Mike Mazarr

The risk is that we allow this transformation to wash over us without being self-conscious about shaping it for social coherence and dynamism. It took many decades to correct many of the early perils and challenges of the Industrial Revolution. We can't wait that long with AI

For a framework of social factors underpinning long-term advantage, I relied on this earlier RAND assessment. As AI applications gain power + reach over the coming decades, they have the potential to disrupt--or strengthen--those characteristics rand.org/pubs/research_…

For a while I've been thinking that the emphasis in US AI strategy on the tech stack, while important, ignores broader sources of national advantage. I spent part of a year looking into the more comprehensive sources of national advantage in the AI Era

This obviously can't be the whole answer. We can't surrender large areas of S&T/techno-industrial space in the hope of leapfrogging. But I'm increasingly convinced that an effort grounded in massive programs to recapture market share in some of these areas isn't sustainable

In a new short essay, I make the argument that we need to rely more self-consciously on leapfrogging approaches--don't try to out-muscle China as much as continually jumping ahead to make their vast, state-supported products/approaches outmoded rand.org/pubs/perspecti…

In the science/tech/industrial competition with China, one question is how the United States can keep pace with a state-led system aiming to put into place deeply integrated ecosystems in various sectors supported by many state tools

My friend and colleague Joel Predd has distilled many fascinating thoughts from two years of reflection on the geopolitics of AI--a great and thought-provoking post geopoliticsagi.substack.com/p/taking-agi-s…

Nations seeking to flourish in the AI Era need to ensure society-wide diffusion and the application of AI to create a strong nation. The report outlines a range of components of a broad US strategy for success in the AI Era that go well beyond chips, energy and data

Delighted to post our new short report on AI strategy. We looked at a handful of archetypal strategies and drew lessons across their demands. The biggest lesson: A leading tech stack is important, but over-arching success demands a wider emphasis rand.org/pubs/perspecti…

Competing vigorously, and drawing some very clear lines on vital interests, is clearly required. China has troubling ambitions, and we need to respond. But doing so by trying to crack their system would be a tremendous strategic misjudgment

Seeking victory through pressure is a really bad idea. The route to success is the same as the Cold War: Systemic dynamism. A dozen urgently needed reform campaigns at home--and keeping friend + ally support--are far more important to the outcome than anything we do *to* China

Delighted to share a new article on US China strategy. I argue that proposals to apply maximum pressure on China to set the stage for a change in its system are infeasible and dangerous rdcu.be/d1TVt My case in brief: