X

As far as markets go. We’ve had so many historically unprecedented moves in 12 months that nothing is off the table. Have to be open to big targets in small time frames.

Do we flip full bullah here?

SPX closes below 6800 tomorrow and opens the doors for a tariff type sell of imo

Shorts got absolutely blown out here. Even after such a big move you’re gonna need to see follow through with actual buying imo or gap gets filled soon. Oil straight back to 100 ominous spot for markets

Having to pay realtors 5 % of a seven figure home is absolute insanity. All they do is open the front door and provide zero value. As a society how have we not determined it’s better to negotiate a flat rate separate from percentage of a home value . ?!?!!!!!

Goblin town inbound

There’s clearly a portion of participants eager to bid. Vix still above 20 ahead of cpi and opex is quite a powder keg imo. I’m of the thought this whole move unwinds . But if market pushes through here would think fresh highs follow

Volume not supporting this move . Remember saying that last spring as markets went straight up. But if a different scenario here with the oil spike being a very real obstacle. Not convinced it’s put in a top . Undeniable strength in many sectors most importantly chips imo.

Today you got about 3 seconds to take puts off the open . Sweet market. Just gotta be honest this is not an environment 99% of people should be participating in let alone pushing hard. You need a very precise system here and gambling on binary events the markers priced in is -EV

Oil puts 15% out of the money for ten days out Barely doubled . It’s called risk reward and it’s been pretty bad for a while now in the option market.

This is gonna get really violent to the downside from here imo .

Well shorts it was. Will look to fade into end of week

Schizo market. Very bizarre stuff going on the Ltf. Super out of whack. Feels like one side is about to get carried out on a stretcher. My guess is it’s the longs

My read is that the market is complacent here . Technically the structure looks rather weak and some relief off a quarterly rebalance is all this is. Kinda seems like people are sayin everyone is bearish so it’s bullish . Echo chamber stuff idk the trend is your friend aye

Coins look better than indexes but still favor a sweep of 65

If there were no presser today would be confident things roll over . Still think lower by end of week but never know in this kinda market. Sentiment can change with substantial news

Tend to think it’s more of a short week anomaly but if market shows strength next week guess you gotta go long through opex which would only be a week . Any weakness would accelerate and I think that’s the likely scenario

I initially as of March close thought new lows were in the cards but seeing equites close flat on a day oil ran wild is notable. Caveat is it’s a short week and volume was extremely low and it’s a a huge variable. But risk holding steady while oil went vertical is something

Haven’t opened a trade in two weeks ish. I refuse to get myself immersed in this absolute circus where you gotta keep up with unhinged lunatics tweeting shit to fade every move. It’s not that it’s tricky technically. It’s just an emotional dumpster fire to engage with. It’s sick

Also a good example of how tricky it is trying to swing puts in a market like this. The amount of premium unwind on a day like this can be devastating if you’re on the wrong side of the trade . Just better to look for bounces than try to force shorts

Think the odds of the low being in are very low here. Mechanical bounce. Quarterly close short week shenanigans. Vix still super high. More volatility ahead imo