M.O.R.E Trading

🐻 THE DRONE & DEFENSE BEAR MARKET 🐻 $KTOS: -64% drawdown from YTD High of $134.00 $AVAV: -64% drawdown from YTD High of $408.25 $DPRO: -60% drawdown from YTD High of $10.62 $AVEX: -58% drawdown from YTD High of $40.99 $RCAT: -57% drawdown from YTD High of $18.02 $ONDS: -57% drawdown from YTD High of $15.28 $AMPX: -56% drawdown from YTD High of $23.40 $UMAC: -50% drawdown from YTD High of $34.36 $LPTH: -43% drawdown from YTD High of $18.80 If you are feeling discouraged by the performance of your drone & defense investments in 2026, just know you are not alone. This has been an indiscriminate, sector-wide event that has punished all names in the category.

In a sector bear market, it's usually best not to piss into the wind. Our job is to build real, durable value... not fight the tape. We're focused on executing: DZYNE integration, delivering on our raised guidance, converting backlog into revenue, leveraging our strong capital position, and positioning Ondas as a leader in autonomous defense systems during what we believe is a durable, multi-year adoption cycle. We'll let consistent execution speak for itself.

New $ONDS financial model post DZYNE acquisition - plus 2027 revenue first pass 🎯 ------------ DZYNE is a hyuge acquisition! $300M in revenue for 2027 which will be the first full year under the Ondas umbrella Due to acquisitive nature of the company I always put more revenue in my model then what they guide. They were at $390M for 2026 last go around so I went with $475M in my model. The company has now guided to $525M so I will still go above that but we are running out of year now that we are in July so I am going to go with $550M. Even with MOAR acquisitions coming there is only so much revenue they can stuff into 2026 as it takes time for an acquisition to close and start contributing to the top line. Perhaps they get some ancillary revenue from Cyberhawk. Or just some organic growth. -------------- 💎NEXT YEAR I have begun 2027 at $850M in revenue. DZYNE alone is $300M in theory so this should be easily beaten considering we can assume another 3-5-7 acquisitions, who knows. Eric like buying things. This could get to $1B by the time we have this discussion Labor Day 2027 but I want to start reasonable and work my way up. --------------- 🔢SHARE COUNT Always the tough one with $ONDS - only company I have 2 separate line items for shares outstanding. Last go around was 493M in my notes for shares out in the world - Grok says the fully dilute with warrants is just under 700M. So to do valuation correctly we should be looking at all future liabilities which is the larger #. By the time we get to end of 2027 I would expect both these numbers to be up substantially because that is the Ondas way. Total guesswork here since there is a lot of dilution to come but I went with 580M shares by end of 2027 and 780M shares filly diluted. THESE ARE GUESSES. Especially the latter - are they done with MOAR warrants and MOAR long term liabilities hoisted on the stock? We will see. --------------- 🤔"But it's so CHEAP and so much MOAR revenue then why doesn't the stonk go up???" "Why" isn't that important to me from a technical analysis perspective. "What" is. Growth is out of style, drone is out of style - that's the what. If I did care about why some opinions that could be totally wrong: a) When a stock runs 2500-3000% in a year, you need to absorb and consolidate that. It takes time. It can take many quarters if not a year plus. b) That warrant overhang. I was very confused to see all the clapping last year on this site about the warrants as if $28 (? I think was the price) meant institutions thought it was headed to $28 so buy buy buy. It's a future liability and more dilution down the road when price targets are hit - that's the bottom line. Anyhow, I digress. Opinions don't matter - price matters. -------------- 💸FINANCIAL MODEL For the first time since I began watching this stock in early 2025 (and should have bought in on the crash spring/summer 2025 in retrospect) the company is not only fairly valued go forward but a tad 'cheap' ;) I like to use 12x forward price to sales so on 2026 revenue the non diluted upside is 80%. That sounds great but you have to put all those future warrants in so its more like 30%. Still this is positive finally vs being negative in my model. That translates to a PPS in the $13s and $9s respectively. For 2027 it is +140% and +80% respectively if my revenue is anywhere near accurate (my guess is Ondas beats my revenue with more acquisitions) and my share counts are accurate (no one really knows there are so many shares) That would be $17s and $13s respectively. Up until 3 months ago the company was grossly overvalued on this model since I began watching it That did NOT stop the company from having an amazing 2025. My model does not mean the stonk cannot be $28 PPS next year or $50 or $100. It's a model. The model is just 1 piece of the puzzle. The chart is the other (first comment below) I have a small 2028 LEAP position on this name