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Manuel María Lojo Muñoz
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Manuel María Lojo Muñoz
@ManuelMLM3
Soy un papi. Tenemos dos hijos y un solo futuro para ellos, el que de verdad ocurra. Que sea el bueno.
Katılım Kasım 2021
310 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
BREAKING: Iran has vowed an unprecedented response if the United States attempts to seize Kharg Island. Yemen’s Houthis have identified the first measure: closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If they execute, the two chokepoints that carry 30 percent of the world’s seaborne oil will be shut simultaneously by the same alliance network. Hormuz is already closed. Bab el-Mandeb is the second lock. And the backup plan that every government built to survive the first closure runs directly through the second.
Saudi Arabia responded to the Hormuz shutdown by rerouting crude exports to its Red Sea port at Yanbu. It was the obvious contingency. It was also the trap. Every barrel that loads at Yanbu must transit the Bab el-Mandeb to reach Asia. Thirty tankers are currently staged near Yanbu within Houthi strike range. The bypass and the blockade share the same water.
Houthi military official Abed al-Thawr told Press TV that once the decision to intervene is made, the first step could be the official declaration of a naval blockade against the United States and Israel, with devastating economic consequences. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said any closure would target ships from nations committing aggression against Iran. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said his forces have their fingers on the trigger. They declared Hour Zero on March 14. Tasnim, Iran’s state-affiliated news agency, framed Red Sea insecurity as an explicit resistance option, signalling that the threat is not freelance Houthi posturing but coordinated Iranian strategy.
The arsenal behind the threat is not hypothetical. Iran has supplied the Houthis with anti-ship ballistic missiles including the Asef with a 400-kilometre range, land-attack ballistic missiles including the Toufan capable of reaching 1,800 kilometres, cruise missiles from the Quds family reaching beyond 1,300 kilometres, and Samad-series attack drones with ranges up to 2,500 kilometres. They operate unmanned surface vessels, naval mines, and small-boat swarms designed for exactly this kind of chokepoint denial. Between 2023 and 2025, they attacked 178 vessels, sank four ships, and caused a 90 percent decrease in Red Sea container shipping. They did not need to physically block the strait then. They made it uninsurable. They can do it again.
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM have already paused all trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb. CMA CGM imposed emergency surcharges of $2,000 per container and $4,000 per refrigerated unit. The strait is not yet physically blockaded. It is commercially dead. The shipping lines did not wait for the Houthis to fire. They read the threat and rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 12 to 15 days and a million dollars in fuel costs to every voyage.
Two straits. One war. The United States is sending 5,000 Marines toward Kharg Island while reviewing seizure plans that both Iran and the Houthis have explicitly identified as the trigger for closing the second strait. If the Marines land on Kharg, the Houthis close Bab el-Mandeb. If Bab el-Mandeb closes, Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu bypass collapses. If Yanbu collapses, 30 percent of global seaborne oil is offline. The domino chain is four steps long. Each step has been publicly announced by the party that controls it.
The strait is 30 kilometres wide. The war is 4,000 kilometres long. The backup just became the target. And the arsenal pointed at it has already proven it works.
Full analysis:
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
BREAKING. The United States has 5,000 Marines heading toward an island whose oil terminals it has refused to touch. The President is reviewing seizure plans. Israel’s defense minister says strikes will increase significantly this week. Two carrier strike groups and two amphibious ready groups are converging on the Gulf. And every oil terminal on Kharg Island, the facility that loads 90 percent of Iranian crude, is still standing. Three weeks of the most intensive aerial campaign since Iraq 2003 and not a single oil loading point has been struck on the island that funds the enemy. That is not an oversight. That is the tell. Ninety military targets on Kharg were destroyed on March 13. Radar, missile batteries, command posts, naval positions. Everything that defends the island was hit. Everything that generates revenue was left standing. Trump said decency. But today he told the world America does not need Hormuz and that China, Europe, Japan and Korea will have to get involved. A president who spares oil terminals out of decency does not then tell the countries that need them to fend for themselves. The restraint has a different name. Iran has stated the explanation publicly. If the United States attacks or seizes Iranian oil infrastructure, Iran will immediately destroy US-allied energy assets across the Persian Gulf. Saudi refineries. Qatari LNG terminals. Kuwaiti export facilities. Iranian military officials called it a pile of ashes. This is not a negotiating position. It is a doctrine of mutually assured economic annihilation. Touch our oil and we burn yours. The US says it has degraded Iranian missile capacity by 90 percent. That leaves 10 percent. Ten percent of the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East is still hundreds of weapons. Iran has launched strikes every night of this war. It hit Ras Laffan in Qatar this week. It hit Mina Al-Ahmadi in Kuwait twice. It fired intermediate-range missiles at Diego Garcia, 4,000 kilometres from Iranian soil. A cluster munition from an Iranian ballistic missile hit a daycare in central Israel this morning. The 90 percent figure was supposed to mean victory. The nightly launches mean it does not. This is the trap that has no name yet. Seize Kharg and Iran detonates the terminals remotely, denying the asset to both sides. Blockade Kharg and Iran retaliates against Saudi and Qatari loading facilities, removing their exports from the global market. Leave Kharg alone and Iran continues funding the IRGC from crude revenue that pays for the missiles, the drones, and the sealed operational packets distributed to provincial commanders. Negotiate and you are negotiating with a regime whose supreme leader was killed on day one, whose successor has not been seen in 12 days, and whose intelligence minister was assassinated this week. In 1991, retreating Iraqi forces torched 600 Kuwaiti oil wells. Kharg’s terminals are not wells. They are loading infrastructure connected to subsea pipelines whose destruction removes export capacity for years. The threat is credible because this regime has spent three weeks demonstrating it prioritises survival over revenue. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have modelled full Kharg disruption at $150 or higher per barrel. Dubai crude already hit $166 this week. If 5,000 Marines land on an island rigged for self-denial, the price ceiling ceases to exist because no model accounts for a scenario where the defender and the attacker both want the same asset destroyed. The island is 25 kilometres long. The trap has no exit. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
HORRIFIC night in the West Bank.
Israeli settlers are attacking more than nine Palestinian villages and cities now, including Bethlehem, setting cars and homes on fire and attempting to burn families alive.
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Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
AHORA: El número de heridos en Dimona asciende a 47.
Palestina Hoy@Palestinahoy01
URGENTE: Aumenta a 22 el número de israelíes heridos en Dimona tras los recientes ataques iraníes.
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Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
URGENTE: Ataques con misiles desde Irán hacia Dimona, Israel.
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@MacroRenovables ¡Me alegro!
Y por cierto, muchas gracias por la información que nos vas dando a todos. Fundamental.
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@ManuelMLM3 Lo encontré! era más antiguo de lo que creía thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/a-theory-of-ev…
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@MacroRenovables Eso me suena a Art Berman.
artberman.com/blog/
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@ManuelMLM3 creo que lei en enero de este año pero era una publicación anterior...recuerdo algo sobre que los modelos simplifican pero su efectividad está en desvelar el "patrón". Quizás lo confundí con otro articulo
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@MacroRenovables Hmmm no caigo. Dame algún detalle más.
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@ManuelMLM3 Hola Manuel, hace unos días buscaba un post del Hechicero honesto que creo que tú publicaste sobre modelos y la curva logística, lo recuerdas? Si lo tienes cerca, lo enviarías? Gracias y saludos
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Manuel María Lojo Muñoz retweetledi
@TheStalwart Regarding the example of the dealership in Manila, it's switching from one fossil fuel source to another fossil fuel source (and that 14% of natural gas electricity generation is mostly LNG, which means now is more coal)
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