Adam Fauasrtian ✡️
80 posts
***new long idea*** $eras ~$7B fully diluted MC ~$400m cash PT $30 As $eras continues to trickle up , I think it’s a strong contender for another $10B+ deal in $xbi. So think it’s well known that $eras has the exact RAS(ON)/pan RAS niche that $mrk got priced out of on $rvmd. Theres some legal issues around how we got here, but consensus is that $eras will be okay on the litigation front. With $eras you’re paying roughly a $rvmd rounding error for the ‘arguably’ better tolerated molecule in the class. We’ve moved on from the does it work phase. Now the questions are around its durability, US PDAC confirmation and whether the safety edge is real. Next catalysts - mono expansion + combo dose escalation data in H1 2027 - ERAS4001 (pan KRAS) first ph 1 data in H2 2026. Quick brief - Better CypA affinity → higher potency and better target coverage at ~10× lower drug load → greater tumor retention, lower peak to trough → structurally wider therapeutic index → the clean skin/GI profile One could also argue easier combos across chemo, pembro and CRC. Bear thesis as I understand is that it comes down to TI, not potency. But doesn’t potency without selectivity mean the drug hits all cells harder? Clearest path (in order) 1. 1L PDAC + chemo 2. NSCLC 3. CRC $eras doesn’t need to beat $rvmd on monotherapy ORR in 2L, just needs to win the combo and earlier line battle on the back of safety I suppose. M&A is a large part of my thesis as to why the stock works from here going into next year. $abbv and $mrk ran a full on process with $rvmd and couldn’t get over the line. I remember I did a piece on $abvx re $lly diving into how BP BD teams operate. Once they decide they want to go in a certain direction and have done the work, you do see action. $mrk already has a live clinical relationship with $eras $abbv likes to go back to back with acquisitions and the merger docs re $apge confirm an exclusivity request from the them where they also wanted an expedited timeline, where they wanted to free up bandwidth to wrap up other BD activities. $eras offers the same thesis as $rvmd at a quarter of the cost probably even less as when you bake in potential premium for $rvmd it’s even higher. Anyways, if you made it this far, stayed tuned for one more major long thesis I’ll share in the coming days. Could be a multi bagger if I’m right about that one too. Not investment advice. I hold/may hold $eras
