LuDAO启航录

813 posts

LuDAO启航录

LuDAO启航录

@LuDAOInv

DAO常无为,而无不为。如果你相信长期价值,相信复利,关注我。我只分享无论10年还是20年都有用的长期认知与财富思维。已定投btc 8年的我

Katılım Mart 2024
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Lao Mao
Lao Mao@Imlaomao·
@00002_eth 这么想当然没错,如果他保证永远 700,我也订阅。
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Lao Mao
Lao Mao@Imlaomao·
在中国买了特斯拉 AI4 芯片的车主, 64000 买断特斯辅助驾驶,可能是未来几年里最划算的一笔消费,要不等没有买断时候就要拍大腿了。
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
@Boqll5Tppdalvtw 实际上: 大多数富人并没有移民 很多人只是配置海外身份 很多人是资产全球化,而不是永久离开母国 还有大量企业家长期“两边跑”
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李总财经
李总财经@Boqll5Tppdalvtw·
为什么有钱人很多都移民了? 我最近看到一段话,给出了答案: 不要选故土,要选沃土。 赚了钱不要老家盖别墅,钱一旦用来向过去证明,那你的人生就停了,这是阶层锁死的开始。 真正向上走的人赚了钱以后只会做一件事,那就是提升自己,离开旧的环境。 因为旧的环境会不断的定义你,你是谁,怎么花钱,你该怎么活,而你一旦迎合就回不去了。 不要迎合离旧落寞的环境,不要回家乡当第一,而是要去更大的世界,成为更小的一部分。 不要想着落叶归根,而是要落地生根,你在哪哪就是最好的环境。
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
@Boqll5Tppdalvtw 真正重要的, 未必是“离开故乡”。 而是: 你有没有进入一个能持续让你成长的环境
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
如果看: 未来10-20年 Vitalik 其实是在赌: “数字世界最终会需要一个不能被任何人控制的公共层。” 如果这个判断成立: ETH 的长期价值逻辑会非常强。
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
坚持难而长期有用的事情
vitalik.eth@VitalikButerin

Some of my perspective on where the @ethereumfndn is going. First of all, this is only my own view. The board is not just me, and I have no extra special powers on the board that the other board members do not. @aerugoettinea is the one executing much of this transition. My input has been largely on technical questions. The board is in the process of expanding, and my own power within the org will continue to decrease, which is honestly what I want. The 2025 era brought many important improvements to EF and its ability to execute. Many issues were resolved, and EF continues to benefit from its improved efficiency and greater focus on concrete goals to this day. And so with those problems resolved, early this year, the largest remaining hole that I perceived was something different nagging at me: I would regularly spot people saying things like "vitalik says these beautiful things about ethereum needing to be decentralized, and have privacy, and be a sanctuary technology, but why do the EF's actions not reflect that?" Now, you may have been hearing something different. You may not have been sensing a feeling of crisis at all, and maybe were hearing people saying that finally we were taking execution and BD seriously and the main task for us is to keep going that way and be even better and faster. Then probably there is genuine difference between you and me, in what kinds of criticism I take most seriously, and what kinds of critics through their criticism are most able to make me feel pain. As an analogy, let's briefly switch over to a different domain. One belief you can have about Google is that it is a success story, and has brought a lot of good to humanity in organizing the world's information. Another belief you can have about Google is that they had a beautiful idealistic beginning, but at some point the corruption of mainstream corporate attitudes seeped in, and they slowly bit by bit completely abandoned the "don't be evil" slogan. My belief on Google specifically is probably somewhere between the two. BUT, if you had taken me back in time to ~2008, and offered me a button to press to make Google one or two standard deviations more "dogmatic", eg. give Richard Stallman permanent veto power over some key policies, I would immediately press it. Why? Because a choice for one company is not a choice for the world, or even one country. Google existed and exists in the context of a technology industry generally drifting away from early idealistic don't-be-evil roots and toward greed for financial gain, totalizing visions of accelerated superintelligence, infiltration by sociopaths, and craven capitulation to (or worse, active participation in) government pressure for ideological control, surveillance and war. And so *one company* doing something different, positioning itself to be what George Bernard Shaw calls the Unreasonable Man, resisting the trend of the times, would have been better for freedom, balance of power and stability of society as a whole, than *all* large companies bending to dominant trends. This is a part of my version of pluralism. This line of thinking is not just mine, but I also is not too far off from what Aya and others had in mind with the Mandate. Now how does this all get to the role of the EF? EF is not a "center of Ethereum", rather EF is "one node, with a defined purpose, alongside other nodes". We've always said that the EF should be the latter, but many in the Ethereum ecosystem (and even within the EF) wanted us to be the former. Now, we are taking action to ensure that we will be the latter. This is particularly important because EF is a limited organization, with limited resources and limited organizational capacity. The EF has only ~0.16% of all ETH (less than many other individual ETH holders), whereas among other blockchains it's common for "the central foundation" to have 10-50%. Fiscally, the EF was originally designed to fulfill a limited work scope defined in the token sale docs and other pre-launch materials (building the chain software; getting through Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis, Serenity), which was fully completed in 2022; it was not designed to be an eternal steward. And so today, the EF is choosing to use its remaining resources to pursue longevity over breadth (yes, this means we sell less ETH). The EF focuses *specifically* on those activities critical to the success of ethereum as a censorship/capture-resistant, open, private and secure system, that would not happen otherwise. This means making hard choices, and in some cases even activities that we highly approve of and people that we highly respect becoming outside of the EF. People of great technical talent, public respect and even alignment with the mission and CROPS being outside of the EF is in fact necessary if we want important tasks to be able to attract outside capital. This also means the EF taking opinionated stands culturally. This is all intended in cooperation with all other parts of ethereum. We recognize that many other parts of the ethereum world highly respect CROPS and related values. But highly respecting is not the same as choosing to specialize and totally dedicate to a domain (Compare in a different domain: I think reducing animal cruelty is important, and I like vegan food, but am not full unconditional vegan myself) EF is still in a transition period, and we expect its new long-term form to stabilize over the next few months. What are the guiding principles of this new form? Again, I am only one person, but I can give my answer from a technical perspective (there are also critical non-technical aspects). At the core, *Ethereum must be impressive*. We are living in an age of highly intelligent AI and all kinds of other technological acceleration. "Status quo EVM, with a hard fork or two a year to optimize for short-term needs of users" is not interesting. To some, "impressive" means: 250ms latency and 1M TPS. I think Ethereum trying to go that route is a mistake. Being as fast and as scalable as possible, and only a small epsilon more decentralized than the others, is a route to mediocrity, and if we try it we will lose. I think Ethereum should scale. But I think Ethereum should strive the hardest to be deeply impressive in a different dimension: the CROPS dimension. This means things like: * Provably bug-free Ethereum. This is a goal that all cybersecurity researchers would have thought is absurd and impossible, up until roughly 6 months ago. Now, it's on the cusp of being possible, thanks to AI-assisted formal verification. So we should be frontrunners in doing this. * Available chain consensus. Ethereum is, and with lean consensus will cotninue to be, the ONLY chain that has both (i) traditional-BFT style properties that it's safe under asynchrony up to a high level of fault tolerance, and (ii) the bitcoin PoW-style property that under synchrony it's safe up to 49% attackers. As far as I can tell, literally no other chain has this or is planning for it; bitcoin goes for (ii) only and most other chains go for (i) only. Some will remember I fought hard for this, Unreasonably insisting that it is not OK for ethereum to rely on social consensus and hard forks to rescue ethereum from 34% of nodes going offline. It's OK for chains like hyperledger, bnb, solana, tempo, etc. It's not OK for bitcoin or ethereum or eg. zcash. * Intermediary minimization. The fact that smart contract wallets, protocols like railgun, etc have to send transactions through intermediaries to get included onchain is honestly embarrassing, and it's a constant point of fragility. Hence the work on FOCIL and EIP-8141 (and 7701 and years of work before) to make transaction sending intermediary-minimized with public mempool and strong inclusion properties, in a truly general-purpose way, that covers not just eg. secp256r1, but also privacy protocols and much more. Kohaku is pushing intermediary minimization at the user layer, pulling Ethereum away from the dystopian status quo world where our wallets don't even verify the chain, send our private data out to a dozen third-party servers, and toward a brighter CROPS future. Some of these goals are Unreasonable - maybe Ethereum would be "fine" getting only 50% of the way - what if we depend on intermediaries, but make it easy to switch? But going 50% of the way would not make Ethereum Deeply Impressive in the CROPS way. So we push for 100%. Fortunately all these goals are compatible with high TPS, this is a major focus of research (esp. on scaling the state). Well-designed L2s can also help, especially L2s optimized for specific applications (eg. high-volume trading, privacy...). These goals are even compatible with significantly lower slot times, thanks to Raul's work on erasure-coded P2P, and many other optimizations. The most high-value "product" of the ethereum blockchain, financially speaking, is ETH the asset. Ethereum secures $250 billion of ETH. The types of properties of Ethereum that I mentioned above are very good for ETH the asset. Nearly 90% of my net worth is in ETH, and most of the remainder is ~$40m of onchain fiat of which every dollar has already been allocated for some open-source biotech or software or hardware initiative. That said, there are aspects of supporting ETH the asset - *necessary* aspects even - that are outside the scope of the EF. This is where we need other heroes (some of whom hold more ETH than the EF does) to step in and help. EF has been recently thinking more about how it will relate to other such organizations, and give them needed initial support. EF will be a smaller ship than in previous years, a more opinionated one - in some cases more opinionated in ways that might be difficult to comprehend - but a longer-lasting one, and one suited to making sure that ethereum brings something meaningful to the world. We are grateful to all those inside and outside the EF who are helping to make this happen.

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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
这篇《Why the CLARITY Act Quietly Makes Ethereum the Biggest Winner in Crypto》的核心,其实不是在讲短期价格。 它真正讲的是: 一旦美国通过 CLARITY Act,ETH 的“资产属性”会发生根本性重估。 作者的逻辑大概分成 6 层。 ⸻ 1. CLARITY Act 在干什么? 核心是: 美国第一次尝试明确区分: 什么是证券(security) 什么是商品/数字资产(commodity / digital commodity) 过去几年,整个加密市场最大的问题之一就是: “SEC 到底会不会突然说你是证券?” 这个不确定性, 让很多机构不敢真正大规模进入。 ⸻ 2. 法案提出了一个“去中心化测试” 文章最核心的一部分,就是这个。 它说: 未来可能会用几个标准判断一个链是不是“真正独立运行”。 大概包括: 是否开源 是否 permissionless(无需许可) 是否有人能控制升级 是否有人能冻结用户 是否有人持有过多代币 是否依赖某个公司继续运营 而作者认为: ETH 是目前唯一一个: “同时满足规模 + 去中心化 + 机构接受度”的主流智能合约链。 ⸻ 3. 为什么 ETH 是最大赢家? 因为 ETH 过去最大的两个空头逻辑: 空头逻辑一: “ETH 会不会被 SEC 定义为证券?” CLARITY Act 如果通过, ETH 很可能被归类为: digital commodity(数字商品/资产) 监管权偏向 CFTC。 这意味着: ETF 更容易扩张 银行更敢托管 养老金更容易配置 华尔街更容易做 ETH 产品 监管风险会下降很多。 ⸻ 空头逻辑二: “ETH 会不会被更快的链替代?” 文章认为: 真正重要的不是 TPS。 而是: “谁能成为全球金融系统默认接受的链上结算层。” 作者的观点是: Solana 很快 Sui 很快 Avalanche 很快 但它们很多都存在: 团队控制权 token 集中 升级权限 治理中心化 所以在“监管时代”, 这些链可能更像: 科技公司股权 而不是“全球中立资产”。 ⸻ 4. 文章最关键的一句话 它其实在重新定义 ETH。 作者认为: BTC 是: 数字黄金 而 ETH 更像: 全球链上金融基础设施 programmable asset(可编程资产) Internet-native reserve asset 也就是: ETH 不只是一个 token。 而可能变成: 稳定币结算层 RWA(现实资产上链) DeFi ETF 链上银行系统 背后的“储备资产”。 ⸻ 5. 为什么作者特别强调“货币溢价”? 这是这篇文章最深的地方。 他说: 很多链的估值, 未来可能会越来越像: SaaS 公司估值 即: 收入 利润 现金流 决定估值上限。 但 ETH 一旦被全球机构接受为: 中立的数字金融储备资产 那么它会拥有: monetary premium(货币溢价) 类似: 黄金 美国国债 BTC 这种资产。 而货币溢价最大的特点是: 估值上限会非常高。 因为人们持有它, 不只是为了“使用”, 而是为了: 储备 抵押 信任 清算 全球流动性。 ⸻ 6. 这篇文章为什么最近突然爆火? 因为它击中了市场最近最大的变化: 过去几年: 市场一直把 ETH 当“老公链”。 现在开始有人重新讨论: ETH 会不会其实是未来全球链上金融系统的“基础资产”。 这两个叙事, 估值逻辑完全不同。 一个像: 科技项目 另一个像: 数字时代的金融底层资产。 ⸻ 但也要注意: 这篇文章是明显偏 ETH 多头视角的。 它默认了几个前提: CLARITY Act 真能通过 美国长期支持 crypto ETH 能持续保持去中心化 L2 不会削弱 ETH 价值捕获 机构最终会选择 ETH 作为主结算层 这些其实都还存在争议。
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
币圈日子是不是越来越难过了?按周期来看,离熊转牛的日子也越来越近了,不必慌张,该干啥干啥,有钱加仓,没钱就牢牢握住手里的筹码
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
真正强的人, 往往不是: “知道很多的人”。 而是: 能长期保持清醒的人。 而清醒, 在 AI 时代, 会越来越稀缺。
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Snowball(抓住金狗版)🔶 BNB ETHGas ⛽️ 🤖ボッ🦅
我亲眼见证了五个朋友返贫 1、第一个朋友,家里拆迁赔了四百多万,全款买了房,结果房子烂尾,拆迁款等于在卡里过了一下,啥也没留下 2、第二个朋友,跟合伙人开餐厅,每人投一百多万,每天营业额不到一千块,除去房租水电人工,一年到头倒贴钱 3、第三个朋友,酒后讲义气,借给发小八十万救急,结果发小投资失败,公司倒闭,钱要不回来,至今还在打官司 4、第四个朋友,为人仗义,听不得好话,一夸就飘,替老同学担保三百多万,同学没钱跑了,他背连带责任,成了冤大头 5、第五个朋友,是位老师,平时抠抠搜搜,把所有钱都投进股市,账户不断贬值还不舍得割肉,一家老小至今住不到四十平的一室一厅 这些事,于你于我,都是警醒
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
我有个习惯。 每次做决定之前,先问自己一句话—— 这个念头,是我自己生出来的,还是被放进来的? 听起来简单。 但这一句话,救了我很多次。 ⸻ 人生有一种最安静的失控。 你每天都在做选择, 但那些选择,其实都是别人替你设计好的。 你刷到什么,不是巧合。 你焦虑什么,不是你的性格。 你觉得自己"应该"拥有什么—— 背后都有一套系统,在替你回答。 这套系统不是你的敌人。 它只是有自己的目标。 而那个目标,从来不包括让你真正自由。 ⸻ 我入市八年,见过太多人在错误的时间做错误的事。 不是因为不聪明。 是因为他们的判断,是被市场情绪实时生成的。 涨的时候觉得一切都对。 跌的时候觉得自己从来就不该进来。 我也有过这种感觉。 后来我给自己立了一条很笨的规则: 不允许在情绪的高峰和低谷做任何决策。 规则本身什么都不是。 但它帮我穿过了好几次,我本来一定会犯大错的时刻。 ⸻ 我后来慢慢明白—— 真正的"自我教育",不是读更多书,听更多课。 而是: 主动设计自己的信息环境,和自己的决策规则。 让对的系统替你工作。 让错的系统进不来。 这件事,没有门槛。 只是很少有人告诉过你,你可以这样做。 ⸻ 人与人之间最深的差距, 不是努力,不是天赋,不是运气。 是:你有没有意识到,自己一直在被塑造。 以及—— 你有没有开始,主动选择被什么塑造。 这两件事,想清楚一件, 就已经赢过大多数人了
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
叛逆中年老登 主歌1 人到半生晃着旧皮囊 烟火磨平年少的锋芒 嘴上说着岁月要安详 心里还藏一身野倔强 柴米油盐捆住了日常 房贷账单压弯了肩膀 旁人劝我安分守着场 偏要跟平庸掰一掰手掌 预副歌 不再讨好谁的眼光 懒得伪装温柔模样 半生风雨没投降 老骨头依旧滚烫 副歌 我是叛逆中年老登 不肯乖乖认命 满身风霜 仍敢任性 不被世俗定义输赢 生活磨碎一身棱角 心还不肯平静 半生倔强 半生清醒 中年也有少年性情 主歌2 看过人情冷暖的慌张 历经世事反复的无常 不再跟风世俗的风向 自有分寸守住心一方 别人忙着安稳入寻常 我偏逆流撞一撞南墙 半生奔波未丢轻狂 老来也做不羁模样 预副歌 褪去青涩不再慌张 固执依旧刻在胸膛 历经沧桑不投降 傲骨从来没投降 副歌 我是叛逆中年老登 不肯乖乖认命 满身风霜 仍敢任性 不被世俗定义输赢 生活磨碎一身棱角 心还不肯平静 半生倔强 半生清醒 中年也有少年性情 桥段 岁月催老了脸庞 磨不灭心底疯狂 中年不是投降收场 是活得更坦荡 尾段 半生人间一趟 不做世俗皮囊 叛逆中年老登 一生热烈坦荡
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
@lanhubiji 短期看似正确的操作其实和大部分散户并没有太大区别,他们做不到像长期主义者那样真正的长期。
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蓝狐
蓝狐@lanhubiji·
哈佛在2026年Q1清仓了以太坊ETF,比特币ETF也大幅减仓。其实也算不上是惊天反转的事情。 这是很正常的机构操作。 哈佛捐赠基金(Harvard Management Company)管理大约500多亿美元的大规模资产,加密ETF在里面占比本来就很小(这次清仓ETH后+减IBIT后,剩的IBIT也就1.17亿美元左右)。 它们的逻辑不是散户的逻辑,有自己的机构投资纪律: 其中最最重要的一点是:资产再平衡+风险控制。 大学捐赠基金规模大,有受托责任,有自己的KPI、风险模型和流动性需求。这一点,只要在大公司或大机构工作过的人都会感同身受吧。大机构不是散户,不会随意梭哈。 首要一点是控制波动、保证充足流动性。此外,还得私募股权等其他长期投资。 去年Q4时,哈佛捐赠基金还减持BTC并新增ETH(减持IBIT卖入ETH ETF),而现在因为Q1表现太差(波动大,没起色),直接卖了,BTC也减仓了43%。 可以理解为战术性撤退,而不是彻底看空。当加密资产重新进入热门资产行列,它们还会回来的。 最后一点,13F备案只是滞后快照(反映3月底持仓),机构每天都在交易,如果它们后来重新买入也未可知。 此外,大机构也不是都有相同的市场看法。 同一时间,阿布扎比主权财富基金 Mubadala 反而把IBIT加仓16%,持仓升到约5.66亿美元,已经连续5个季度在增持。 其他大学如Dartmouth也稳住BTC。 市场本来就是有买有卖才存在的。
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蓝狐
蓝狐@lanhubiji·
不担心加密市场被AI吸走流动性,更担心AI泡沫会不会破灭。这反而会显著延长加密熊市的时间。 “吃肉没吃到,挨打没落下”,这是加密市场尴尬的地方。
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
真正的财富,从来不是钱本身。 而是:你有没有权利,决定自己的时间属于谁。 留钱给孩子,不一定是好事。 但如果你能留下一种方法,一种对时间的理解,并且以身作则—— 那这个东西,才可能真正改变一个家族。
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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
4月23日,Aave服务提供商正式发起”DeFi United”——一个跨协议救援基金,目标是募集10万ETH来恢复rsETH的背书。截至4月24日,已经归集了约69,534 ETH(约1.61亿美元)。
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红神
红神@hongshen6666btc·
Xchat 才第一天 给他点时间 朋友们要进群的速度留言,我整个群。
红神 tweet media
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sunlc.ai
sunlc.ai@sunlc_crypto·
作为一个从事FICC业务超过15年的老炮,非常认同付鹏FICC+C的说法。币圈绝大部分垃圾币已经证伪了,只有少数价值币如BTC和ETH会成为FICC中的最后一个C即commodity(已实现)。而传统FICC标的也会和区块链深度融合即RWA(正在实现)
PANews丨APP全面升级@PANewsCN

x.com/i/article/2047…

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LuDAO启航录
LuDAO启航录@LuDAOInv·
@lanhubiji 哈哈 不管到多少,闭着眼定投大饼和二饼,直到永远
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蓝狐
蓝狐@lanhubiji·
比Tom Lee预测更大胆的E卫兵出现了。 Michael McGuiness和Vivek Raman认为: 历史上第一次出现了一种“既是顶级货币,又能自动增值”的资产——ETH。 黄金和比特币是“死资本”,ETH是“活资本”,活的肯定赢。所以ETH要起飞,25万美元只是起点。 productivemoney.org
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