Toby-B 🇺🇦🍉

This is the news. There are 12 years left to build alternative energy networks. ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

@JosephSchager @glcarlstrom @JaharaMatisek Different tech, different manufacturing network organisation, different sales model.

@glcarlstrom @JaharaMatisek The costs are only so high because of such small production runs. As with ALL things, the cost curve declines rapidly with scale! That's how the US never bankrupted themselves winning the Cold war. Sufficient resources (>4% of GDP) will yield plentiful & economic munitions

"The cost of replacing the first four days' worth of munitions would be $20bn-26bn. The problem, however, is more to do with scarcity than cost. America is thought to have used more than 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles in the opening days of the war, but the Pentagon had planned to buy just 57 new ones in the current fiscal year. There have been no deliveries of THAAD interceptors since 2023 and the Pentagon has not placed any new orders this year. A puny 39 interceptors are slated for delivery in 2027—six years after they were ordered." economist.com/briefing/2026/…

@Markallen0729 @glcarlstrom Just like ripping up the JCPOA was a sunk cost?

@glcarlstrom This is a sunk cost, much less expensive than running the fleet back and forth whenever bad actions by Iran or their proxies.

@JimSatone @shanaka86 Not all US customers will pay for a premium product, most US farmers operate a franchise model based around a large supplier. This is not well adapted to supply chain disruption

@MajorGrubert @shanaka86 That is their problem. My customers pay extra for real grass finished beef. Nothing is stopping them from finishing their beef on grass and hay, it just takes longer. Farmers couldn't imagine their way out of a paper bag. Too busy going to the FSA to pick up their bailout checks.

Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks. The planting clock. Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available narrows the window for corn. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres from 98.8 million. Soybeans rising to 85 million from 81.2 million. The seeds that go into the ground in the next three weeks determine America’s grain harvest in October. The decision is irreversible. The USDA clock. March 31. Prospective Plantings. The report that converts farmer intentions into official data. Every acreage number, every corn-soy ratio, every nitrogen-dependent calculation becomes a published fact that traders, governments, and food agencies will use to model global supply for the next twelve months. The number arrives in twelve days. The FAO clock. April 3. The Food Price Index. The first global reading that captures post-Hormuz commodity prices across cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar. The 2022 peak was 159.7 in March 2022 after Ukraine. This reading will incorporate oil above $100, urea at $610, LNG halted, packaging repriced, and freight surcharges of $500 to $1,500 per container. The number that determines whether the UN declares a food emergency arrives in fifteen days. The pharmaceutical clock. India’s API inventory buffers are two to three months, measured from the war’s onset on February 28. Late May is the depletion window. Methanol at 87.7 percent Hormuz exposure feeds the solvent chain for paracetamol, ibuprofen, metformin, and antibiotics. Once buffers deplete, the shortage becomes a patient access crisis for the 47 percent of US generics that originate in India. The China crude clock. FGE NexantECA confirmed China is drawing commercial reserves at up to one million barrels per day. The draw sustains refinery operations for four to six weeks from March 19. Mid-April to late April is the exhaustion window. After that, China faces three options: accelerate Russian pipeline imports, reroute at massive premium, or crack open the strategic petroleum reserve. The third option reprices every commodity on the planet. The helium clock. SK Hynix and Samsung hold two to three months of helium inventory. Late May to early June is the depletion window. South Korea imports 64.7 percent of its helium from Qatar. Ras Laffan is offline. If helium buffers deplete before alternative supply arrives, semiconductor fabrication faces rationing. The AI hardware supply chain hits a physical wall measured in months, not quarters. The insurance clock. Solvency II requires 30 to 60 days of zero incidents before P&I clubs can reinstate war risk coverage. Even after a ceasefire, the insurance normalisation takes six to sixteen months based on the Red Sea precedent of 26 months and counting. The logistics system lags the financial relief rally by the longest duration of any clock in this crisis. Seven clocks. The shortest expires in twelve days. The longest runs for over a year. The planting window, the USDA report, the FAO index, the drug buffers, the Chinese crude draw, the helium inventory, and the insurance cycle are all counting down simultaneously. None of them pause for diplomacy. None of them respond to presidential directives. None of them read sealed packets. The calendar is the only actor in this war that has never lost a negotiation. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@JimSatone @shanaka86 So i guess you know why most US beef isn't grass fed or grass finished?

@MajorGrubert @shanaka86 I do it for a living. I build fence and plant grass. Most of my planting was done 40 years ago. The only pesticides my land sees is drift from my soybean and corn crazy neughbors.

Israeli settlers escalate their incursions into Taybeh, the West Bank’s last fully Christian town, raising concerns over further land appropriation. The parish priest, Father Bashar Fawadleh, appeals for international intervention, as residents face mounting restrictions and call for peace, justice, and protection. vaticannews.va/en/church/news…

@JimSatone @shanaka86 Do you know how US beef is produced, or pasture for that matter?

@MajorGrubert @shanaka86 Put up fence, plant grass, graze cattle. Not exactly new concepts.

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla You're saying that you would defend your land, but that you also defend thieves who would dispossess you of your land. You seem a bit confused Pat.

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla I would hang on to my Land like the Jewish People of Israel who have done it successfully since 1948. Long Live Israel and its Jewish People.

‘Judeo-Christian values’ is such a tell. Who, in Britain, has ever casually dropped ‘Judeo-Christian values’ into any conversation *ever*? This is Farage channeling Bannon. It’s MAGA. Dressing it up as English nationalism is pure pantomime. They’ll have Mother Goose next

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla Read UN273 for yourself. Transjordan was never Palestine and the PLO was formed long after the Nakba. You seem to know nothing but hasbara fables. Would you surrender your land to bandits then?

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla Stop rewriting History. We all know the USSR used the PLO as a terrorist weapon in the middle east from 1968. Ask yourself why Jordan won't have Palestinians back in their original homeland - Jordan. They create havoc wherever they settle Jordan, Lebanon Syria.

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla UN273 defines these requirements. Are you saying you don't know the history here? Ben Gurion reneged on the arrangement at the Lausanne peace conference

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla What a ridiculous comparison. The United Nations is quite clear on Israel. Maybe if Egypt, Syria and Jordan hadn't started the six day war the boundaries would have stayed as intended. But Arab aggression failed and they succumbed to the 2.5 million Jewish People of Israel.

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla The only law which defines states is the Montevideo convention. Israel is not a state according to this definition. It was recognized by the UN with the proviso that it would enact UNR 181 & 194. It has not done this. Would you surrender your house to bandits?

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla Grow up you fool. The state of Israel is recognised in international law. Despite Arab aggression since 1948.

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla They don't have a "homeland", these Zionists have taken the land of another people based on a deluded divine right. Would you welcome bandits taking your house based on religious special pleading?

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla I support the Right for the Jewish People of Israel to exist freely in their homeland - ISRAEL. I support their right to defend themselves against ARAB, Iranian, Hezbollah and HAMAS Palestinian terrorism. Which they have achieved successfully since 1948.

@AngelicaOung This is gas, cheers

Did YOU want to watch CCTV's AI Martial Arts cartoon about the Straits of Hormuz crisis? Complete with fighting Persian Cats? Well I subtitled it for you so you can enjoy it in all its trope-laden glory! Remember kids, the mountains will stay standing while the green water flows, and the true art of war is not figuring out how to fight, but how to stop!🥷😼🦅

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla Am I to understand that you endorse this activity? x.com/MajorGrubert/s…

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla You'll do anything to support HAMAS Palestinians. Another Water Melon terrorist supporter

@Acyn It's a good thing that Americans are not easily mortified.

Reporter: Why didn't you tell allies about the war before attacking Iran? Trump: We wanted it to be a surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla Should I tolerate apartheid?Forced disappearances? State sponsored terrorism? Arbitrary detention? Torture? Annexation? Collective punishment? Genocide? Do you claim these are Jewish traits?

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla More misinformation by the intolerant class of people who have a hatred for all things Jewish.

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla You are aware that the nominally "democratic" regions of the Israeli occupation correspond exactly with those regions where non-Jewish inhabitants are an engineered minority. A Stalinist approach to democracy.

@Birdyword Ukraine and Iran are presently redefining asymmetrical warfare, there are advantages to assessing novel strategy.

I have no particular defence and intelligence insight here, I just always wonder: if you were a risk-averse Chinese policymaker who believed that the US was currently a decaying power, flailing both at home and abroad, would you lean towards rolling the dice, or waiting?

@JimSatone @shanaka86 The issue here is that the mechanisation of agriculture does not lend itself to unplanned diversification.

@shanaka86 What farmers have to realize fast is that there are other crops besides corn and soybeans. I know, it's hard to imagine.

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla The UK has a collection of acts, agreements and treaties that form its constitution. Israel doesn't have a constitution. Forcibly expecting ethnic groups which might vote against the interests of a supremacist ideology does not create a democracy.

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla It's a parliamentary democracy. Like the UK it doesn't have a codified Constitution.

@PatConway534411 @carolecadwalla Perhaps you have a link to the Israeli constitution? The whole premise of Zionism is to claim that this ethnic-cleansing and annexation is a Jewish right, while simultaneously insisting that Zionism is the sole legitimate representation of Judaism.

@MajorGrubert @carolecadwalla In your warped world of the Hatred for the Jewish People of Israel.