Nigel Marriott
8.3K posts
@MarriottNigel
Independent statistician using data to understand our world & to predict the future. Currently focused on pay gaps, diversity, elections, forecasting, surveys.
🗳️ Holyrood seat estimate (March 2026): 🟡 SNP: 62 (-2) ➡️ Ref: 19 (+19) 🔴 Lab: 17 (-5) 🟢 Grn: 13 (+5) 🔵 Con: 9 (-22) 🟠 Lib: 9 (+5) Result: SNP minority government 🟡 -- +/- vs 2021 result
This is the biggest reform to our Parliament in a generation. 🇬🇧 This morning, the 700-year-old system of hereditary membership in the House of Lords was abolished. Membership is now earned through public service and merit, not granted by an inheritance. ✅
#Australia will vote for #Brexit on 19th October 2023! Will the political fallout mirror the UK's since 2016? Let me explain what I'm talking about... #TheVoice /1
With Rachel Reeves telling The Economist she wants closer alignment with the EU, our most recent data found 54% of Britons support rejoining the EU, and 62% support a closer relationship short of rejoining Results link in replies
🛰️ Update Article: Iran War, Day 17 OSINT Synthesis SPOILER ALERT: Your NATO allies are not coming. And it's not because they disagree with the war; it's because most of them can't fight it. I just published a Day 17 update to my Iran conflict analysis. Same Substack, same pipeline, substantially expanded; the update added ~30% more material including new research phases on military degradation, allied naval capability, and the narrative landscape across eight competing frameworks. The new section that surprised me most in my own research: the gap between European stated capability and actual Hormuz-deployable capability is enormous. Germany has NATO Europe's largest minehunting fleet and explicitly routed its newest, largest warship around Africa last October rather than transit the Red Sea ... against Houthi drones, not the IRGC (pointed out by @johnkonrad ). The pipeline for this update pulled from: 🔹 CEPA, USNI News, The War Zone — naval capability 🔹 ISW, Critical Threats — daily strike and battlefield tracking 🔹 IEA, Reuters, CNBC — energy and economic data 🔹 IAEA public reporting — nuclear timeline 🔹 CENTCOM and IDF briefings, open-source satellite imagery Same methodology as before: [CONFIRMED] tags for sourced claims, [ASSESSED] where I'm going beyond what sources explicitly state, with reasoning shown. Same caveats as before: I'm a civilian data analyst running an OSINT synthesis pipeline, not an intelligence professional. The goal is structured signal-from-noise. Same invitation: if you have domain expertise in allied naval doctrine, MCM operations, European defense policy, or energy markets and I got something wrong.... I want to know. Link in next post 👇
The party of Gladstone and David Lloyd George.
The fact that people still make fun of Rumsfeld for concisely explaining how rational decisionmakers should proceed is one of the great examples of bias making people looks like fools.
It's worth repeating, because this is often overlooked. Labour is now the party of the rich. No analysis of the party's strategic implosion should ignore that.
