MNX

Trillions of dollars are flowing into AI, and there is almost nowhere to trade it. There’s no exchange for hyperscalers to hedge their $100M training runs. No benchmark markets to bet on the speed of AI progress. No public markets on OpenAI despite them being worth more than Goldman Sachs. The most important sector in the global economy has less financial infrastructure than soybeans. Until now. Announcing MNX, the first exchange to allow trading across the entire AI value stack, from H100 rental prices to Nvidia shares. Trade the takeoff at mnx.fi

Narrative violation from Dylan on Dwarkesh: H100s are worth *more* today than they were 3 years ago. There's a sentiment that data center buildouts are priced into the risk of rapidly depreciating GPUs. But the models want to learn. Token prices are falling so fast that you can get more intelligence out of GPT-5.4 on a 3-year old H100 than GPT-4 on a brand new H100. @dylan522p @dwarkeshpatel

Check out the latest episode of Prediction Market Movers! @GerlacherC and @StephenGrugett discuss: - MNX building infrastructure for trading AI-native markets - The limitations of yes/no prediction markets - How MNX differs from other platforms youtube.com/watch?v=zNvuBD…

@VitalikButerin @slatestarcodex Framemogged.

MNX in The Diff today! thediff.co/archive/longre…

@AlanaDLevin Count fast. x.com/MNX_fi/status/…

Counting down the days until we see perps on GPU compute

@menhguin It's testnet. Don't worry.

huh

@bearlyai We go live in a few months. testnet.mnx.fi/trade/h100

Founder of Chicago-based prop trading firm DRW says compute will be world's top commodity in 10 years. People will spend more on GPUs than an oil, which means that there should be a futures financial market for GPUs.  Interesting implications for startups and cloud providers:

@slatestarcodex Also yay, finally got my "mogged by scott" card.

astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monda… @slatestarcodex is making a great case for prediction markets being useful as an intellectual tool to help us understand the world and the possible near futures better. I would love to see prediction market projects doing more to optimize for this direction (esp more conditional markets).

@polynoamial The wall

MNX featured in the latest Mantic Monday from @slatestarcodex!

@PeteHegseth @AnthropicAI @DarioAmodei @POTUS If ever there were a time to the have a market price on Anthropic's valuation...

Thank you for your attention to this matter. cc: @AnthropicAI @DarioAmodei

@TheZvi Anthropic valuation futures coming soon...

Kudos to Anthropic. I'm suddenly very curious what would be happening if Anthropic was a publicly traded company...

@singularitttt You'd be shorting a contract that represents Anthropic's valuation at the end of 2026. If they go public this year, the valuation is the market cap, otherwise it's the last valuation they've raised at (modulo many other details).

@MNX_fi can't wait to short anthropic! how does this work?

Trillions of dollars are flowing into AI, and there is almost nowhere to trade it. There’s no exchange for hyperscalers to hedge their $100M training runs. No benchmark markets to bet on the speed of AI progress. No public markets on OpenAI despite them being worth more than Goldman Sachs. The most important sector in the global economy has less financial infrastructure than soybeans. Until now. Announcing MNX, the first exchange to allow trading across the entire AI value stack, from H100 rental prices to Nvidia shares. Trade the takeoff at mnx.fi

@Citrini7 Think this is too bearish? Trade the macro implications of AI directly on MNX.

I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out. It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive. And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it. citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

@ryanmccomb @ManifoldMarkets The beautiful thing about building on crypto is that we are fully non-custodial, ie we don't have control of your money.

@ManifoldMarkets @MNX_fi T-3 years until this turns into FTX

The next chapter of the prediction economy is here. We’ve spent 4 years at Manifold proving that prediction markets work. Now, our founders are launching @MNX_fi — a dedicated exchange for the AI economy. - Institutional-grade perps - Real-money AI benchmarks - Non-custodial settlement Manifold stays social. MNX gets serious. See the full vision from @MNX_fi below. 👇

Unlike many of the “AI x crypto” plays we’ve seen before, @MNX_fi looks genuinely exciting: - Markets for a bunch of new asset types, like compute prices and benchmarks - And the fact that it happens to use crypto rails is just an implementation detail - exactly how it should be The next generation of breakout financial applications will look like this

@thibautone Thanks! 🙏

@MNX_fi congrats on the launch!! 🚀