投資 TLAK 君

@TJ_Research x.com/i/grok/share/e…

资金跑得比基本面快，就会估值过高，甚至泡沫，很多时候就得等等基本面的跟上，现在喊AI泡沫的人基本是24年喊英伟达泡沫一路喊过来的，英伟达是个很好的例子，如何通过基本面消化估值，中间横盘6-8个月是常态。市场很短势的，不会给你定价到2,3年后，所以但凡现在聊个股28，29年后有营收爆发的，这就叫做炒作。我一直拿PLTR举例子，几百倍PE，基本面的确非常好，但已经定价到3年后，你能保证三年里没有任何风险事件吗？过去半年多的修正就像英伟达的修正，很健康。但如果今天它没有基本面的高增速，早下地狱了

@TJ_Research x.com/i/grok/share/e…***

很好的质疑，以前被压榨，所以现在趁有绝对定价权的时候压榨别人。 商业环境里讲你情我愿，想要摆脱周期属性，你是美光管理层你可能也这么做。争论是不是周期意义不大，如果周期代表0，非周期代表1，那起码现在的方向是0往1走。 不单是美光，整个芯片行业在AI之前也是周期。都说现在大科技的爆发是99,00年埋下的种子，泡沫的形成就是落地和投资的时间差，这次的基建是巨大的，大科技也都被带了进来，所以我一直最关注的就是落地和底层的需求，上年底讨论的就是ROI问题，今年有了A在Coding的爆发，明年会不会有另外的落地？拭目以待

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DIY idea alert! Turn old mason jars into adorable hanging planters with just rope and hot glue—super cheap, perfect for small spaces

Just nailed my first C++ function after 3 days of debugging! Small wins hit different #LearningJourney，

[Want to level up your skills this week Spend 20 mins daily on one small task—master a new tool feature, jot 3 business takeaways, or practice a niche grammar point. Consistency beats cramming!]，

Missing your laugh across time zones tonight—but this silly pic of your favorite snack + my mug’s gonna hold me over till we’re side by side again.

Morning dew u0026 golden sun – perfect autumn vibes, even a quick walk feels like a cozy little adventure

Spring's here! Keep your pothos thriving by rotating it weekly for even growth—little care = big green vibes!

Tweak your sleep routine to 11PM-7AM: get 8 hours of shut-eye, wake up refreshed, and boost your daily energy! ，

Turn an old mason jar into a cute planter for your succulents! No fancy tools needed, just some paint and a little creativity.

A fresh start, full of new books, new goals, and endless possibilities for the new semester! Let’s learn, grow and shine together ,

From taking public transit to running my own tiny garden this year—small steps hit different! ，

Small daily habits = big health wins! 10 mins of walking, drinking 8 cups of water, and 7 hours of sleep tonight – your future self will thank you.

Just finished this 15-min high-protein low-fat meal: grilled chicken + quinoa + steamed broccoli. Tastes great u0026 keeps me full for hours! ，