mark taylor

Reminder you can track Exp Goal numbers as they happen for all #PremierLeague #EFL Championship & #LaLiga games with the @InfoGolApp #MUFC

Just a 0.2% chance an average player betters or equals the 4 NP goals Mark Harris has scored for #oufc #skybetchampionship based on his attempts POTM shared with extreme +ve variance. The more blue, the more solid the underlying scoring process. #wba #MillwallFC #SUFC #boro #NCFC

. #SkyBetLeagueTwo #SkyBetLeagueOne #EFL #xG differential performance after 5/4 games, adjusted for strength of opposition, arranged in current league position. Blue>Red. Who's more or less where they deserve to be & who isn't.

About a 98.5% chance that an average keeper concedes 2 or more goals #AzeSwe #NationsLeague last night. Viktor Johansson #scfc conceded just the one. Decent night for the new keeper.

How improving metric differentials in #PremierLeague improves your points per game yield. No judgement on the direction of causation (crosses, obviously is reversed) or whether improvement is largely driven by the elite.

@themattmyth I haven't adjusted for reds yet, but it's straightforward for most metrics, you need to split the data for 10/11 men. I usually lump all the red carded sides together and make them a separate "team".

@MarkTaylor0 Have you already (or can you?) adjust for where teams have had 10 men?

Metric differentials after 3 #PremierLeague games are going to be more descriptive of what's transpired than indicative of what will happen going forward. But these have been adjusted for opposition & #MCFC #LFC & #AFC have blued out, while #MUFC #CFC & #THFC are more blue/red.

.#skybetchampionship metric differentials account for both defensive & attacking sides of the ball. Opponent adjusted because of the unbalanced early schedule. Blue rising to the top, red sinking. #SAFC #WBAFC #LUFC #Boro #SUFC strong across the board.

Wrote after ages. So, here is an article on my thoughts & ideas about xG xG has been a massively polarizing data parameter and it is misused too much Have a read and let me know your thoughts @drsmukherjee/the-nuances-of-expected-goals-xg-understanding-footballs-most-misunderstood-and-misused-5b85773e9314" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@drsmukherjee/…

Metric differentials for #skybetchampionship after wk 3. How are they progressing the ball, what's the #xG breakdown, are they getting the ball in the box more than the opposition, how high's the defensive line/pressing. Blue is generally better, arranged in league position.

Early days in the #SkyBetChampionship, but enough games to get some collateral form & opponent adjusted #xG differentials. Who's impressed with points & xG, #SAFC #WBAFC #Burnley #LUFC. Who's had the rough end of the schedule & or not quite had the breaks. #LTFC #CardiffCity.

xThreat, non shot #xG differential etc, call it what you want, in every #PremierLeague match in match week order for 23/24 season. Three very dominant sides #MCFC #AFC #LFC Four fairly dominant teams & a couple from the top ten who might have been in the bottom 10 & vice versa.

Over 40% of #HCFC 23/24 #skybetchampionship playing minutes will need to be replaced with new blood in 24/25. Here's the player churn for the rest of the sides.

.#BurnleyFC #SUFC #LTFC reunited with the #skybetchampionship Defensive improvement has been consistent for relegated teams, change in attacking output has been much more varied. Kudos to the two teams who had a smaller share of league xG in the Champ than they'd had in the PL.

Season previews & superficial guff go hand in hand. Latest to hit the news stand is that the 3 relegated #PremierLeague teams were historically poor defensively. Account for the #xG environment they played in etc & their performance was fairly typical for recently promoted teams.

Just an observation. #PremierLeague 23/24. How high a team defends and how often they allow the opposition to get touches in the attacking box. #mcfc #lfc #afc #mufc #whufc #nufc #thfc

You can partly contextualise progressive passers & carriers by comparing player non shot #xG added rates to their team's overall output. #CPFC have a couple of very saleable prize assets. Spot the out & out passers/dribblers. #MCFC #AFCB #MUFC #LFC #CFC #WHUFC #AFC #THFC

If you want to see how the #PremierLeague played out look at metric differentials, not the raw numbers. #MCFC #AFC #LFC keeping it blue. NES turning #NFFC into a creditable mid-table team. ETH doing something similar at #MUFC

.#SkyBetChampionship team/manager DNA, stylistic+productive. It's metric differential, what you do compared to what the opposition do, opponent adjusted. Good for looking at managerial change #SCFC #BCFC #SWFC Blue=good, Red=bad. #SaintsFC #WBA #NCFC #LUFC also #HCAFC

@DrMukherjeeS @BeGriffis There's been the odd attempt over the years to quantify shots that nearly go in (hit the post, just go wide etc), rather than assigning them zero xG2. Remember writing for Opta around a decade ago based on RVP's frequent wafer thin misses. Missed shots have unused information :-)

Sometimes data tells it's story in an interesting way 3.22 xG leading to 0.76 xGOT is abysmal shooting - panic shooting (50% off target) @BeGriffis this is what I was saying, teams when behind by a goal or two, just shoots hoping at least one will go in. #ucl #psgdortmund

.#SkyBetChampionship is now a wrap. Here's the managers who made your side good enough to stay up #SCFC #SWFC #QPR #MillwallFC , which stuck with managers & let #xG variance do the heavy lifting #PNEFC #Bluebirds & who was managed by Wayne Rooney #BCFC