Marc Timme

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Marc Timme

Marc Timme

@MarcTimme

First principles thinking | Future mobility, energy & sustainability | Complex systems dynamics | Data-driven analysis | Mathematics | Physics

Earth (surface mostly) Katılım Kasım 2016
99 Takip Edilen633 Takipçiler
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Marc Timme
Marc Timme@MarcTimme·
"If you're unwilling to adapt to the future, you'll justify the past." (James Clear)
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Jules
Jules@Jules1Youtube·
Viele wissen gar nicht wie groß Deutschland eigentlich ist
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Marc Timme
Marc Timme@MarcTimme·
10 degrees Celsius temperature anomaly up to 15 degrees C expected during next days earliest heat wave on record in France
𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐓𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬@GeoTales_

France 🇫🇷 - T'as chaud Non, ce n'est pas l'été. Silence on brûle ? Eh bien non, je ne vais pas fermer ma gueuIe devant des crétins climatoseptiques. Ce qui est en train de se dérouler en ce moment sur la France n'est pas une vaguelette thermique de printemps. Non, non pas du tout. L'anomalie à 2 m du sol devrait atteindre +10°C en moyenne sur le territoire le 25 mai soit l'équivalent de l'écart climatique entre Lyon et Alger. En 4 jours, certaines stations ont enregistré un gain de 15 à 17°C ! La canicule officiellement la + précoce jamais enregistrée en France remonte au 16 juin 2022, 3 semaines plus tard dans le calendrier. L'écart est spectaculaire et effrayant. Chaque nouvelle mise à jour des modèles pousse les températures prévues un cran + haut et le "répit" annoncé en seconde partie de semaine ne ramènera pas le thermomètre à la normale, mais simplement aux niveaux "actuels"qui sont déjà hors normes. Pour mesurer à quel point la situation est structurellement anormale, il faut regarder la trajectoire longue. Jusqu'à la fin des années 1980, les anomalies thermiques annuelles en France alternaient entre positif et négatif. Depuis 1990, l'anomalie annuelle n'est jamais redescendue en territoire négatif. Depuis 2014, elle n'est jamais passée sous +1,5°C. En 2022, elle atteint +2,6°C, record absolu depuis le début des mesures en 1900. L'été 2025 s'est classé 3e + chaud de l'histoire française avec une anomalie de +1,9°C, dont +3,3°C sur le seul mois de juin. Il s'agissait du 4e été consécutif très chaud. Les 10 étés les + chauds depuis 1900 ont tous eu lieu après 2000... Et sur les 7 prochains jours les amis... L'anomalie en France devrait atteindre +6 à +7°C selon les modèles météorologiques. En fait, on n'est même plus dans le cadre d'une anomalie dans un système stable, on est largement au-delà (mate le graph en-dessous). La canicule de fin mai 2026 ne survient pas dans un vide climatique, elle s'inscrit dans un régime où l'exception d'hier est devenue la ligne de base d'aujourd'hui. C'est grave docteur ? Oui, vraiment.

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kein Spekulant blauer Haken
Nächster Versuch mit der KI: „Wieviele Stifte siehst du?“ Deepseek: gar keine.🫠 Gemini und ChatGPT nur sechs. 🥲
kein Spekulant blauer Haken tweet mediakein Spekulant blauer Haken tweet mediakein Spekulant blauer Haken tweet media
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Robin Boardman
Robin Boardman@RobinBoardmanUK·
The Sahel is at record temperatures. India is baking at 45°C. 90 dead in Uttar Pradesh from flooding. This is not a forecast. This is not a warning. This is now. Every week, another record. Every week, more bodies.
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Marc Timme
Marc Timme@MarcTimme·
Ecosystems collapse now.
Dr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge)@SergeZaka

"Nous basculons dans l'inconnu". OUI ! C'est ça qu'il faut dire au bulletin météo. Il y en a marre de la banalisation du changement climatique avec les marchands de glace et les surfeurs. Cette épisode climatique est INEDIT dans l'Histoire de la météorologie française. Et si on emploie des termes puissants, ce n'est pas pour faire du "sensationnalisme" et vendre des panneaux solaires : c'est juste factuel. Il y en a marre de devoir vous caresser dans le sens du poil pour ne froisser personne. OUI, il y a maintenant de très fortes probabilités d'atteindre le seuil "vague de chaleur" en MAI. On devrait vivre l'écart à la norme le plus haut jamais observé. Dans AUCUNE archive. Que ça déchaîne vos passions sur le terme que j'emploie ? Je m'en fou. Parce que l'humain n'est pas le centre du monde. Ces températures sont dévastatrices pour les écosystèmes : ➡️les oiseaux qui nichent sous les toits (comme le martinet) vont énormément souffrir. Sous certaines toitures exposées au soleil, les températures peuvent dépasser 40 à 50°C, provoquant déshydratation, abandon du nid ou mortalité des oisillons. ➡️les jeunes plantations maraîchères et les potagers récemment mis en terre sont extrêmement vulnérables. Leurs systèmes racinaires encore superficiels ne permettent pas d’aller chercher l’eau en profondeur : en quelques heures, certaines cultures peuvent littéralement brûler sous le rayonnement et l’évapotranspiration intense. ➡️les céréales d’hiver, notamment les orges et les blés précoces actuellement en épiaison ou en remplissage du grain, vont subir des phénomènes d’échaudage massifs. Quelques jours à plus de 35-37°C pendant cette phase critique peuvent fortement dégrader le poids des grains, les rendements et parfois même la qualité technologique. Et cela de la Bretagne jusqu’au Sud-Ouest… en plein mois de mai. ➡️les arbres et les haies, déjà très avancés phénologiquement après un printemps doux, vont augmenter brutalement leur transpiration. Certaines essences pourraient fermer leurs stomates pour survivre, stoppant temporairement leur croissance et accentuant le stress hydrique très précocement dans la saison. ➡️ les sols vont se dessécher à une vitesse spectaculaire. Une végétation encore en croissance maximale, combinée à des journées longues et un soleil très haut, entraîne une évapotranspiration énorme, parfois comparable à celle du cœur de l’été. ➡️ la faune sauvage va devoir arbitrer entre alimentation, reproduction et survie thermique. En pleine période de reproduction pour énormément d’espèces, cette chaleur arrive au pire moment biologique possible. ➡️ les animaux d'élevage vont subir un stress modéré à fort avec deux facteurs aggravants : la durée qui augmente la fatigue corporelle et le caractère soudain et précoce qui n'a pas habitué les corps). Et il faut bien comprendre un point : ce type d’épisode n’est pas seulement historique par son intensité. Il l’est aussi par sa précocité. Fin mai, les organismes vivants ne sont pas censés affronter durablement des températures dignes d’un cœur d’été caniculaire.

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Dr. Lutz Böhm
Dr. Lutz Böhm@DrLutzBoehm·
Achso, das sind keine Wasserschäden in der Uni 🤦 irgendwo wurde einfach eine Gletscherschallkundeklausur geschrieben.
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Tom Nash
Tom Nash@iamtomnash·
Doing nothing pays (really) well in the stock market
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Marc Timme
Marc Timme@MarcTimme·
@PatriotDieter76 82 Mio, davon 27% AfD-Waehler plus deren Kinder, macht ziemlich genau 60 Mio.
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AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲
AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲@TeslaBoomerMama·
60 and loving it. Thank you for all your well wishes 💗
AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 tweet media
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Marc Timme
Marc Timme@MarcTimme·
Free science* *) has several meanings
Ihtesham Ali@ihtesham2005

A 22-year-old graduate student in Kazakhstan got so angry at journal paywalls in 2011 that she built a pirate website holding 88 million scientific papers, and last month she turned the whole thing into an AI that lets you ask one question and get the actual research as the answer. Her name is Alexandra Elbakyan, and the website is called Sci-Hub. The AI she just launched is called Sci-Bot. It lives at sci-bot.ru and almost nobody outside academia knows it exists yet. Here is the story, because it is one of the strangest things to happen in science publishing in the last 50 years. Elbakyan was born in Almaty in 1988, the year the Soviet Union started to collapse. She taught herself programming at 12. She read Soviet science books that explained things her family used to call miracles. She got into computer security at university and graduated in 2009 with a degree she barely needed because by then she was already a serious hacker. Alexandra moved to Moscow that fall. Then Germany. Then a research internship in the United States. She was working on brain-computer interfaces, the kind of research that requires you to read hundreds of papers a year just to keep up with the field. And every single one of those papers was locked behind a journal paywall that cost between 30 and 50 dollars to read once. She did the math. A graduate student in Kazakhstan could not afford to read science. The first thing she did was learn how to get around the paywalls one paper at a time. She passed the trick around to other students. They asked her for papers constantly. She got tired of doing it manually. So in September 2011, in three days, she wrote a script that automated the whole thing. A user pastes a DOI. The script logs in through a donated institutional credential. The paper comes back free. The website caches it. The next person who asks for that paper gets it instantly because the previous request already saved a copy. That was Sci-Hub. Three days of code. One graduate student. Done. 15 years later, the cache holds 88 million scientific papers. Almost every piece of scholarly literature published before 2020 is sitting on her servers. Researchers in 190 countries use it. Studies in Nature have shown that roughly half of all academic paper downloads worldwide now go through Sci-Hub, not the publishers who actually own the copyrights. Elsevier sued her in 2015 and won a 15 million dollar judgment. She did not pay. The American Chemical Society sued her and won an injunction. She did not comply. Courts in India, France, Russia, and the UK have tried to block the domain. She just moves it. Sci-hub.se. Sci-hub.ru. Sci-hub.ee. The site has had over 20 domains and is still up. Nature put her on its list of the 10 people who mattered most to science in 2016. The New York Times compared her to Edward Snowden. The Verge called her the pirate queen of science. She has not been to the United States in over a decade because she would be arrested at the airport. The Sci-Bot launch in April 2026 is the part that nobody is talking about. She took the 88 million paper database and put a small language model on top of it. You ask a question in plain English. The model searches the entire shadow library, pulls the relevant papers, synthesizes an answer grounded in real citations, and links you to the full text of every source. Free. No login. No institutional credential. No paywall. Three real scientists tested it for a Chemical and Engineering News article last month. They asked it medical and chemistry questions. The radiologist said the answer he got was usable. The chemist said the gaps in recent literature were obvious but the older science was solid. The publisher community is furious. What she built is what the paid academic AI tools are trying to build. Except the paid ones are limited to what their parent publisher legally owns. Hers is limited to almost nothing. Alexandra still lives somewhere in Russia. She does not give her address. She does not do video interviews. She gives talks over Skype with the camera off. She runs the largest illegal library in human history from a laptop and a donation page. A graduate student who could not afford to read science built the system the entire scientific community now quietly depends on. The publishers have spent a decade trying to shut her down. She just shipped an AI that makes their entire business model outdated.

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Ihtesham Ali
Ihtesham Ali@ihtesham2005·
A 22-year-old graduate student in Kazakhstan got so angry at journal paywalls in 2011 that she built a pirate website holding 88 million scientific papers, and last month she turned the whole thing into an AI that lets you ask one question and get the actual research as the answer. Her name is Alexandra Elbakyan, and the website is called Sci-Hub. The AI she just launched is called Sci-Bot. It lives at sci-bot.ru and almost nobody outside academia knows it exists yet. Here is the story, because it is one of the strangest things to happen in science publishing in the last 50 years. Elbakyan was born in Almaty in 1988, the year the Soviet Union started to collapse. She taught herself programming at 12. She read Soviet science books that explained things her family used to call miracles. She got into computer security at university and graduated in 2009 with a degree she barely needed because by then she was already a serious hacker. Alexandra moved to Moscow that fall. Then Germany. Then a research internship in the United States. She was working on brain-computer interfaces, the kind of research that requires you to read hundreds of papers a year just to keep up with the field. And every single one of those papers was locked behind a journal paywall that cost between 30 and 50 dollars to read once. She did the math. A graduate student in Kazakhstan could not afford to read science. The first thing she did was learn how to get around the paywalls one paper at a time. She passed the trick around to other students. They asked her for papers constantly. She got tired of doing it manually. So in September 2011, in three days, she wrote a script that automated the whole thing. A user pastes a DOI. The script logs in through a donated institutional credential. The paper comes back free. The website caches it. The next person who asks for that paper gets it instantly because the previous request already saved a copy. That was Sci-Hub. Three days of code. One graduate student. Done. 15 years later, the cache holds 88 million scientific papers. Almost every piece of scholarly literature published before 2020 is sitting on her servers. Researchers in 190 countries use it. Studies in Nature have shown that roughly half of all academic paper downloads worldwide now go through Sci-Hub, not the publishers who actually own the copyrights. Elsevier sued her in 2015 and won a 15 million dollar judgment. She did not pay. The American Chemical Society sued her and won an injunction. She did not comply. Courts in India, France, Russia, and the UK have tried to block the domain. She just moves it. Sci-hub.se. Sci-hub.ru. Sci-hub.ee. The site has had over 20 domains and is still up. Nature put her on its list of the 10 people who mattered most to science in 2016. The New York Times compared her to Edward Snowden. The Verge called her the pirate queen of science. She has not been to the United States in over a decade because she would be arrested at the airport. The Sci-Bot launch in April 2026 is the part that nobody is talking about. She took the 88 million paper database and put a small language model on top of it. You ask a question in plain English. The model searches the entire shadow library, pulls the relevant papers, synthesizes an answer grounded in real citations, and links you to the full text of every source. Free. No login. No institutional credential. No paywall. Three real scientists tested it for a Chemical and Engineering News article last month. They asked it medical and chemistry questions. The radiologist said the answer he got was usable. The chemist said the gaps in recent literature were obvious but the older science was solid. The publisher community is furious. What she built is what the paid academic AI tools are trying to build. Except the paid ones are limited to what their parent publisher legally owns. Hers is limited to almost nothing. Alexandra still lives somewhere in Russia. She does not give her address. She does not do video interviews. She gives talks over Skype with the camera off. She runs the largest illegal library in human history from a laptop and a donation page. A graduate student who could not afford to read science built the system the entire scientific community now quietly depends on. The publishers have spent a decade trying to shut her down. She just shipped an AI that makes their entire business model outdated.
Ihtesham Ali tweet media
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Marc Timme
Marc Timme@MarcTimme·
@stevenstrogatz perhaps it's a double coincidence, humanity - chose a set of units - gave 100 billion of it to one individual
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Steven Strogatz
Steven Strogatz@stevenstrogatz·
Just thinking about orders of magnitude today. To the nearest power of 10, our brains have about 100 billion neurons, the Milky Way galaxy has about 100 billion stars, and the richest person on earth has about 100 billion dollars. Things start getting interesting at 100 billion.
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