Global_Macro

The three-sigma asset

Towards a peace deal normalization of oil risk and market volatility

@annmarie According to MarineTraffic about 5 tankers have passed the Strait----

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and yet Brent crude is trading sub $100– feels like an alternative universe.

@AnnaEconomist @FreightAlley What happened to 15 point peace deal?

@FreightAlley This is crazy. The rhetoric is matching Trump’s own bravado.

I’m not a fan of Iran, but kind of respect their insane bravado…

GS: Passthrough of Higher Oil and Other Commodity Prices to Inflation Higher Oil Prices Boost Transportation Services, Sanitation, and Accommodation Prices the Most

@SonnyCrockett92 "They can't catch what they can't see pal"

@lisaabramowicz1 @pboockvar Fed policy on a bed of gasoline

“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing higher.

The physical ripples

@jimcramer What is clear, Jim, is that the downtrend in, for example, Nasdaq futures is very trending, indicating the downside risk remains high (as much I like to stay bullish)

It is always intriguing to me to see the futures turn down sharply based on no new information as has happened this morning

Today is the six-year anniversary of the COVID Crash low. The S&P would need to fall 66% to get back to that level.

Fed policy on a bed of gasoline

New York City, 1987

@GunjanJS call option volumes on everything energy

Call option volume on the United States Brent Oil Fund hit another record today

The oil roller coaster

The intra-day reaction to the de-escalation signal

The 1962 Cuban Crisis may be the playbook how this conflict ends-- a de-escalation offers at the point of max drawdown

Retail trading activity in single stocks has plummeted--Citi

Hormuz zero bound

Incredible. A King Kong drone show is one of the coolest things I’ve seen this year.

1yr inflation swap now 3.37% @augurinfinity

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed below their 200-DMAs on Friday and also below their November lows. Downtrend confirmed. Read more of our thoughts at Bespoke Premium with our March Madness Special: bespokepremium.com/march-madness-…