Joe Magyer

Ted Turner, the billionaire media entrepreneur and philanthropist who launched the 24-hour cable TV news revolution when he founded CNN in 1980, has died. He was 87. cnn.it/4d7tcQ2

Excited to share my conversation with @arielrwinton. We talked about services as software, what B2B software looks like in the age of AI, and why intentional, high-conviction investing can be a real edge. Here's the longer breakdown of our conversation: AI is changing what “software” even means. Ariel’s core insight is that the most interesting new B2B companies are no longer just tools that help customers do work themselves; they increasingly deliver the work itself, with AI acting as the intelligence layer. Her “services as software” lens is really about backing products that solve the problem, not just support the workflow. There is no single “correct” software business model anymore. Ariel pushes back on rigid thinking around pricing and monetization. Rather than forcing every company into seat-based, usage-based, or any other fashionable model, she starts with how the customer experiences value and how that customer is actually comfortable buying. The takeaway is that good pricing is market-matched, not ideology-driven. At the earliest stages, insight can matter more than speed. One of her strongest points is that pre-scale companies often produce rich signals before they produce rich spreadsheets. Ariel’s process is built around hypothesis-driven diligence on qualitative evidence: customer behavior, founder learning velocity, market pull, and the first real signs of product-market fit. That is a different kind of rigor than simply moving fast. Relationship-building is part of diligence, not separate from it. Ariel wants to meet founders well before a financing process, partly to avoid “pitch mode,” but also because time reveals how people think, learn, and respond under pressure. The deeper point is that winning great deals consistently often comes from showing your value over time, not trying to out-sprint everyone once a round is live. B2B remains attractive because it is unusually resilient. Ariel’s case for staying focused on B2B is not just familiarity. She argues that B2B software businesses are harder to kill, more capital-efficient, and governed by clearer operating playbooks than many other models. Her conviction comes from seeing that resilience firsthand across both focused and generalist environments. Concentration can start earlier than most investors think. Ariel rejects the idea that concentration only makes sense once growth-stage metrics are obvious. Her view is that there is an undervalued middle ground: once real qualitative signs of product-market fit emerge, an investor who knows how to read those signals can begin concentrating earlier and more intentionally. Follow-ons are emotionally harder than they look. One of the sharper insights in the episode is Ariel’s skepticism toward heavy reserve strategies. Her argument is not just mathematical; it is psychological. Once you are already partnered with a founder, it becomes harder to stay objective, and later rounds often happen at prices you do not control. Her solution is to concentrate where she believes she has the clearest edge and keep reserves relatively disciplined. “Founder friendly” should not mean automatic yeses. Ariel makes an important distinction between being supportive and being indiscriminate. She does not see loyalty as writing every follow-on check; she sees it as being thoughtful, honest, and acting from conviction rather than social pressure. That is a useful correction to a phrase that often gets used too loosely in venture. Solo GP does not have to mean solitary decision-making. Ariel talks about changing her mind on building alone. What stands out is her realization that independence on the investment side can coexist with a broad, trusted village of mentors, peers, and supporters. The lesson is that you do not necessarily need a formal partner to pressure-test thinking if you have intentionally built the right network around you. The most valuable help in venture is often bespoke, not scalable. Her critique of platform teams is one of the episode’s clearest contrarian takes. Ariel believes the best founder support is highly contextual, trust-based, and specific to a moment, not something easily turned into a repeatable menu of services. Her alternative is a dense network of excellent people she can connect to founders at exactly the right time. A founder’s “why” is not soft stuff; it is core diligence. Ariel starts first meetings by asking why the founder is building the company. She treats that as foundational context, not biography filler. The insight is that understanding motivation, origin, and market intimacy helps interpret everything else you learn later. Hope you enjoyed this episode of @InvestNStartups!

@ColinGardiner wdym i was chatting to your hr person the other day