Milan
1.1K posts
@TicTocTick Or just dont buy the s&p. So many better tools to compound your money out there. Use the markets to make money and invest it elsewhere. Markets are now for suckers long term.
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So, if I buy s&p500 at 6900, in 35 years, my 10k hypothetical invested will be around 42k (nominal).
But if I wait and buy at 5000, I end up with $60k in 25 years.
A 40% to 50% out performance.
Downside is it may never drop to 5000.
tic toc@TicTocTick
S&P500 has returned 6% (real) over 25 years. To calculate return for next 25 years, you must account for permanent inflation at 3%, $40 trillion debt, and a declining empire. In my view, s&p500 will return 2% next 25 years (real) and nominal of around 5-6%.
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My biggest advice regarding judging flow and saying something is a hedge, saying it won't work, or complaining it "isn't working" is to ignore it, stick to your opinion or don't follow it blindly
I have never said flow will 100% work, I have said numerous times flow should only be used as confluence with your chart/strategy
Not every flow is an insider, nor do I claim they are Barron. PLEASE give flow time to work, if you enter a leap position or swing position do you expect to be in profit the same hour or same day? No.
$SPY $QQQ
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$SPX Last 5 Fridays were red.
What do you think will happen tomorrow?
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$SPX is trading above it's weekly implied range by almost 100pts. Usually we see a mean revert happen the next day or following week
Just sharing what I see and I have this traded before multiple times
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Traveller@A_Najumi
$SPX Weekly Outlook 4/6 Implied Range: 6,714.58 - 6,450.80 Thursday saw a weird rally intraday from lows after a sudden headline that Iran will be discussing a Hormuz deal with Oman. Oil quickly sold off but ended up closing at daily highs to end the short trading week. With oil closing at record highs and $SPX closing similarly one has to think that this move could be a bull trap. High oil prices and high equities don't really make sense. From a technical point of view we are still trading under 6,650 on $SPX, as long as we are under it sell side pressure is strong. Buyers need to reclaim 6,650 and the 100sma for a move towards 6,750+ If we fail to reclaim 6,591 we can see a slide towards 6,500 followed by 6,300... $SPY $QQQ
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Someone is buying $2.5M worth of $SMH puts for June here, that is the semi etf
Ton of puts coming in for semiconductors
$SPY $QQQ
Traveller@A_Najumi
Last post of the night but I will update more in the morning Take a look at the $SOXX daily chart, it’s the semi conductor ETF. Very overextended… Now we did see a lot of bearish put flow on semis today which we posted in the server. If semiconductors slide that will 100% put pressure on equities. Aside from that Japan is now down -2% overnight. PCE data tomorrow along with jobless claims.. $SPY $QQQ
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Full transparency cause I don’t want to be the account on X that only shows wins
I was right on $USO pulling back, in fact I would have been up $12k this morning. I got screwed on IV - first time this has happened to me on multi month options. I kinda knew it would decay a bit but not to the point of this.
I sold June for a small win instead and took off my 90P for a loss.
Mistakes happen, I learned for next time
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Traveller@A_Najumi
You guys already know I have been scaling into $USO puts for a while now $SPY $QQQ
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This is why I told you guys to avoid @CheddarFlow and their platform. If you want nonsense flow that is purely engagement farming, you can follow them..
If you go through their feed it is mostly doom post or big bull posts, sometimes right after each other - and now apparently $SPX options flow is based off futures lol
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Joel Bodker@Joelbodker
A story in 3 parts @A_Najumi @CheddarFlow
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You guys already know I have been scaling into $USO puts for a while now
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Traveller@A_Najumi
Someone is buying $2.2M worth of $USO puts, cleanest energy flow since the beginning of the war... Deal soon? $SPY $QQQ
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No one crying about these $MU
Flow God@FL0WG0D
A total of $58,000,000 into these $MU calls. They loaded up all day long 🤔
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@jtsla4 @DMT_Doctor I signed up for the waitlist but didnt get in on friday. Next round?
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Official Blademap Beta first day X @DMT_Doctor 🫡🤝
j@jtsla4
Absolute legend shorting $TSLA @DMT_Doctor 🫡
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I am not counting my eggs before cash open, but wanted to give an update.
As it stands I might have doubled my capital on this move lower on Oil and it is only the beginning.
I have been speaking about a oil short for almost a month, many said I was dumb but I trusted my research and TA. I think we open under 120-110 on $USO tomorrow and by Friday we should see a slow down turn as tankers start transiting etc.
Plenty of time on the positions too...
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Traveller@A_Najumi
You guys already know I have been scaling into $USO puts for a while now $SPY $QQQ
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Top watch tomorrow
Here’s my plan. If we get a dip toward $119-120 you buy calls with a tight stop at $116, if you want a bigger stop $109 can work too.
If no dip, buy the breakout near $129 for the next move toward $150
Trade idea $AAOI 4/17 150c
Remz@Remzztrades
$AAOI Massive flag on the daily. Every single dips continues to get bought up. See you at $150+
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So far market is rocketing
There was news after this, someone said maybe a deal is possible tonight
Let’s see.
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Traveller@A_Najumi
Someone just bought $1.2M in $SPY calls in after hours trading, looks like they might know something 🌮🌮🌮 $SPX $QQQ
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