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mars

@mars_labs

Stocks, options, and an unhealthy need to understand why things move. Posts are data-heavy, opinions are my own, charts are dark mode only.

Katılım Şubat 2018
383 Takip Edilen1.1K Takipçiler
mars
mars@mars_labs·
$AMZN 237.5P exp 7/31 Volume: 5,703 vs OI: 736 (7.7x) Premium: ~$4.7M Nearly 8x volume over OI on a put that expires TOMORROW, bought essentially at the money with IV at 169%. Someone just paid nearly $5M to bet AMZN crashes by close of business today. This is not a hedge, this is a conviction nuke.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$META 540C exp 7/31 Volume: 10,461 vs OI: 656 (15.9x) Premium: ~$4.8M Someone sold a near-ATM call with one day left for nearly 5 million in premium, betting META does not break out by tomorrow. This is a conviction vol crush play, collecting rich premium as IV sits at 64% right before expiration collapses it
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$NVDA 192.5P exp 7/31 Volume: 71,019 vs OI: 12,777 (5.6x) Premium: ~$10.9M Someone just sold a nearly ATM put on NVDA expiring tomorrow for nearly $11M in premium, collecting max theta on a position that goes bust if this stock drops even slightly. This is pure conviction that NVDA holds into tomorrow's close.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$NVDA 195C exp 7/31 Volume: 94,982 vs OI: 18,863 (5.0x) Premium: ~$19.8M Nearly 20 million dollars dropped on an almost at-the-money NVDA call expiring tomorrow, with volume obliterating open interest by 5x. Someone knows something or is the most confident gambler on the street right now.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$NVDA 200C exp 7/29 Volume: 76,037 vs OI: 9,208 (8.3x) Premium: ~$7.9M Someone just torched nearly 8 million dollars on a 1DTE NVDA call with a 0.29 delta, this is pure gamma roulette betting on an overnight rip with zero room for error.
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
I’ve been getting a ton of messages about this so I wanted to address it here. Yes I was the single buyer of Leopold Aschenbrenner Situational Awareness’s entire $NBIS position after he was forced to liquidate it this week.
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Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness exited its entire public-equities book through a single-buyer transaction just as its former holdings are ripping today: • $BE +26% • $NBIS +25% • $SHAZ +26% • $IREN +25% • $SNDK +20% • $CRWV +20% • $TE +14% • $AMD +13%

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Paradis Labs
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs·
This Leopold / Situational Awareness story is crazy. > Go from $1.5B to $20B in under two years. > Over 1,000% since launch, 270% ytd to May alone. > Jane Street which almost never allocates to external managers becomes an investor. > $24B near the highs, levered as much as 4x. Up 439% for H1'26. > July 2026: AI names go down as much as 50%. > Compounded with up to 4x margin... > Leopold sends letter to LPs for additional capital reported by FT yesterday, says that this is a buying opp. > Today: CNBC reports Situational Awareness has exited all public equity positions. > One buyer takes everything, both L/S books, in one enormous block. > Jane Street?? Who buys a whole levered spread book in one go? Isn't that is literally Jane Street's business? > As an LP, Jane Street had the inside view of exactly his book. Which would make this even more ironic... > If it was JS, the arc completes: Leopold's rarest backer would be the buyer of his whole book lol. > What's left of Leopold? Whatever's left in the private book after selling Anthropic stake and the capital raise, if any.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$AMD 482.5P exp 7/31 Volume: 1,420 vs OI: 215 (6.6x) Premium: ~$1.4M Selling a nearly ATM put with 1 day left at 116% IV is pure premium extraction, someone is confident AMD holds here and is harvesting inflated vol before expiration crushes it to zero.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$PLTR 124C exp 8/7 Volume: 3,091 vs OI: 606 (5.1x) Premium: ~$1.7M Someone sold nearly 100% IV calls a week before expiry on a name that has been an AI darling, collecting rich premium and betting this thing stalls out right here. That delta is almost 0.5, so this is not a casual trade, this is a firm dire
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$PLTR 125C exp 7/31 Volume: 15,030 vs OI: 1,922 (7.8x) Premium: ~$4.4M Someone sold nearly ATM calls into expiration at 67% IV, collecting rich premium on a name that has been running hot. This is a vol crush play betting PLTR stalls out right here for just 3 more days.
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amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
oh my goodness CNBC reporting Situational Awareness sold their ENTIRE PUBLIC book including 50% of their Anthropic bro...this guy was the poster child of the ai infra trade he was 4 times levered...this is absolutely crazy did he sell the bottom? did we need this to happen to put in a low? or did he lose faith in the entire AI trade and sell it all?
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
Long $ORCL The market has been fixated on OpenAI competition and Oracle’s credit concerns. Meanwhile: - cloud revenue grew 93% YoY. - Remaining Performance Obligations reached $638B, giving Oracle years of contracted demand. - GPU utilization remains near full capacity, with management continuing to expand AI infrastructure to meet demand
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
Bought $TE Jan ’27 $4 calls yesterday. Today, T1 announced a $120M convertible notes with an initial conversion price of $4.46/share, above yesterday’s close. To me, this materially reduces one of the biggest overhangs: financing G2 Austin.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
What time the Korean degenerates waking up to gamble? $KOSPI
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Trade Whisperer
Trade Whisperer@TradexWhisperer·
Some people are chanting $500, even $400 on $MU. At that level we hit ~2x forward earnings after next quarter. Which means Micron could buy back its entire market cap in roughly 2 years. Make it make sense. Micron can go private outright, or run a buyback so aggressive it shrinks the share count and inflates EPS through the roof.
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
$MU is valued at ~$900B at $800 per share. What's wild is that Micron is expected to generate cumulative profit equal to its entire market cap over the next four to five years 🤯
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$GOOGL 337.5C exp 7/29 Volume: 27,220 vs OI: 926 (29.4x) Premium: ~$1.8M Someone sold a nearly ATM call on expiration day into 638% IV, collecting pure inflated premium with zero time left for it to go wrong. This is a calculated vol crush harvest, banking on GOOGL not squeezing 0.4% in the final minutes.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$SOXL 110C exp 7/31 Volume: 13,221 vs OI: 1,063 (12.4x) Premium: ~$2.4M Someone sold massively OTM calls into 259% IV on a 2 DTE levered semi ETF, collecting inflated premium they are almost certain to keep. This is pure vol harvesting, banking on SOXL not ripping 18% in 48 hours while pocketing over 2 million
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