Luke Tryl

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Luke Tryl

Luke Tryl

@LukeTryl

Lover of finding out what people think, UK Director @Moreincommon_ 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦

London, England Katılım Aralık 2016
3.2K Takip Edilen28.2K Takipçiler
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
🧵Some initial reflections in the lull in English results. Foremost this was yet another change election. People just aren’t happy, they want something different. Unlike previous elections they didn’t respond by flipping from one big party to the other but by rejecting both the big two.
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The Opinion Brief
The Opinion Brief@opinionbriefpod·
Could Labour beat Reform with Andy Burnham as leader? @LukeTryl - "New hypothetical polling with Burnham as leader turns a 7 point lead for Reform UK into a 3 point lead for Labour." Find the full episode here: tr.ee/pMONGLjEql
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
@cezthesocialist Wonder if that is partly entrenched anti Tory tribalism among some Labour voters?
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
The broad trend has been Labour and Reform switching out on top, though the number saying they’d vote against Reform has dipped (it seems among Conservatives voters). The number saying they’d vote against the Greens has risen, both as they maybe more polarising but also a sign of greater relevance.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Tactical voting is now a feature of the landscape, and so as well as our normal voting intention we track negative voting intention (who would Britons vote AGAINST): 🌹Lab 35% (+1) ➡️ Ref 32% (-6) 🌏 Green 11% (+4) 🌳 Con 7% (-) 🐦‍ LD 5% (+2) changes w/ Mar 2025
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
@Jeffrey62093861 But that’s actually a really good point! Lots of people say we feel like we are slipping backwards, we used to be able to do treats for kids but now it feels more like when we were growing up.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
This framing from the chancellor on her cost of living package today is quite important. Why? Because in focus group after group people talk about one of the most miserable parts of the cost of living is having to give up little treats for them but particularly their kids.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
And ultimately though the measures are at the margins there is merit to “every little helps”. I wonder had govt come in more in this spirit they may have avoided their poor start and things might be different now.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
The first 18 months and the focus on growth growth growth (while important) missed the mark while people felt their living standards were falling and they were “just living to work and working to live”. That changed in the budget with prescriptions, rail fares, energy levies
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Matt Singh
Matt Singh@MattSingh_·
Illustration of why people who say “leader ratings are more predictive than VI” need to specify WHICH leader ratings. Favourability? Approval? Satisfaction? Gross or net? Individual or “best leader” format? These differences can be much bigger than house effects or errors in VI
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl

Sometimes asked about the difference between approval and favourability of the leaders - eg you think say Farage is doing a good job objectively, but dont like him/his politics. We ran both this week to explore any differences. Here is our standard good job/bad approval tracker

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The Opinion Brief
The Opinion Brief@opinionbriefpod·
"Makerfield is a seat that Reform should always expect to win, for every reason other than it's in Greater Manchester." @LukeTryl and Charlie Buckley on whether Burnham's Manchester X-factor is enough for him to win the upcoming by-election. Find this week's episode here: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the…
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Starmer's net favourability at -42 is slightly better than his job approval at -46, though he has both the highest overall bad job at 64% and unfavourable at 62%. So long and short is it doesn't change a huge amount which you ask, but Farage in particular has a drop on favourability vs approval
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
For Farage there is a bigger shift his net approval is -15, with highest gross approval his net favourability is lower at -23. Biggest shift is his 'unfavourable' is above 50, whereas bad job is lower at -45. Polanski's unfavourable at -33 are also a little worse than his approvals.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Sometimes asked about the difference between approval and favourability of the leaders - eg you think say Farage is doing a good job objectively, but dont like him/his politics. We ran both this week to explore any differences. Here is our standard good job/bad approval tracker
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Fair question! We originally devised our tracker based on how people framed things in focus groups. We think eg cost of living gets at what people are actually thinking about more than “economy” but there are arguments both ways. One reason we always try and show how many people pick at least one of the immigration categories people can compare
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SPG@SPG_UKDK·
@LukeTryl Who or how decide the categories. You've split immigration, other polls don't, you've split the economy into different choices. No criticism just a genuine interest.
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
🧵 Migration figures will be a test of whether the Government can get credit for a clear reduction in headline numbers & what that does to the salience of immigration. Currently levels of immigration and crossings occupy spaces 3/4 on our tracker (48% select at least one)
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
Labour unlikely to 'win' on migration, but if it can be seen to do be trying (Challenge previously is people have assumed they don't care) and achieving results, then salience likely drops as a battle ground. Approach of Home Office under Mahmood so far seems to recognise that
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Luke Tryl
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl·
All of which is to say how the Government communicates this will matter. First to get credit they need to make sure people hear about it. Secondly they need to avoid mission accomplished and talk about this as a step to a controlled, competent, compassionate migration system.
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