Luke Tryl

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Luke Tryl

Luke Tryl

@LukeTryl

Lover of finding out what people think, UK Director @Moreincommon_ 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦

London, England Katılım Aralık 2016
3.1K Takip Edilen26.4K Takipçiler
Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
There’s a risk to Reform of failing to recognise that most of the public make quite a clear distinction between straight talking (one of the things many like about Farage) and what they will see as unnecessarily rude/nasty or just UnBritish coming from a politician.
ITVPolitics@ITVNewsPolitics

'I really wanted to come on in a Reform tartan burka, but apparently I wasn't allowed' 'On day lets do one of these events not livestreamed. We'll do all the naughty stuff' Sarah Pochin says she wants to wear a tartan burka at Reform's Scottish Election launch

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Kyle Butcher
Kyle Butcher@KyleButcher·
@LukeTryl If that's made as humerous observation, I apologise for taking it literally in what follows... ...but the 'serious disease outbreak' in question is just incomparible in pretty much every which way! The energy price shock, however, is a quite different matter.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
The Gods evidentially decided that the UK dealing with a serious disease outbreak and an energy price shock sequentially rather than simultaneously hadn’t proved trying enough for us.
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Luke Tryl retweetledi
Tim (still totally unremarkable)
Tim (still totally unremarkable)@forwardnotback·
My allowed political post today to amplify this Almost every bit of the appeal of Farage and Polanski is rooted it people’s despair and tiredness of everything being broken/not working and the cost-of-living-crisis They voted for change which isn’t happening fast enough so …
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl

Still think too much of response to Polanski and Farage relies on “well populists can say that/fantasy economics” without properly engaging with the fact that in both distinct and similar ways both of them have narratives about giving people agency/hope things can be better

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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Not a comment on merits of the above (although I helped work on equal marriage campaign so no secret my views on that!) just examples of campaigns I think have so successfully achieved their goals and particularly by swinging median decision maker consensus.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Would say the two most successful 21st Century UK social issue campaigns: Pro gay marriage (big shift in attitudes in short space of time) Anti Assisted Dying (even against public in principle consensus, and shifting elites during process) What have I missed (am sure loads!)?
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Again I think big part of challenge is lots of mainstream commentariat/decision making are in our established liberal segment the group least likely to think Britain is broken, so struggle to engage with fact eg 59% of public now think cost of living crisis will never end. More on that divide below.
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl

🧵Lots of debate at the moment on how real the 'Broken Britain' narrative is & particularly a rise in commentariat push back on idea Britain is in a really bad way. Without weighing in on who is right, I think our Established Liberal segment can help explain the outlook divide

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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Also doesn’t mean not challenging Reform/Greens from pure strategy PoV think one of sunak’s biggest mistakes was never taking fight to Reform when he could have. But if you’re going to criticise opponents policies, that will only land if you have hopeful offer.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Still think too much of response to Polanski and Farage relies on “well populists can say that/fantasy economics” without properly engaging with the fact that in both distinct and similar ways both of them have narratives about giving people agency/hope things can be better
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Given suggestions the Government should go further in subsidising bills again because of the conflict in Iran we wanted to look at what sort of govt interventions/policies were/weren't affordable. 50% think govt could subsidise bills to stop the impact of the war, 38% disagree
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Party splits are interesting Labour voters are most likely to think Govt could subsidise bills and only group where a majority think 5% defence spending is affordable Majority of Greens back UBI as affordable & that the govt could forgive loans/bail out struggling universities. *(People sometimes ask how the all can be higher than the party votes, it's because lots of non-voters say don't know)
Luke Tryl tweet media
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
By 51% to 32% people think the triple lock is sustainable for another 10 years It's a 43% to 46% split on whether the Govt could afford to do UBI. But by 24% to 60% people don't think the Government could run another furlough scheme.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
@DAaronovitch Yes definitely! I was actually making the case the other way, the suggestion often seen on here is that by the govt making announcements (which do get coverage) all it does is raise the salience and yet that is not the case from this.
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David Aaronovitch
David Aaronovitch@DAaronovitch·
@LukeTryl You imply that the announcements have led to the dip, Luke, but that’s purely conjectural isn’t it? Have you tested public awareness of those announcements? Could it be that the news cycle has moved on and that salience is as much a matter of media attention as anything else?
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Cost of living dominates top issues this week - 7 in 10 Brits pick it 💷 Cost of Living 69% 🏥NHS 35% 🛃 Levels of immigration* 28% 🛥️ Channel crossings* 26% 🇮🇷Conflict in the Middle East 23% *44% selecting at least one (excluding double counters) of immigration or crossings
Luke Tryl tweet media
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
No, because longevity plays a major role we are newer, we have only done one election (and were more accurate than lots of pollsters above us on that measure) but we haven’t been around for as long so get a lower score (I understand why they include longevity but not same as accuracy)
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Dr Emily Harris
Dr Emily Harris@DrEmilyHarris·
@LukeTryl Can you help me to understand this graph Luke. Is it based largely on accuracy?
Dr Emily Harris tweet media
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Small changes to this week’s voting intention. Reform & Labour down slightly, Tories & Greens up. Reform lead Tories by 7 ➡️ REF UK 28% (-2) 🌳 CON 21% (+2) 🌹 LAB 20% (-2) 🌍 GREEN 13% (+2) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1) ❓OTH 4% (+1) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,402 | 13-16/3| Change w 9/03
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The AZE
The AZE@the_aze·
@LukeTryl MSM & politicians have created a binary approach to immigration - either EVERY foriegner is bad or EVERY foreigner is good - both polar points are bollox & unBritish Immigration debate is now solely on polar BS rather than on how immigration can help UK & how UK can help others
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Rayner right to say Brits generally tend to oppose retrospective changes. But worries about sheer level of net migration at end of last government means many including majority of 2024 lab voters think we need to think again about the length of time before people qualify for ILR
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Keşfet

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