mars

$NVDA 187.5P exp 7/31 Volume: 67,251 vs OI: 11,319 (5.9x) Premium: ~$1.5M Someone sold deep OTM puts with 1 day left just to collect premium into expiration, a near-zero-risk grab on theta decay. At 55% IV this is free money if NVDA doesn't crater 4% by tomorrow, and whoever this is knows exactly that.

$NVDA 192.5P exp 7/31 Volume: 71,019 vs OI: 12,777 (5.6x) Premium: ~$10.9M Someone just sold a nearly ATM put on NVDA expiring tomorrow for nearly $11M in premium, collecting max theta on a position that goes bust if this stock drops even slightly. This is pure conviction that NVDA holds into tomorrow's close.

$NVDA 200C exp 7/29 Volume: 76,037 vs OI: 9,208 (8.3x) Premium: ~$7.9M Someone just torched nearly 8 million dollars on a 1DTE NVDA call with a 0.29 delta, this is pure gamma roulette betting on an overnight rip with zero room for error.

$PLTR 126C exp 8/7 Volume: 2,953 vs OI: 407 (7.3x) Premium: ~$1.6M Someone is selling near-ATM calls into a 98% IV environment just days before expiration, collecting premium on a name they clearly think is running out of steam. This is a high-conviction bet that PLTR stalls here, and they are getting paid

$PLTR 124C exp 8/7 Volume: 3,091 vs OI: 606 (5.1x) Premium: ~$1.7M Someone sold nearly 100% IV calls a week before expiry on a name that has been an AI darling, collecting rich premium and betting this thing stalls out right here. That delta is almost 0.5, so this is not a casual trade, this is a firm dire

$PLTR 125C exp 7/31 Volume: 15,030 vs OI: 1,922 (7.8x) Premium: ~$4.4M Someone sold nearly ATM calls into expiration at 67% IV, collecting rich premium on a name that has been running hot. This is a vol crush play betting PLTR stalls out right here for just 3 more days.

$AMD 490C exp 7/31 Volume: 8,150 vs OI: 967 (8.4x) Premium: ~$6.5M Someone just threw $6.4M on a nearly ATM AMD call expiring tomorrow at 99% IV, paying an absurd vol premium for what is essentially a binary bet on a same-day catalyst. This is not a hedge, this is someone who knows something moves tonight.

$AMD 482.5P exp 7/31 Volume: 1,420 vs OI: 215 (6.6x) Premium: ~$1.4M Selling a nearly ATM put with 1 day left at 116% IV is pure premium extraction, someone is confident AMD holds here and is harvesting inflated vol before expiration crushes it to zero.

$META just printed an earnings miss and the stock is getting destroyed. Down 8.58% today, sitting at $535 right now, which is basically the 52-week low (per Yahoo Finance). That's the catalyst that caught my eye. But here's what's actually interesting to me. The headline numbers weren't even that bad. Revenue grew 33%, margins are running at 41% operating (per Yahoo Finance). The miss was on EPS, $6.18 vs $7.22 expected (per Yahoo Finance earnings data). That's not catastrophic. And yet the stock is trading like something broke permanently. What I think is really happening is the market is punishing the AI spending story. MSFT reported the same week and surged because their AI capex is already converting to revenue. Meta is still in "trust us" mode on the returns. Meanwhile NVDA is also down 5.7% this week as the broader AI trade unwinds a bit, so META is getting hit from two directions at once. The forward P/E here is 14.61 with 33% revenue growth and a 33% profit margin (per Yahoo Finance). That's genuinely cheap if you believe the earnings trajectory holds. 57 analysts with a strong buy and a mean target of $824 (analyst consensus via Yahoo). RSI at 31.6, deeply oversold. $500 puts are the most active options strike right now though, so somebody is hedging for more downside. Insiders were selling in the $607-661 range recently, which stings a little in hindsight. But BlackRock and Vanguard are sitting on massive positions (per Yahoo Finance institutional data) and I doubt they're panicking over one quarter. I'm not going to pretend this is a clean setup. It's messy. But at 14x forward earnings this thing is priced like a value trap, not a company growing revenue 33% a year 👀

$AMZN 237.5P exp 7/31 Volume: 5,703 vs OI: 736 (7.7x) Premium: ~$4.7M Nearly 8x volume over OI on a put that expires TOMORROW, bought essentially at the money with IV at 169%. Someone just paid nearly $5M to bet AMZN crashes by close of business today. This is not a hedge, this is a conviction nuke.

$META 540C exp 7/31 Volume: 10,461 vs OI: 656 (15.9x) Premium: ~$4.8M Someone sold a near-ATM call with one day left for nearly 5 million in premium, betting META does not break out by tomorrow. This is a conviction vol crush play, collecting rich premium as IV sits at 64% right before expiration collapses it

I’ve been getting a ton of messages about this so I wanted to address it here. Yes I was the single buyer of Leopold Aschenbrenner Situational Awareness’s entire $NBIS position after he was forced to liquidate it this week.

This Leopold / Situational Awareness story is crazy. > Go from $1.5B to $20B in under two years. > Over 1,000% since launch, 270% ytd to May alone. > Jane Street which almost never allocates to external managers becomes an investor. > $24B near the highs, levered as much as 4x. Up 439% for H1'26. > July 2026: AI names go down as much as 50%. > Compounded with up to 4x margin... > Leopold sends letter to LPs for additional capital reported by FT yesterday, says that this is a buying opp. > Today: CNBC reports Situational Awareness has exited all public equity positions. > One buyer takes everything, both L/S books, in one enormous block. > Jane Street?? Who buys a whole levered spread book in one go? Isn't that is literally Jane Street's business? > As an LP, Jane Street had the inside view of exactly his book. Which would make this even more ironic... > If it was JS, the arc completes: Leopold's rarest backer would be the buyer of his whole book lol. > What's left of Leopold? Whatever's left in the private book after selling Anthropic stake and the capital raise, if any.

oh my goodness CNBC reporting Situational Awareness sold their ENTIRE PUBLIC book including 50% of their Anthropic bro...this guy was the poster child of the ai infra trade he was 4 times levered...this is absolutely crazy did he sell the bottom? did we need this to happen to put in a low? or did he lose faith in the entire AI trade and sell it all?

Long $ORCL The market has been fixated on OpenAI competition and Oracle’s credit concerns. Meanwhile: - cloud revenue grew 93% YoY. - Remaining Performance Obligations reached $638B, giving Oracle years of contracted demand. - GPU utilization remains near full capacity, with management continuing to expand AI infrastructure to meet demand

Bought $TE Jan ’27 $4 calls yesterday. Today, T1 announced a $120M convertible notes with an initial conversion price of $4.46/share, above yesterday’s close. To me, this materially reduces one of the biggest overhangs: financing G2 Austin.

Bring back @jeromehpowell

What time the Korean degenerates waking up to gamble? $KOSPI

Some people are chanting $500, even $400 on $MU. At that level we hit ~2x forward earnings after next quarter. Which means Micron could buy back its entire market cap in roughly 2 years. Make it make sense. Micron can go private outright, or run a buyback so aggressive it shrinks the share count and inflates EPS through the roof.