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I have a strong conviction that no returns can consistently beat the market. While one might outperform briefly, it's ultimately a game the market wins. This belief has only solidified since my days as an analyst.
As a stock strategy analyst, I often missed the mark with forecasts and predictions. But one thing became crystal clear: you can't beat the market. If I ever surpassed market returns, it was sheer luck. Skill? That shines in bear markets, but I've rarely seen self-proclaimed stock gurus excel in downturns.
That's why I've always recommended market index ETFs, particularly the S&P 500. In 2013, when the S&P 500 had just crossed 1,800pt and was up over 20% year-on-year, most people balked, saying, "Isn't it overvalued?" or "A correction is due."
They didn't buy. By the end of 2014, it surpassed 2,000 points, up another 10%+. Still, many avoided it, citing high valuations, and instead sought hot stock tips.
In 2015, when it dipped about 1%, the chorus of "See, the S&P 500 is overvalued" grew louder. Yet it rebounded with a 9%+ gain in 2016 and nearly 20% in 2017, hitting 2,673 points. Despite persistent claims of overvaluation, it closed at 5,881 points last year (2024).
I first encountered $BTC in 2016 when it was under $1,000. By 2017, it surpassed $10,000, predictably met with cries of overvaluation. It seemed to prove the skeptics right by falling to $3,700 in 2018, but then approached $30,000 in 2020 and exceeded $45,000 in 2021.I exclusively recommended Bitcoin due to the belief that no returns can consistently beat the market.
For those unwilling to constantly follow market trends, I suggested only $BTC and $ETH. However, most investors, deeming these too expensive, sought out other altcoins instead.
As of January 31, 2025, the "overvalued" S&P 500 stands at 6,040 points, and Bitcoin is at $100,000.
This past weekend saw a historic plunge in the crypto market. Friends ask, "Which $crypto should I buy?" My answer remains constant: Bitcoin, because beating the market is too challenging. Invariably, they respond, "It's too expensive now. I'll wait for a bigger dip."
I can assure you, as always, they'll ask the same question next year, and my answer will remain unchanged.
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