Global_Macro

The three-sigma asset

Today is our nations Memorial Day. Enjoy your day and take a moment to remember the true meaning of this day. A day to pay our respects to all those who have given their lives in our country's defense. God bless these brave heroes and their families.

BoA (Subramanian): The S&P 500 is now trading below its historical average PE to Growth ratio after a hefty increase in consensus long-term growth expectations to +16% (higher then 2000’s, the highest since 2021/22). But consensus long-term growth expectations, like other sentiment measures, have served as contrary indicators. Why? Growth is more likely to disappoint than exceed lofty expectations. By applying the strong historical relationship to the current forecast, the S&P 500 is slated to decline by ~6% (Exhibit 17).

@SonnyCrockett92 "Nice talkin' to you"

Currently, 387 ships—including 145 tankers, 89 bulk carriers, and 153 commercial vessels—are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. There are 89 bulk carriers carrying grain, fertilizer, aluminum/metals, and ores. (V/@Marcomadness2)

@russellcrowe Looks bloody nice mate

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🔴The AI bubble is now larger than almost every market bubble in history: The 'AI Big 10', comprising the Magnificent 7 plus Broadcom, AMD, and Micron, now accounts for a record 40% of total US stock market capitalization. This matches the peak concentration of the Nifty Fifty bubble of the 1970s and the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Including the upcoming mega IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, AI-related market concentration would surge to ~48%, surpassing every major bubble on record. The only bubble in history with greater concentration was the Railroad bubble of the 1880s, which peaked at 63%. Is the AI bubble near its end, or is there further room to run?

@SonnyCrockett92 "Food stamps, Medicare and your government pension, everything will be alright"

Jawboning during the conflict has been effective to contain oil prices in a presumptive range. Now the conflict (hopefully) ends 'soon,' the effectiveness of jawboning will change, and oil prices may set a new trend downwards

@SonnyCrockett92 "Showing up like Lil' Abner ain't gonna cut it."

Sunday vibe, pal.

Signs the equity lift from an Iran deal is pretty modest. Suggests a lot more upside in bond prices & downside in oil here than upside in stocks (which already priced in the best case outcome). h/t @augurinfinity

US inflationary pressures are accelerating: The Manufacturing PMI input prices index rose to 80 points in May, the highest since mid-2022. This marks the largest monthly increase in manufacturing input costs since June 2022. The index has risen now +18 points since February, at a pace last seen during the historic inflation surge of 2021-2022. The current increase is led by Iran War-related supply constraints and rising energy costs. As a result, surging input costs are driving further job losses and pushing businesses to raise prices on goods and services at the highest rate since August 2022. Furthermore, US manufacturing and services business activity posted only modest growth in May, as rising prices continue to weigh on demand. Stagflation is accelerating.

The S&P 500 has risen for 8 consecutive weeks for just the 20th time since 1950. Check out this study's dashboard at: studies.dailychartbook.com/spx-up-8-strai…

@SonnyCrockett92 "Hey Crockett, you tell that lapdog of yours if he makes any moves I make a suitcase out him"

My good boy, Elvis, ready for the long weekend, pal. 🐊

@SonnyCrockett92 "The only monarchy you go back to doesn't believe in abstinence"

📈 China’s Trade Reaches Record $6.7 Trillion as Exports Near $4 Trillion China’s total goods trade climbed to a record $6.71 trillion in the twelve months ending Q1 2026, including $3.94 trillion in exports and $2.77 trillion in imports, generating a historic $1.17 trillion trade surplus. Since the start of the U.S.–China trade war in 2018, China’s exports and trade surplus have expanded sharply despite rising trade tensions and tariffs. Between April 2018 and April 2026, exports increased by 67%, while imports rose by 42%. Over the same period, China’s trade surplus surged by 190%, reflecting significantly faster export growth relative to imports and the country’s growing dominance in global manufacturing and trade. #China #trade #exports #imports #TradeDeficit #deficit #TradeWar #tariffs

Net sentiment of the Fed's press conference correlates with future policy to a greater extent than other communications. federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/t… #EconTwitter

@SonnyCrockett92 "Tubbs!"

S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 23% this year. We've never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=pJGsJO…

New Fed chair Kevin Warsh has a lot of challenges to tackle FedWatch Advisors' Ben Emons (@Marcomadness2) breaks down the biggest ones, and how to expect him to navigate cnb.cx/49gvM5m