Matt Senior

#Vacation #Family #Cruise 🥂

Janesville got absolutely trashed last night. Almost apocalyptic here.

Tornado ongoing in Ponca City, OK. Take cover now!

Further north, prefrontal supercells and even front supercells have developed rapidly across the area. VWP data support all hazards, including any sustained semi-discrete supercells, with the potential for strong/intense tornadoes.

Called it yesterday

2:07pm CDT #SPC_MD 0475 , #ilwx #wiwx #iawx, spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md…

No one actually fully believes this, right? It’s not entirely unheard of to have an impactful tornado cluster event occur > 50 miles outside of a tornado risk contour. Also, Topeka launched at 12z, plus there were upstream 18z launches. Don’t get me wrong, the reduction in…

Tomorrow's setup looks pretty wild in the Upper Midwest. Obviously, the instability and shear combo looks explosive on the warm front. But most impressively, the deep shear shear vector is orthogonal to the front, suggesting discrete storms. If that happens, watch out.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center did not anticipate a tornado threat for the Kansas City area, prompting concerns among some that ongoing changes to staffing and weather balloon releases at the NWS might be leaving forecasters in the dark about threats. nbcnews.com/weather/tornad…

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Illinois and Missouri until 12 AM CDT

Tornado Warning including Lime Lake NY, Machias NY and Rushford NY until 8:45 PM EDT

Tornado Warning including Janesville WI, Milton WI and Orfordville WI until 8:00 PM CDT

Tornado Warning including Winnebago IL, Pecatonica IL and Adeline IL until 8:30 PM CDT

Tornado Warning including German Valley IL until 8:30 PM CDT

Tornado Warning including Muscatine IA, Fruitland IA and Letts IA until 8:30 PM CDT

Tornado Warning including Elkhorn WI, East Troy WI and Troy WI until 8:30 PM CDT

@PettusWX Deviant motion

@PettusWX OTG trying to upload

Gnarly looking cell in the Clinton, MO cell. Would not be surprised at all to see a tornado out of this.

1/ Now that most of the 18z guidance is in, I can say that based on current trends/outputs, Friday still looks like a potent day with bimodal peaks. Saturday also looks to have some severe weather, but likely not as intense as Friday. What is known/uncertain about these events?