. He’s just going to join the majority

The case will be 8-1 or 7-2. Barrett will not be the deciding vote. And you’ll still be gutter trash.

I pray that one day, someone will love me as much as Gorsuch loves Native Americans. Sauer needed time to think to figure out which answer is more favorable to Native Americans, so he could guarantee Gorsuch's vote

x.com/LostFederalist… Called it

I hope someone loves me as much as Gorsuch loves talking about Native Americans

@MattZeitlin Whitepill

damn he's really just opening up the app at 9:45 pm and founders posting

@DEvansworth Yea I haven’t listened to OA yet. This was my pre-OA prediction

@LostFederalist It’s gonna be 7-2 or 6-3. Gorsuch just beat the shit out of the SG, Robert’s called out how insane their position is. Kav is the only swing

Early Birthright citizenship prediction Pessimistic: 9-0, procedural grounds about EO dodging the issue. Prediction: 7-2. Alito Thomas Dissent Optimistic: 5-4: Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Thomas, Alito Dissent. Hopium: 5-4: + Roberts I don’t think we get Barrett tbh.

@LeadingReport OH NO!! We should immediately pass an act that requires voter ID to SAVE AMERICA!!

BREAKING: Rep. Nancy Pelosi says Republicans may hack into voting machines to win the midterms. “They may try to creep into the technology and create a false count.”

@upstatefederlst Your forget that the executive has a secret power

If one branch has a final say and the other two cannot object, then how are they co-equal, in your estimation?

@AGPamBondi @ThomBrady5 @TheJusticeDept x.com/lostfederalist…

Our attorneys @TheJusticeDept just secured a crucial win for America-first policies: Kentucky can no longer give in-state tuition benefits to illegal aliens. Americans will NOT be treated like second-class citizens in their own country. President Trump made it clear via executive order: illegal aliens should not obtain taxpayer benefits or preferential treatment. This DOJ is carrying that out via litigation across the country.