Ian M Mackay, PhD (he/him)

Version 12. Added in June (pink), which contains a randomly chosen 42-day post-onset period from Case 2. As a guide. Added the new Dutch Case 12 - also from likely boat exposure. A few other things. 1⃣/2⃣

🚨 @MinofHealthUG has confirmed 2 additional #Ebola cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in Uganda to 7. Particularly concerning is that these new cases are healthcare workers in Kampala and unclear if they cared for any of the other known cases. When health workers become infected, it raises concerns about healthcare-associated transmission, exposures in healthcare settings, and the potential for additional undetected contacts.

Confirmado un nuevo caso positivo de hantavirus tras PCR en una de las personas que permanecen en cuarentena preventiva en el Hospital Gómez Ulla. Corresponde a un contacto estrecho identificado dentro del seguimiento epidemiológico activado tras la detección inicial del brote.

@sanidadgob @MackayIM if I get the translation correct this is the first non-Hondius person, not passenger or crew but a close contact (of whom, the thread does not say)

@MiriamvGool @sanidadgob It's a bit hard to tell if was a contract who was also on the boat. I'm sure it will be elucidated shortly Thanks!

In Guinea, we faced lots of distrust & ultimately deployed anthropologists to engage communities one by one Similar strategies may not be possible in some currently affected areas with risk that responders may be attacked or abducted (7/8) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

As surveillance efforts have been scaled up in the #DRC #Ebola response, more than 900 suspected cases have been identified so far, including 101 confirmed cases. In Ituri province, the epicentre of the outbreak, nearly 5 million people live amid ongoing conflict. Today, 1 in 4 people are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 1 in 5 are internally displaced. The violence is forcing people to flee, including health and humanitarian workers. This is severely impeding efforts to scale up Ebola contact tracing and identify infections early enough to provide supportive care. Ongoing insecurity and fear are also fueling mistrust within communities. @WHO and humanitarian health partners maintain a presence across Ituri, including in some of the hardest-to-reach and most insecure areas. Communities are facing not only the threat of Ebola, but also a wide range of diseases. Our Health Cluster partners are supporting the delivery of: * maternal, reproductive, newborn, child, and adolescent healthcare * treatment of severe acute malnutrition with complications * mental health services, wound care, and support for survivors of sexual violence * medical supplies * routine immunization * community health services Delivering a comprehensive package of healthcare services is essential - not only to meet urgent health needs, but also to build the trust that is critical for an effective Ebola response.

@OutbreakJake And now I've got another version...

@MackayIM I don't know, you might still get a meaningful signal up to Young Guns, or possibly even Bad Boys?

Leaving a PCR to run for the full 40'is cycles (90min) is like when you leave your Wham! Greatest Hits tape running after you've listened to Club Tropicana. The bit you wanted has now happened and won't repeat, but there's no harm letting it run longer, except using electricity.

@Jeannemarie1309 @MartinZ_uncut Pfft. LOL.

@MackayIM Le laborantin Allez le dire à @MartinZ_uncut il a beaucoup plus d’expérience professionnelle que vous

What is a PCR cycle? 🧵 We sciencey types throw in words that we use for a specific purpose but which also have other everyday meanings among most people on the planet. We don't see that we do this ALL. THE. TIME. 'Cycle' is one of these words.

A nice, clear, straightforward #EbolaBundibugyo dashboard from the Democratic Republic of Congo Ministry of Public Health, Hygiene and Social Welfare Surveillance épidémiologique : Ebola bundibugyo 2026 sante.gouv.cd/epidemie/ebola…

@BobKerns Let's face it, he gets traction with conspiracists because he increasingly spoke like one.

@MackayIM My point is basically that we should ignore that remark, as irrelevant. IF we take it literally, it's clearly wrong. If we take it more loosely, it's still wrong. There are other issues with regarding him as the authority on PCR applications, but we don't need to examine those.

@BobKerns Yes, he says, amnmyhtign that exists as one molecule. So he acknowledges you must have the nucleic acid IN YOUR SAMPLE. But he greatly oversimplified and woefully misinterpreted that every single copy will produce an amplicon. Anyone who truly worked with PCR knows that's crap

@MackayIM It was specifically in the context of detection of HIV—which he as denying causes AIDS. As best as I can interpret his remarks in context, he wasn't suggesting PCR can detect things that aren't there, as some have used his remarks to argue.

@offhandmanor1 @ibrake4ants @Craig_A_Spencer I think I still do...🙂 Thanks for being a follower!

@MackayIM @ibrake4ants @Craig_A_Spencer I remember the Swiss cheese days 🦠

I've spent a lot of the last week speaking to people across government, media, and other actors involved in the Ebola response. Some reflections:

@Jeannemarie1309 I'm instead asking myself how much of my brain I just lost listening to this fucking pile of absolute crap. Thanks for this. I'm going to blog about how bad it is one day. Yeesh. Take it from someone who has done a lot of real-life PCR. DON'T BELIEVE THIS VIDEO!!

@offhandmanor1 @ibrake4ants @Craig_A_Spencer I crashed my account accidentally and lost all my followers. I came back but stayed pretty quiet.

@MackayIM @ibrake4ants @Craig_A_Spencer Hi Ian! I followed you I think since 2019 and who knows what happened. Thanks for engaging

@BobKerns Where did he give that extra bit of definition about disease? Feels a bit like you're moving the goalposts on what conspiracy theorists think he said - which seems to be that you could detect ANYthing. Neither is true, for different reasons. PCR can detect pre-symptomatic cases

@MackayIM Kory Mullis's quote about running PCR long enough letting you find anything in anyway notwithstanding! He meant finding levels below disease-inducing, not finding things that aren't there. He was also denying HIV causes AIDS.

Maps....amirite?? Aiyahh. I wrote about mapping during a 2018 Ebola outbreak...Open Street Maps is awesome, but it's the little things. virologydownunder.com/mapping-ebola-…

@AdressePip61241 @pjd77420 @CLOUTECHRISTIN2 @ZammitBertet @DLeelyan @Jeannemarie1309 science.org/content/articl…

@pjd77420 @CLOUTECHRISTIN2 @ZammitBertet @DLeelyan @Jeannemarie1309 non, j'ai entendu ça dans 1 interview il me semble...

pensées pour tous mes idiots de collegues qui ont fait " formation 1h " pour cureter des nez & ne se sont jamais intéressés à ce qu'est un CT 🤡 comme quoi un soignant peut etre un vrai con qui ne sait pas ce qu'il fait> il obéit sans penser

@pjd77420 @AdressePip61241 @CLOUTECHRISTIN2 @ZammitBertet @DLeelyan @Jeannemarie1309 I'd love to chip in but don't want to make assumptions based on language translations. Just to note that a 'CT scan' mentioned above is not about the PCR. And late Cts don't automatically mean 'dead virus'

@AdressePip61241 @CLOUTECHRISTIN2 @ZammitBertet @DLeelyan @Jeannemarie1309 Merci : > plus une valeur Ct est élevée, plus la quantité d’ARN est faible. Lire aussi : « no such thing as too many cycles » 🐭 [Il n'existe] pas de telle chose appelée « trop de cycles ». Il est impossible de faire tourner trop de cycles. #Ct #CT x.com/MackayIM/statu…

@ibrake4ants @offhandmanor1 @Craig_A_Spencer ...and that is how a variant of any pathogen rises in dominance, by escaping old immunity. Normal biological process. Immunity to a greater antigenic/epitope array may be better protection from that.

@ibrake4ants @offhandmanor1 @Craig_A_Spencer Actually, what I meant was YES, we develop immunity. That immunity does act protecticely. That immunity is as long-lasting as it is to many other pathogen variants. That immunity reduces the occurrenece/severity of longCOVID, transmission and acute disease. Yes, variants escape..