Marc Morgan Milá
1.1K posts
@Marc_Morgan_
Economist researching and lecturing @DEHES_UNIGE @UNIGEnews | Research Fellow @WIL_inequality
📢 The Université de Genève is hiring! Teaching & Research Assistant (PhD) in Economic History. @DEHES_UNIGE French mandatory. Join us and pursue your PhD in a dynamic academic environment. Details below 👇 Please share! jobs.unige.ch/www/wd_portal.…
Nothing in life is sure, including the safety of German bunds...😀 But the cost of not paying your EU dues and sailing into the sunset (and losing access to all EU programs, and being treated as a pariah) is extremely high. Again: Greece paid its dues even when it was bankrupt. The UK paid its dues when it brexited...
Excellent PhD opportunity in economic history at @DEHES_UNIGE. Pluralist department fusing economic history and political economy to new heights. Great conditions and working environment ⬇️
@Marc_Morgan_ Indeed, I mention that. Keynes, who was by temperament an artist, thought that the abundance was within our reach & that we would work 15h a week and that the "old Adam" will be satisfied. But he misunderstood the nature of capitalism.
📢 The Université de Genève is hiring! Teaching & Research Assistant (PhD) in Economic History. @DEHES_UNIGE French mandatory. Join us and pursue your PhD in a dynamic academic environment. Details below 👇 Please share! jobs.unige.ch/www/wd_portal.…
We have a new paper on the effects of fiscal consolidation in EU countries. Fiscal consolidations lower real output, raise the unemployment rate, increase income inequality, and reduce inflation. Contractionary effects are stronger during recessions than in non-recession periods.
The proposal seeks to limit Switzerland's permanent resident population to no more than 10mn people before 2050, and to trigger measures if the population exceeds 9.5mn before then. ft.trib.al/IvltGrt
Who could have expected Mark Carney, a liberal establishment figure if there ever was one, to be the flag-bearer for the end of the US-led order? And from a podium at Davos, of all places? The more you think about it, though, the more it makes sense. Carney is, at heart, a central banker. As such he understands the power of words and beliefs better than anyone: when you strip things down to their core, a world order - like trust in a currency or a financial system - fundamentally relies on the maintenance of belief. Systems of power exist because participants act as if they exist. That's pretty much it: perception is reality. Once participants acknowledge the fiction as Carney just did (he literally started his speech announcing he'd "end the pleasant fiction" of the US-led order), the system itself unravels. This is incidentally a formal concept in game theory: the shift from private knowledge to common knowledge is what triggers cascades. Carney, with his background, ought to have known this was his most potent weapon facing Trump's America: "Trump has the economic and military might. But I have something his power rests upon: I can shatter the collective belief that sustains it." He's even explicit about this being his thinking: his entire speech revolves around Vaclav Havel’s famous shopkeeper analogy and the fact that the power of the Soviet Union rested on "everyone’s willingness to perform as if it were true," on "living within a lie." As Carney puts it, "when even one person stops performing, the illusion begins to crack" and the entire "system’s power" starts to crumble. Today, that "one person" was him. Make no mistake, Carney’s speech at Davos may prove to be one of THE most important speeches made by any global leader over the past 30 years. This is genuinely epochal stuff. More than anything, what it means is that, to the extent it even existed at all, the West irremediably lost the Second Cold War: a Cold War requires two competing systems. Carney just announced that one of them simply no longer exists. This is the topic of my latest article: an in-depth analysis of Carney's speech and its immensely consequential implications for what comes next. Enjoy the read here: open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbert…
