The Mapping Buckeye

7.9K posts

The Mapping Buckeye

@Mapping_Buckeye

I’m not a partisan hack, you are.

Katılım Şubat 2023

220 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·11 Mar

Ohio State Senators and their ASOIAF House- Stark: Terry Johnson Martell: Michelle Reynolds Arryn: Jerry Cirino Greyjoy: Al Cutrona Baratheon: Hearcel Craig Tully: Sandra O’Brien Targaryen: Bill DeMora Tyrell: Bill Reineke #OHpol

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·9h

@BobaCalifornian Can someone please tell me why so many people Think the Scranton seat is going to flip? Cartwright was a uniquely strong candidate

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Boba Californian🧋🇺🇸@BobaCalifornian·13h

Black or Gray?

Boba Californian🧋🇺🇸@BobaCalifornian

My first 2026 House Prediction of the election cycle

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·13h

@beeWpdoubleE @Cocomartun @LIEngProf @kkondik Harris won precincts accounted for roughly 33% of Ohio’s population, and had a turnout of 55% on Average. Trump won precincts accounted for roughly 66% of the population and had turnout of roughly 65% on average. Unless only GOP turnout falls, she needs Trump voters.

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BWP@beeWpdoubleE·13h

@Mapping_Buckeye @Cocomartun @LIEngProf @kkondik She needs Trump voters to stay home. Acton winning over Trump voters is chasing fools gold. Rural Ohio turning out even 10% less than when Trump is on the ballot and the 3 C's showing something of a pulse on turnout probably puts her ahead by a point or two on election day

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Kyle Kondik@kkondik·19h

NEW Crystal Ball -- Six gubernatorial rating changes today in favor of Democrats, but Republicans still have a chance to buck the usual pattern of midterm governorship loss for the president's party

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·13h

@beeWpdoubleE @Cocomartun @LIEngProf @kkondik Eh, the vast majority will end up voting for Vivek regardless. But even so, them not voting is more of a loss for Vivek than a win for Acton. She needs Trump voters if she wants to win.

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BWP@beeWpdoubleE·14h

@Mapping_Buckeye @Cocomartun @LIEngProf @kkondik It's not that they're voting for Acton. It's if they show up at all. I don't think hatred of Acton, without Trump on the ballot, is enough to get that base to hold their nose and vote for Vivek. I'd expect to see some sharp declines in turnout for rural Ohio.

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·14h

@lordpet8 @LIEngProf @kkondik It’s not so much that a massive amount of voters still care about her actions during Covid, but rather it’s that the voters Vivek is having trouble retaining are the ones who DO still care about it.

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Previn Witana@lordpet8·14h

@Mapping_Buckeye @LIEngProf @kkondik this is something I'm curious to see for the most part I've seen the COVID issue fall to sidelines on campaigns to the point I often don't do research on it anymore. The VA GOP ran entirely on it and the school closures last cycle only for Dems get trifecta

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·15h

@Cocomartun @LIEngProf @kkondik Vivek has solidified the establishment GOP vote, which is not what people expected when the race started. We expected them to fight for the middle. Rather, Vivek is fighting to keep his base behind him. That base won’t ever vote for Acton, they also hate her.

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Colm O'Comartun@Cocomartun·15h

@Mapping_Buckeye @LIEngProf @kkondik But in a general she will not be relying on those voters and it is the moderate distaste for Vivek that will matter, no?

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·16h

@LIEngProf @kkondik @Gabe203 Ahh I I misread it as Ohio 14.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·16h

@Mapping_Buckeye @kkondik @Gabe203 I think he’s referring to Ryan jumping into the Gov race, which I believe many were hoping he’d do.

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·16h

@kkondik @Gabe203 @LIEngProf He also no longer lives in the district. Which isn’t a requirement, but still

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Kyle Kondik@kkondik·16h

@Gabe203 @LIEngProf @Mapping_Buckeye not so sure he would've won the primary

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·16h

@createsunfall @LIEngProf @kkondik The funniest part about that district is democrats specifically wanted it to look like that. They drew out Kucinich.

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sunfall@createsunfall·16h

@LIEngProf @Mapping_Buckeye @kkondik The snake was so absurd it literally attracted journalists to the sandbar that kept it contiguous to try to measure if it remained so at high tide. One of my favorite stories.

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·17h

@kkondik I don’t disagree with your rating, it will likely be a lean R margin. It will just be difficult for her to get above 47, 48%. She can win some with persuasion, but her best bet is to hope for atrocious R turnout and monstrous dem turnout. She will struggle with that.

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Kyle Kondik@kkondik·17h

@Mapping_Buckeye she will need to do that. Would be a combo of persuasion, relatively weak R turnout, and defections. Hence why it's still Leans R

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Kyle Kondik@kkondik·17h

Fair points, and also why the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot is important

The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye

@LIEngProf @kkondik I can understand why some people think Ohio will go blue- Vivek is uniquely terrible. HOWEVER, the voter base that Vivek is struggling with most ALSO hates Acton because of COVID. Other than one(very, very terrible poll), she has struggled to get within the margin of error of 50%

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·17h

@LIEngProf @ozymandiasBrBa @kkondik Strickland also ran a historically bad campaign, while Portman ran a masterclass campaign. It was less than polls were wrong and more the race actually shifted.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·17h

@ozymandiasBrBa @Mapping_Buckeye @kkondik I remember early polls showing Ted Strickland with a lead over Rob Portman in the ‘16 Senate race. Didn’t quite pan out…

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·17h

@ozymandiasBrBa @LIEngProf @kkondik No…correlation does not equal causation. Pollsters just suck at polling Ohio. They assume that our suburbs are the same as those nationally. Rather, suburban Ohio is very safely R. We also have much denser rural areas than most of the country, and our small towns are more R

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Notorious ACB@ozymandiasBrBa·17h

@Mapping_Buckeye @LIEngProf @kkondik Plus this is how Ohio polls always go. Dems lead the polls up until October and then the GOP romps on Election Day

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·17h

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Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·18h

@kkondik You read my mind exactly on IA & OH: In ‘18, it was close, but no cigar due to the partisan lean of those states. We may be facing the same scenario this year… And agreed on NY to Safe D. Blakeman has little appeal outside his relatively small base here on the Island.

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·18h

@davidslosttt It’s fair, except the Druham district and the suburban Charlotte district. Otherwise, pretty good

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David@davidslosttt·1d

A fair NC map is so easy to draw it's criminal we don't have one

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·19h

@davidslosttt Even if Acton and Brown won, Turner is unlikely to lose

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David@davidslosttt·1d

If Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton both win in Ohio, it’s possible they could also flip the Democrats 3 House seats with GOP incumbents

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·1d

@TomEDewey1948 There’s not even a good reason for them to hate him, that’s the worst part

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Based Tom 🇺🇸🇻🇦✝️☦️@TomEDewey1948·1d

Negative sentiment is already built around Pierre Poilievre by the public. He is basically what if Andrew Scheer never resigned after 2019. He's not going to resign, but the Conservatives won't win an election as long as Poilievre is there. twitter.com/addammy1/statu…

addam@addammy1

Heart is not in it anymore. Can tell from the eyes

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·1d

@RoKhannaNews They should make anything the government requires you to get, free.

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the ro khanna cycle@RoKhannaNews·1d

Dems should really rally behind free ID and cheaper passports

Jamie Bonkiewicz@JamieBonkiewicz

Reminder: if voting requires a $165 passport, that’s a poll tax. We made those unconstitutional in 1964.

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·1d

GIF

Sam Stein@samstein

has any lawmaker ever kept to a term limit pledge?

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·1d

@thedianhanson @MikemanCommeth @greendragonhq Notice how it says “to register to vote” Also, birth certificates are given to everyone at birth for free and married women all have a marriage license.

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Dian Hanson@thedianhanson·1d

@MikemanCommeth @greendragonhq Nope. Try again.

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The Green Dragon Tavern@greendragonhq·1d

I’m okay with showing an ID to vote. I’m not okay with needing a passport, birth certificate, and marriage certificate which is what the SAVE act would require for tens of millions of women.

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The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye·1d

@edwardclarke @ancestorscry @_Jason_Dean_ And the Chinese sank their own brand new nuclear submarine 😂

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Edward Clarke@edwardclarke·1d

@Mapping_Buckeye @ancestorscry @_Jason_Dean_ 😂 we can’t even get our brand new air carriers out of the docks!

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Jason Dean@_Jason_Dean_·2d

There seems to be a misunderstanding of the US failure in the Vietnam War The US failed to prop up South Vietnam because it was impossible to invade North Vietnam. China would have joined the war if North Vietnam was invaded It was a diplomatic failure, not a military failure

Nathan Strang@NavyStrang

Size comparison of Vietnam and Iran. We only had troops in half of Vietnam and peak strength was 580K.

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Keşfet

@BobaCalifornian @beeWpdoubleE @Cocomartun @LIEngProf @kkondik @lordpet8 @Gabe203 @createsunfall