Endless Summer

@traderhc Definetely a fast growing concern. Eyes wide open and heads on a swivel until further notice. Enjoy your day!

Appreciate that. The part that keeps me up at night . $DXY at 99 and falling while 10Y pushes 4.39%. Dollar weakness PLUS rising yields means foreign holders aren't just skipping auctions, they're actively reducing duration. That's not a positioning call, it's a structural shift in who's willing to fund the deficit. Gold at $4,551 is just the scoreboard.

Gold just ripped 3.4% to $4,551 while the 10Y yield climbed during an active military conflict. Let that register. War is supposed to be the one scenario where Treasuries catch a bid. Instead the auction flopped and yields rose. Gold is replacing government bonds as the global fear trade. That's not a one-day headline. That's a structural shift in how capital views US sovereign debt. The commodity signal is even uglier. Gold screaming higher while oil crashes 5%. That's stagflation pricing. Recession AND inflation at the same time. The one combo where bonds can't save you. I think gold sees $4,700 to $4,800 within two weeks. The reserve diversification trend that started in 2022 is accelerating under stress. $GLD is the new $TLT. Is anyone still buying Treasuries as a hedge, or has that trade officially died?

🚨 NEW: James Comer drops a bomb on Fox: California voter fraud could be TEN TIMES worse than Minnesota. “Gavin Newsom better lawyer up!” The walls are closing in on the Golden State grift.

@MSchu18 @iAnonPatriot Great show and great venue.

@iAnonPatriot we get that competition here in Las Vegas every year at the South Point hotel.

The European mind cannot comprehend this.

@LiveOnTheChat @m3_melody @MG_MBS Nothing will work across the residential R.E. sector in any meaningful way unless the market can retest 2016-2019 pricing. This goes for agents in RE sales, lending, escrow, home inspectors, appraisers, both buyers & sellers, all of it. It's vapor locked stuck until then, imo.

@m3_melody @MG_MBS Do mortgage interest rates even matter when buyers can't afford to buy -even if rates were at 3%? Home prices NEED to drop significantly!

Current 30-Year fixed mortgage rate on MBS Live Dashboard Back at September levels (using the FRED weekly series) @MG_MBS

@TotemMacro Yupp, and it all depends what outdated junk the funds are tied to, and if they made any under the table bad decisions to leverage. Time will tell and each day exposes more.

The problem with private credit investors fleeing is the funds are, in turn, forced to cut loans. But if their borrowers are loss-making and require new borrowing to repay old borrowing, cutting them off simply turns the loans bad. You can see how this easily spirals...

@BeardoTrader Yupp, and he positioned into cash over a year ago. He can stay in cash and probably beat the averages without lifting a finger.

Maybe there’s a reason Buffett is in cash…

@SirLebotha @zerohedge They will lean towards a hawkish stance, its the lessor of the two evils. But, the bond market will waste no time leading the way regardless of what the FOMC decides on or not, just as it is right now.

@zerohedge If PMI signals stagflation ahead, does the Fed risk tightening into a slowdown or easing into inflation?

S&P PMI: "The PMI data are indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of just 1.0%, with a modest 1.3% expansion signalled for the first quarter as a whole. The survey’s price gauges meanwhile point to consumer price inflation accelerating back to around 4%, hinting at a growing risk of the US moving into an environment of stagflation"

@kshaughnessy2 Bond market disagrees wholeheartedly.

“Citadel Securities’ Rubner Sees Short Squeeze Fueling US Stocks Rally” “A record streak of short bets is at risk of unwinding, priming US equities for a comeback with hedge funds and systematic strategies poised to drive the next wave of buying, according to Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner. ETF trading activity has surged to a historic proportion of total volume, creating what Rubner described as a large pool of short bets, made based on pre-programmed trading rules. ETFs have accounted for roughly 35% of trading in recent weeks — peaking near 47% — as investors used them to rapidly adjust exposure, according to data from Citadel Securities… …Retail investors, meanwhile, have remained resilient as markets whipsawed. According to Rubner, they’ve largely avoided panic selling, instead sticking to a pattern of buying dips and taking profits during rallies. Since the start of the conflict in Iran, retail investors have recorded only three days of net selling, Citadel Securities data show. “Retail didn’t panic,” he said. “They’ve been buying on weakness and selling on strength.”….” @Hamnakedshorts @FlyEaglesFly529 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@traderhc Great work! 💪

I turned 28 years old today. 5 years ago, I went into money management in ties of commercial real estate, stocks, and treasuries/cash. They set me up with $500k to start a $BTC / crypto portfolio to manage along with everything else I was/am doing. Now, after another $5m injected over the years, I have nearly doubled the cost basis. I love the journey and feel like I am just starting.

@traderhc 10Y. over 4.40, "at this time"

Everyone's staring at the $VIX at 27 and Fear/Greed at 15 screaming "crash incoming." The sector tape tells a completely different story. $XLE is up 8.1% on the month. Best relative strength of any sector. Utilities right behind it. Meanwhile $XLF is dead last alongside Consumer Discretionary. Energy plus Utilities leading at the same time is a stagflation barbell. Not a crash setup. Energy says inflation stays sticky. Utilities say growth is rolling over. Financials getting dumped says nobody believes banks can thrive here. They need a steep curve and healthy credit demand. Market is pricing neither. Money isn't leaving equities. It's reshuffling into the one scenario the Fed can't fix: too much inflation to cut, too little growth to hike. The quiet institutional trade is already on. Are you positioned for it or still watching the fear gauges?

@zerohedge Not at all a fan of Goolsbee, but he is not wrong.

*GOOLSBEE: COULD SEE CIRCUMSTANCE WHERE WE'D NEED TO RAISE RATES like it being 2 months before the midterms?

@Nostre_damus makes fixed income attractive? 😋

US 20Y yield just hit 4.99% we all know what happens next

@traderhc All that is probably just the half of it. On the sidelines until further notice but I will admit I like the 10yr. action to the upside, and cash ain't trash.

Friday isn't the volatility event. Monday is. Quad witch strips out trillions in options today. All that gamma infrastructure, the dealer hedging, the pin mechanics. Gone by 4pm. Then Powell speaks Saturday. Markets closed. No way to react. Monday opens with a completely reset gamma landscape, a Fed catalyst nobody could hedge for, and buyback blackout still active. No corporate bid underneath. $SPY sitting at 656 with the put wall at 650. I think we test that level Monday, maybe break it. The variance risk premium is screaming. Implied vol at 24, realized at 13. People paid up for protection that expires worthless today. The actual risk shows up when they're naked. Everyone exhaling into the weekend is looking at the wrong day on the calendar. What's your Monday game plan?

@Barchart Makes sense.

There is now a 0% chance of rate cuts this year according to Bond Traders 🚨🚨

@m3_melody @RealJohnGaltFla Mortgage News Daily 30Yr. Fixed 6.53% (at this time) 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.63%

@RealJohnGaltFla 🔥

BOHICA

@FBIDirectorKash @FBILosAngeles Keep up the great work!

Massive alleged fraud takedown in California from @FBILosAngeles - well done nypost.com/2026/03/19/us-…

@m3_melody income gaps, high debt to income ratios = mortgage declines, property issues, lay-offs, credit deterioration, run-away HO insurance costs, high property taxes, sellers not able to sell for less than the loan amount without taking a loss, high utility costs, high interest rates...

🚨New Home Sales for January About what you’d expect. Dec revised down from the fictional fairy dust narrative number. Non-seasonally adjusted ⬇️ over 14% YoY For the “it’s war crowd” - remember these results are for January $ ⬇️ -6.6% YoY 9.7 months of supply Big W <s>

@zerohedge 👀

US New Home Sales Collapse By Most In 13 Years In January zerohedge.com/personal-finan…

@zerohedge 👀

'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Rolls On With Jobless Claims Back Near Record Lows zerohedge.com/personal-finan…