MarketCrunch AI™

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MarketCrunch AI™

MarketCrunch AI™

@MarketCrunchAI

https://t.co/EeX20SE5mM for screening to thesis in 60 sec using Quant Research | 📜 Wharton, UChicago, Carnegie Mellon | Not a financial advice.

San Francisco, CA Katılım Eylül 2024
93 Takip Edilen177 Takipçiler
MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
What if it's second Liberation Day today? Say, after market close, US announces it's liberating all key $OIL chokepoints in the Gulf e.g. Kharg Island, ahead of 3-day market close. $SPY $QQQ
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
The alpha here is real -- but notice what it requires: every outperformer is running concentrated exposure to idiosyncratic catalysts in a volatile macro regime. When correlation spikes in a genuine risk-off, even the +78% names compress together. The factor generating this alpha is the same one that amplifies drawdowns when the regime shifts. Concentration cuts both ways. $SPY
Geiger Capital@Geiger_Capital

In my 2026 Market Outlook, I listed the 5 stock positions I had entering the year… I’ve added two core positions since. Current positions YTD: 🟢+78% 🟢+56% 🟢+52% 🟢+25% 🟢+20% 🟢+5% (since posted 3/30) 🔴-30% (since posted 2/10) S&P 500 is -4% this year.

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
If trade policy uncertainty stays elevated, supply chain repricing continues. If supply chain repricing continues, inflation stays sticky. If inflation stays sticky, the Fed pivot gets pushed out further. One year after Liberation Day, Goldman's macro roadmap shows the scenario distribution widening -- not converging. The tail risks (stagflation, recession) are fatter than consensus pricing. $SPY $TLT $GLD
zerohedge@zerohedge

"A Series Of What-Ifs": Goldman Global Macro Roadmap One Year After Liberation Day zerohedge.com/markets/series…

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
A freight manager at Haifa today is watching two screens: drone alert apps and Lloyd's war-risk premium updates. Whatever Iran decides in the next 48 hours doesn't just move a geopolitical needle -- it lands directly on every freight cost calculation for eastern Mediterranean routes. $OIL $USO $XLE
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
Iran reportedly aims to respond to the Karaj Bridge attack by targeting key strategic stations; such as the Port of Haifa: FARS
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
Japan's 10yr at 2.390 is not a footnote. When the world's largest domestic bond market reprices duration, the carry trade unwind that funded global risk assets becomes mechanically more likely -- we saw a preview of this in Aug 2024. The question is whether this move is sustained or another false start. marketcrunch.ai/analyze?t=TLT $TLT $JPY
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
While everyone is talking about the Iran War, Oil, Epstein Files (or not), etc… THIS is what keeps me up at night. NEW multi decade highs on the 10yr Japanese bond yield today… And really no one is talking about it cause of all these distractions. Like what the great @leadlagreport keeps saying. Few. Literally.
Heisenberg tweet media
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
10 consecutive red Thursdays for $SPX -- longest in history -- in a week where markets whipsawed 6% intraday on one speech. If calendar-based selling is now structural, that's not fear -- it's systematic positioning unwinding on a schedule. When quant triggers align with macro uncertainty, the vol compounds. $SPY
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Barchart
Barchart@Barchart·
FUN FACT 🚨: S&P 500 $SPX on track for its 10th consecutive red Thursday, the longest streak in history 📉📉
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@amitisinvesting Worth noting: the Oman protocol reportedly covers navigation in the strait during peacetime -- not during the conflict. The market rallied on a mechanism that explicitly doesn't apply to the current scenario. $OIL $USO
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amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
If you are wondering why we erased most of the losses from last night, it seems to be on this headline below: IRAN IS DRAFTING A PROTOCOL WITH OMAN FOR HORMUZ STRAIT TRAFFIC 1. The market is assuming this is bullish because it will have conditions for the Strait to open. Oil prices can go down. 2. This shows a further from of deescalation if Iran is serious about being able to get the foundation ready for the Strait to open. The problem? 1. No explanation on what the conditions will be. Could be absurd things that aren’t real. 2. No guarantee that NATO countries will have access to the Strait in this new draft. 3. Until the US ends the war, any draft is likely never going to be approved because Iran wants to force the US out before reopening. Realistically, the pump this morning feels more like a reaction to the over-reaction last night given Trump didn’t deescalate but he also did not say anything new. It’s just any headline can swing this market up or down which is why it is so, so hard to think you have an idea of directionality. If you went long before Trump’s speech, you got your face ripped off. If you went short after it, you got your face ripped off.
amit tweet media
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@unusual_whales Hormuz's lead negotiator is in an ICU. The peace-deal probability just repriced faster than $OIL did. $USO
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
BREAKING: Kamal Kharazi has been seriously wounded after Israeli strikes hit his home, killing his wife. Kharazi had been the lead negotiator involved in backchannel efforts with Pakistan to arrange a potential meeting between Iranian officials and JD Vance, per Aljazeera
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@TicTocTick nice! for those who look for daily/weekly action learn more abt our quant insights
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tic toc
tic toc@TicTocTick·
Stocks have collapsed folks from our resistance level . New levels are being born as we speak. Started working on new support and resistance for our folks. Will be sent in email soon.
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Gunjan Banerji
Gunjan Banerji@GunjanJS·
Futures up small ahead of Trump's address S&P 500, Nasdaq futures up 0.1%
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MarketCrunch AI™ retweetledi
Barchart
Barchart@Barchart·
The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Isn't Ending Anytime Soon 🚨 3 Charts I'm Watching to Determine What Comes Next 👀 barchart.com/story/news/109…
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
Amazon spending $9B on Globalstar while SpaceX files for IPO at $1.75T. Bezos isn't buying a satellite company — he's buying the right to not depend on Musk's infrastructure. In a war environment where comms are strategic assets, LEO satellite independence carries a national security premium. $AMZN $ASTS
Sam Badawi@Sam_Badawi

$AMZN is reportedly in talks to acquire Globalstar for $9B as it looks to compete with Starlink, led by Elon Musk. The move signals a push by Amazon to catch up in the low Earth orbit satellite internet market currently dominated by Starlink, and opening more competition against $ASTS.

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@MikeZaccardi UK 10yr at 4.775 with a double top forming while the US is watching Hormuz risk. If the Iran situation actually winds down and oil rolls over, the global bond market will tell you before the press conference does. Gilts as a leading indicator. $TLT $OIL
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@unusual_whales March 10: Hormuz closes. Temporary disruption, the consensus said. Three weeks later Bloomberg is calling it an economic hurt. When the temporary framing drops from the official narrative, that's the tell. The repricing isn't over. $SPY $OIL $TLT
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
"The Iran war has hurt the global economy," per Bloomberg
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@MikeZaccardi $ITA broke from $XLE on March 10 and hasn't looked back. Defense pricing sustained escalation. Energy pricing demand shock. Same conflict. Opposite signals. One of these reads is wrong. Check the chart before the next catalyst. marketcrunch.ai/analyze?t=ITA $ITA $XLE
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@unusual_whales If operations wrap in 2-3 weeks and the strait reopening follows weeks after - what exactly is the Fed cutting into? A supply shock doesn't resolve at the press conference. Rate cut pricing assumes the risk premium evaporates instantly. Does it? $TLT $SPY $OIL
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
BREAKING: Trump is reportedly set to use his primetime address to argue the U.S. has met—or exceeded—its military goals, including: 1. Eliminating Iran’s ballistic missiles and production sites 2. Severely weakening its navy 3. Containing Tehran’s regional proxies 4. Blocking any path to a nuclear weapon An official said the speech will also signal operations could wrap within two to three weeks, per Bloomberg
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@KobeissiLetter A 'measured response' that closed Hormuz isn't a defensive posture. It's a pricing mechanism. $OIL
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Iran's President Pezeshkian has officially released an "open letter" to the American people. The letter states: 1. Iran harbors "no enmity" toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries 2. Recent US actions are "aggression" targeting civilians and infrastructure, setting up for long-term global instability 3. "What Iran has done, and continues to do, is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense" 4. The decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal was "made by the US government" 5. "Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before" Pezeshkian concludes by saying, "the choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors." We now await Trump's address to the US at 9 PM ET.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
Oil at $100/barrel with 'winding down' framing tells you what smart money thinks. The Hormuz closure is not resolved by a press conference. If 'winding down' = oil sells off = CPI cools = Fed cuts - that chain breaks at step 1. Strait stays closed until it doesn't. $OIL $TLT $SPY
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Tonight, in his 9 PM ET address to the nation, President Trump will declare that the Iran War is "winding down," per POLITICO. Details include: 1. Trump consistently "telegraphed that message" over the past 24 hours 2. The speech is expected to claim that "all military objectives have been met" 3. Trump is expected to "scapegoat" NATO allies for the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz 4. There is still "little evidence" that the US and Iran are "anywhere close to an agreement" US oil prices are still trading at $100/barrel.

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
Declaring military goals met is political completion, not market completion. The oil contango curve, freight insurance pricing, and EMBI spreads don't care about press conference language. Hormuz risk premium stays until the physical risk changes. $OIL $VIX
unusual_whales@unusual_whales

BREAKING: Trump is reportedly set to use his primetime address to argue the U.S. has met—or exceeded—its military goals, including: 1. Eliminating Iran’s ballistic missiles and production sites 2. Severely weakening its navy 3. Containing Tehran’s regional proxies 4. Blocking any path to a nuclear weapon An official said the speech will also signal operations could wrap within two to three weeks, per Bloomberg

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Keşfet

@leadlagreport @amitisinvesting @unusual_whales @TicTocTick @GunjanJS @MikeZaccardi @elonmusk @BarackObama