A war of two hourglasses (2/2)
wsj.com/world/putin-wa… via @WSJ
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Marcus Walker
7.9K posts
Marcus Walker
@MMQWalker
South Europe bureau chief, The Wall Street Journal.
Rome Katılım Mart 2011
2K Takip Edilen12.2K Takipçiler
Putin is betting Ukraine's army will buckle before Russia's economy does.
Neither is close to breaking yet.
But on current trajectories - including in the slow-moving West - Putin could win his bet.
My analysis in the WSJ (1/2)
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Marcus Walker retweetledi
The west can turn the balance in Ukraine's favor, frustrating Russia's imperialist ambitions. Yet it fails to support Ukraine sufficiently. Perfect summary by @MMQWalker wsj.com/world/putin-wa…
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How will the Russo-Ukrainian war end?
Two scenarios.
1) partition with protection.
2) partition with subordination.
Neither is close. My analysis 1/2
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Marcus Walker retweetledi
A ceasefire was attainable. Deliverable if Putin wanted. And it was measurable. Agree or face economic pain. A peace deal objective upfront is an invitation to procrastinate, delay, object and spin out diplomacy to keep fighting for months. It ain’t rocket science.
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@J_JHelin @redbirdsglory @Tatarigami_UA He's not the origin of the problem, which is institutional, but many soldiers think he embodies it (but not him alone) - I hope the piece is clear on that. Thanks for the feedback!
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@MMQWalker @redbirdsglory @Tatarigami_UA I liked the article in general, but I reject the framing or implication that Syrskyi is somehow responsible for the problem.
I should've been clearer about that.
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No institutions don't change like this.
The Ukrainian army has always been the way it is. The lack of command and control in the early days enabled flexible small unit action in places, but mostly the early successes were due to Russian incompetence and lack of manpower.
Yaroslav Trofimov@yarotrof
Ukraine was successful the first year of the war because its army fought differently. Once Zelensky replaced Zaluzhny with Syrsky last year, it has turned into a war of a small Soviet army against a big Soviet army, with predictable consequences. wsj.com/world/ukraine-…
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@J_JHelin @redbirdsglory @Tatarigami_UA Our article argues that the C2 problems are institutional, not merely individual, and that the dynamic has been mostly (but not all) bad, for several reasons named in the piece. You guys know these problems well. Question is can Ukraine still repair the situation & rebuild trust?
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Marcus Walker retweetledi
“Syrsky remains widely unpopular with Ukrainian soldiers, many of whom see him as the epitome of the Soviet syndrome: a Moscow-trained career officer who micromanages units on the ground, delaying retreats or ordering assaults that lead to morale-sapping casualties for tree lines or other objectives with little strategic value.”
@mmqwalker @iglovett
wsj.com/world/ukraine-…
Yaroslav Trofimov@yarotrof
Ukraine was successful the first year of the war because its army fought differently. Once Zelensky replaced Zaluzhny with Syrsky last year, it has turned into a war of a small Soviet army against a big Soviet army, with predictable consequences. wsj.com/world/ukraine-…
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An underdiscussed aspect of Ukraine's fight for survival: its soldiers are battling not only the Russians, but a command culture that has regressed into Soviet-style rigidity. Our report from the front lines in Donetsk, Sumy & Zap shows the frustration with Syrskyi & co 1/2
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Really looking forward to reading the new book 'Swap' by my brilliant colleagues @drewhinshaw & @JoeWSJ on Russian espionage's 'illegals' and Putin's hostage diplomacy
drew hinshaw@drewhinshaw
NEW BOOK ANNOUNCEMENT🚨 Let us tell you a story about this young girl in Harry Potter shoes–an Argentine who was set to start 6th grade last summer when she was whisked onto a CIA jet with her mom Sophie didn’t know her family was Russian–or their place in a global shadow war
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What's behind the disdain for Europe shown by Trump & co.?
@davidluhnow & I explore MAGA's anti-Europeanism, a front in the culture wars that goes beyond (well-earned) criticism of European policies on defense, economics and immigration.
wsj.com/politics/what-… via @WSJ
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@Dr_ChristopherM @yarotrof @EddieGold2u - afaik, yes.
- it's not about ethnicity, which isn't a good indicator, but rather political attitudes towards Ukrainian statehood vs 'Russkiy mir'.
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@MMQWalker @yarotrof @EddieGold2u Is Witkoff the first person w authority in West 2 validate the 2022 referendums? If so, a major breach. Ukr has clearly changed since 2014, thanks 2 essentials ethnic cleansing. But b4 Putin acted Ukr was far more unified than Witkoff thinks. But 10 yrs of mafia rule it's diff.
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Saying as Witkoff did here that the overwhelming majority of people in the four Ukrainian regions (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk) voted to be part of Russia is preposterous. The 2022 referendums were a complete sham. The majority of people in Zaporizhzhia lived then and lives now in areas under Ukrainian rule where there was no referendum at all.
Yaroslav Trofimov@yarotrof
It’s clear from this that the only difference between Steve Witkoff’s and Vladmir Putin’s views on the war in Ukraine is that Putin actually knows the names of all the five Ukrainian regions he wants to keep.
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@yarotrof @EddieGold2u Survey on how people in east & south Ukraine thought in early 2014. Support for Russia & separatism was limited to a minority even at its peak.
kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=…
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@EddieGold2u Yes but 2/3 of the population had fled those areas by then. Because they didn’t like living under Russia.
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Marcus Walker retweetledi
Russia, which according to Trump wants peace, launches missiles against a hotel in Zelensky’s hometown of Kryvy Rih, killing at least two civilians and wounding many others, as Trump withholds intelligence that allows Ukrainian air defenses to operate.
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Marcus Walker retweetledi
It Sank in 15 Minutes. How Tragedy Struck Mike Lynch’s Yacht. The story by @MMQWalker @MaximColch @aviswanatha wsj.com/world/europe/i… via @WSJ
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Marcus Walker retweetledi
This was a pretty interesting piece in @WSJ by @MMQWalker, @FatiabdulFatima & @AnatPeled1 on the current state of the #IsraelPalestineconflict.
Give it a read when you can. wsj.com/world/middle-e…
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