Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
UPDATE: I’m really struggling to call what happens next
On one hand, Trump needs an off-ramp to limit the global economic damage and growing domestic political pressure
Iran would also like this war to end before more cities are leveled and more leaders are killed
On the other hand, Iran is doing surprisingly well controlling the Strait, striking the Gulf and Israel, and selling oil for more than twice the price than before the war, making a killing
And on the American side, troops are heading to the region for what increasingly looks like a ground operation to control Hormuz
Negotiations are the most promising development since February 28th. But Iran's warnings to Gulf nations against supporting any ground operation, combined with maximalist demands from both sides, make a deal unlikely in the short term