Michael Marinier
10.6K posts
@MarinierCom
These are my opinions.
This is bad for South Africa. Trump posted the below late last night. It has clearly been triggered by the Expropriation Bill. During his first term he had already threatened to “take a close look” at SA’s land expropriation law. Rand is currently 1.9% weaker.
President Trump is planning reciprocal tariffs on countries that apply higher tariffs on the US (red) than the US puts on them (blue). Much of the focus here has been on the EU, but it's EM that's in trouble. South Korea (KR), India (IN), Mexico (MX) and China (CN) stand out...
Lots of questions about World Bank tariff (WITS) data, in particular if they capture FTAs in places like Korea. But the basic point - that others tariff the US far higher than the US tariffs them - is robust, particularly in EM and especially as you dig into particular goods...
President Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on those that tariff the US more than we tariff them. This may hit EMs - including Thailand (TH), Argentina (AR) and Brazil (BR) - hard. Some cross-referenced data points, which should be ok (India doesn't reflect recent tariff cuts).
Mbeki ANC nationalised mineral rights in that period, without compensation. Mining industry didn't even contest. Even if they won the case in a Constitutional Court dominated by struggle lawyers ANC super-majority in parliament could have changed the relevant constitutional provisions in response. Why would ANC change a constitution it had specifically designed to allow it to realise its ultimate goals?
