$SPX Market Update

This Correction Was First Discussed Here in November $SPX has been in a confirmed Intermediate Wave (2) Correction since the break of the November Low of 6521.92 on March 20th. - For the fine details on the typical behavior and potential extent of a 2nd wave correction, please see the article linked to, below. - Note that this account first discussed this Intermediate (2) Correction with the establishment of the November'25 Low. As mentioned at that time, that was the 4th of 5 waves up from the April'25 Low, and the 5th wave Intermediate (1) - the wave up from that Low - and be corrected by Intermediate (2). I also began to regularly discuss the potential that Intermediate (2) had started right after the Jan 28th All Time High (ATH) of 7002.28. While 2nd waves typically correct a 1st wave by retracing 38-61% of that 1st wave, they can be shallower (retracing less than 38%) or deeper (retracing as much as the entire 1st wave). So far, this 2nd wave appears to be correcting in a very typical fashion, and appears on its way to reaching that 38-61% target zone, or 5662-6174. Until we see price action to the contrary, we should assume that that range is our target, and I'm using the 50% retrace of 5918 as a working target point. Note that we may see a strong bounce retracing a healthy portion of the move down before we continue well into that target zone.

A New Long-Term Projection On March 31st, the day after what we now know to be the Intermediate (2) Correction Low, I wrote: "While 2nd waves typically correct a 1st wave by retracing 38-61% of that 1st wave, they can be shallower (retracing less than 38%) or deeper (retracing as much as the entire 1st wave)." The shallower 2nd wave scenario proved to be the case here, and we can now use Intermediate (1) (which ran from April'25-Jan'26) and Intermediate (2) (which ran from Jan'26-March'26) to project Intermediate (3): More than likely, Intermediate (3) is targeting $SPX 8484-9823 as it will likely extend 100-161% of the length of Intermediate (1) (which was 2167pts). A break of 6609.67 would raise doubts about this projection, and a break of 6316.91 would invalidate it altogether.

From Monday's post: "Friday's new All Time High (ATH) at $SPX 7147.52 is likely the completion of 5 waves up for a wave [i]/1/(3). We should now expect a retrace of the move up from the 3/30 Low, most likely to be shallow and only 23-38% for a wave [ii], currently targeting 6830-6951. That should be followed by wave [iii]/1/(3) Higher." That projection is still on the table, with the 1st part of wave [ii] in place, and with tighter targets for completing it: 6981-7041 if very shallow, 6830-6951 if a bit deeper. A breach of 7147.52 invalidates.

Last week, I wrote: "We've now seen 3 of 5 waves up; expect a brief retrace of the 3rd wave for a 4th, then a 5th higher. That should complete a higher degree 1st wave." Friday's new All Time High (ATH) at $SPX 7147.52 is likely the completion of 5 waves up for a wave [i]/1/(3). We should now expect a retrace of the move up from the 3/30 Low, most likely to be shallow and only 23-38% for a wave [ii], currently targeting 6830-6951. That should be followed by wave [iii]/1/(3) Higher. Note that below 6830, we may instead be seeing a deep retrace of [i], targeting 6634-6830, instead. This is all predicated on us being in wave (3) up, with the Jan'26 High the completion of wave (1) up from the April'25 Low, and the March'26 Low being the completion of (2).

Last Thursday, I wrote: "If this price action goes above 6952.51, then it's most likely that Intermediate (2) ended on 3/30 at 6316.91." With the breach of 6952.51 today, $SPX has confirmed that the wave ending at 6316.91 completed and the odds of any extension to the Intermediate (2) Correction are now all but zero. We've now seen 3 of 5 waves up; expect a brief retrace of the 3rd wave for a 4th, then a 5th higher. That should complete a higher degree 1st wave.

On Monday, I wrote up a description of four scenarios, 2 bullish, 2 bearish. Two have been invalidated and two are now in play: "...The 2nd [bearish] one suggests that the 6316.91 Low completed A/(2), that a rally higher towards 6659-6740 will follow for B/(2), and that a final leg down will reach the middle of the Intermediate (2) target near 5918.... [Requires] a break of 6116.91..." The remaining bullish scenario "call[s] for 6316.91 to be the completion of Intermediate (2)...with a wave iii up [targeting] 6767-6948...invalidated below 6474.94." And that's where we are. If this price action goes above 6952.51, then it's most likely that Intermediate (2) ended on 3/30 at 6316.91. Below that level, the extended Correction scenario for Intermediate (2) is still in play. A reversal that takes out 6609.67 would raise doubts, but a break of 6316.91 would be required to confirm the bearish scenario.

Two Bearish Scenarios, Two Bullish Ones We have two potential Bearish Scenarios in play, both extending the Correction that began on Jan 28th. One calls for 1 more wave down to just "kiss" the top of Intermediate (2) target area of 5662-6174 to complete it and start Intermediate (3) Higher. The 2nd one suggests that the 6316.91 Low completed A/(2), that a rally higher towards 6659-6740 will follow for B/(2), and that a final leg down will reach the middle of the Intermediate (2) target near 5918. Both of these scenarios require a break of 6116.91, but the first one invalidates above 6651.62. Of the two Bullish Scenarios, both call for 6316.91 to be the completion of Intermediate (2), with 1 suggesting that a wave iii up is underway targeting 6767-6948. That scenario is invalidated below 6474.94. The 2nd bullish scenario calls for a lower wave iii target but allowing another jog down to near 6428.

A potential interpretation of the price structure of this Correction is that price has completed 3 out of 5 waves down, and may be ready to start a 4th up that retraces 23-38% of the 3rd. If so, a rally towards 6466-6559, followed by a 5th wave lower could complete this wave (2) Correction at the 38% retrace of wave (1), near 6174.

This Correction Was First Discussed Here in November $SPX has been in a confirmed Intermediate Wave (2) Correction since the break of the November Low of 6521.92 on March 20th. - For the fine details on the typical behavior and potential extent of a 2nd wave correction, please see the article linked to, below. - Note that this account first discussed this Intermediate (2) Correction with the establishment of the November'25 Low. As mentioned at that time, that was the 4th of 5 waves up from the April'25 Low, and the 5th wave Intermediate (1) - the wave up from that Low - and be corrected by Intermediate (2). I also began to regularly discuss the potential that Intermediate (2) had started right after the Jan 28th All Time High (ATH) of 7002.28. While 2nd waves typically correct a 1st wave by retracing 38-61% of that 1st wave, they can be shallower (retracing less than 38%) or deeper (retracing as much as the entire 1st wave). So far, this 2nd wave appears to be correcting in a very typical fashion, and appears on its way to reaching that 38-61% target zone, or 5662-6174. Until we see price action to the contrary, we should assume that that range is our target, and I'm using the 50% retrace of 5918 as a working target point. Note that we may see a strong bounce retracing a healthy portion of the move down before we continue well into that target zone.

Yesterday, $SPX fell down to within 1pt of last week's Correction Low. This morning, it's going to open close to 50pts below that previous low. 1. The Correction - the deep Correction projection pinned on this account in various forms since late January - is continuing. 2. We're still very likely to get a strong bounce retracing close to 61% of the move down from the Jan'26 High. 3. Once that bounce begins, wave A of the Correction is likely complete, the B wave will retrace the 61%, and the C wave to follow will retrace the move up from April'25 38-61%.

$SPX has broken Tuesday's Low, invalidating the short-term target and lowering the intermediate-term target. This retrace of the move up from last Friday's Low of 6473.52 could extend to 6507.43 or lower, but above that previous low, the upside targets will still be valid (albeit lower). For now, assuming today's Low of 6514.55 remains intact, those targets are 6692.65-6800, with a break of 6651.62 confirming the move up.

$SPX has printed a new Higher Low, consolidating above both 6473.52 and 6525.11, slightly lowering the target for the short-term move up. 1. A break of 6633.94 without a break of today's Low at 6533.11 confirms a move to 6641.94-6709. 2. That's part of a higher degree move towards 6703.21-6813.28, confirmed with a break of 6651.62 and without a break of Tuesday's Low of 6525.11. Around 6800, we should see a reversal back down to test and break last week's Low of 6473.52, or price will consolidate below 6800 and move up to test 6952.51. A break of the latter confirms that the Correction ended at last week's Low; a failure to do so coupled with a break of that Low continues the deeper Correction path.

I'm still projecting a move up to 6737-6800 (see the previous post, below). That's regardless of whether the Correction ended at Friday's Low or instead is correcting up prior to a new, deeper move down. For now, we're seeing a series of nested move, as the market consolidates prior to continuing the move up. A break above 6633.94 confirms a short-term move to 6677.24-6744; a break of today's Low at 6568.41 invalidates. A break above 6651.62 confirms continuation towards 6737-6800; a break of 6521.11 invalidates.

The retrace of the bounce up from Friday's Low has extended a little further, but has improved the accuracy of the target for the extension higher. Assuming today's Low (currently 6525.11) is the extent of the retrace, then the next upside target is 6737-6800: that's the 50-61% retrace of the move down and well inside the 100-161% extension of the 3rd wave up that likely just started. Again, once there, we'll look for a push higher to take out 6952.51 (less likely) to confirm that Intermediate Wave (2) ended at Friday's Low, or that the bounce up has completed and the next wave down is ready to begin (more likely). We're assuming for now that today's Low is not broken for this projection to remain valid. A break of today's Low re-sets the targets, and a break of Friday's Low invalidates the projection altogether.

Likely path for $SPX assuming that Friday's Low of 6473.52 was the completion of wave A/(2) of the Correction (or the completion of (2) if the Correction proves shallow). Look for a 38-61% retrace towards 6800 for a wave B, and then a resumption of the Correction towards a minimum of 6174. If price manages to get above 6850, we'll put higher odds on wave (2) having ended at Friday's Low (it will need to break 6952.51 to confirm). But it's way too easy to get excited about a one day move (up or down) and lose sight of the price structure and architecture being carved out.

$SPX is set to open 100pts above Friday's Close. With the break of the November Low at 6521.92, coupled with this big bounce, Friday's Low either becomes a very shallow completion for the Intermediate Wave (2) Correction (less likely), or the completion of the 1st of 3 waves down for the deep Correction scenario (more likely). In other words: - Either (more likely) Friday's Low culminated wave A/(2), and we're now likely to see a retrace of the move down by as much as 68% - towards 6675-6800 - in a wave B, before continuing down again in a wave C towards 5662-6174 (as projected since Jan 28th). - Or, (less likely) Friday's Low culminated a very shallow Intermediate Wave (2) and we're headed back to new All Time Highs, with confirmation a break of 6952.51. [Note: a bug that appeared in the X editor 2 weeks ago no longer lets me embed charts with text above/below them. I've reported it, but have had no acknowledgement from the X dev team. Hence, all the charts for now appear at the end of the post.]

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