LycheeCS

I help people buy and sell CS2 skins on Buff and Youpin with only 1% service fee — paid via crypto. •For sellers: I support Youpin’s pre-sale listing and handle the process for you. •For buyers: I help source skins at good prices and timing via trusted Chinese platforms. I also provide market strategy signals based on combined insights from top Chinese trading teams:
• What to buy
• When to enter/exit
• How to manage position size Want to cash out fast? I also help people instantly liquidate skins at 94–96% cash out, using:
• Crypto 
• Bank transfer
• Float balance This is more than access — it’s structured timing, item selection, and liquidity support. DM for details or membership access.

Bet The condition limited to make sure pure market

I do think this souvenir update genuinely damaged the core logic behind collections, and overall it was clearly negative for the market. Even stretching the timeframe longer doesn’t suddenly create benefits for the market — at the end of the day it mostly just makes Valve feel “safer.” The reason I mention the condition isn’t because I’m trying to redefine updates. It’s because random black swan trading-related updates completely distort the market’s original trajectory. And honestly, the definition is pretty simple: as long as Valve does not introduce another update directly affecting trading / market mechanics. Regular Armory rotations themselves have almost no real impact.

@LycheeCs2 They will update in 3 months correct? Then you can define if it is a destructive update. Terminal update and souvenir update I don’t think it is destructive A lot of ppl here wouldn’t agree too For the word of “destructive” it is hard to define. Isn’t it?

Nobody can truly predict what kind of update Valve will push next. But now that it already happened, I honestly think this might be a good thing. Fast capitulation, fast repricing, then a reset higher. I already started rotating funds and scaling back in since this morning. The value of the VIP group isn’t just picking items — it’s that even in markets like this, I’m still actively helping members trade swings and reduce overall losses. I genuinely do not believe the market reaches 400-500 levels unless Valve pushes another completely self-destructive update. I’m even willing to make a $1000 bet with anyone: as long as Valve doesn’t release a market-destroying update and SteamDT doesn’t change the index calculation method, the market will not hit 450 within the next 3 months.

What we’ve been discussing this whole time is understanding the market itself — not gambling on what kind of update Valve might randomly release. If your “400-500” scenario is entirely based on Valve pushing another destructive update, then honestly there’s no real point in arguing or making a bet in the first place.

It is unfair since I think they will probably release such update And self-destructive is hard to define Let’s just bet on index. And I followed what you told me 3 months in your mind it is bull/bear cycle, steamdt index will hit below 700 fine? • SteamDT does not change the index calculation or experience technical issues (this I could accept) In next 3 months they will update then the bet doesn’t make sense :/ isn’t it

Before Valve actually updates something, almost every prediction about their updates is meaningless anyway — unless you’re an insider. So under the condition that: • Valve does not release another black swan / self-destructive update • SteamDT does not change the index calculation or experience technical issues I’m willing to bet $500 that the market index will not go below 700 within the next 3 months.

@LycheeCs2 700-800 isn’t relative bottom If you want to bet I mean all follow what you said 3 months I guess it dipped below 700 fine? If it doesn’t I pay you. It is like free money if you really think it is bottom

@MitaoCatCS I have did this start this morning brh

What I posted doesn’t have malice to you, hope you understand 🙏 As a newer your idea would be changed very fast, like 2 weeks months ago you were confident. But for now you would probably agree it will go down and you won’t sell crypto US stock into CS2 shortly. Other ppl too until no one is confident market can be slowly recovered.

Under a true Valve black swan update, almost every previous prediction becomes meaningless anyway. Bears only end up “correct” because they happened to run into a black swan. And bulls are willing to accept the losses that come with it. You can stretch the timeframe to a year and it’s still the same logic — all it takes is one major destructive Valve update within that period for the index to break below 500. That’s why I always emphasize the condition behind the bet: as long as Valve does not push another self-destructive update. And realistically, one year already far exceeds a normal CS market bull/bear cycle. What I’m saying is that 450 is extremely unlikely within this current bear cycle, and the 700–800 range after this black swan flush is already acting as a relative bottom.

@LycheeCs2 My previous reminder isn’t bad at least. And it already happened. I told you it was just a start so it takes max one year to hit lower than 500 (steamdt index is fair) Not the bottom at all and far from

@ChristianL22147 wait his reply

@LycheeCs2 You should bet with Mitao

The golden Niko is pump to 3000cny Greedly Valve

@Soul54121 the exist package amount is huge

@LycheeCs2 If they cant be opened anymore why is it rip list

@Soul54121 ？

@OfficialLampy desert fox？

@LycheeCs2 wait so does this mean the Fennec Fox is gonna be cheap? I almost bought one the other day

The market just split collections into two categories overnight: • With souvenir supply • Without souvenir supply And this is the RIP LIST. 💀

@OfficerDraco unique not gg

@xetroygg maybe lower after a week

@LycheeCs2 Now 9300y Yesterday 10850y Im cooked

@CM205069 haha from future

@LycheeCs2 THANK FUCKIN GOD I TRADED MY B THE MONSTER FOR A 20$ LOSS

@awpwizard all collection without souvenir and dragon lore is unique bf of rare amount of materials

What’s the not rip list?!!?!!?!?

@TomotoBash @xetroygg ty brh

@xetroygg @LycheeCs2 BRUHHH I thought about u the first thing I saw the update my whiteout tec-9 skin tanked from 40 to 30 this shit is crazy

@xetroygg gg

@LycheeCs2 x.com/xetroygg/statu… I day ago