Matt Costlow

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Matt Costlow

Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

Personal acct. NIPP Senior Analyst. Writes on nuclear deterrence, missile defense, arms control. Usual caveats. "To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield."

VA, USA Katılım Şubat 2017
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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
"China is the pacing threat" - bipartisan U.S. policy going back to the first Trump Administration. I believe that *severely* understates the threat. China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are so connected, revisionist, and opportunistic, we need a new pacing threat. A 🧵... 1/10
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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
Curtis LeMay in 1968 - pretty early promoter of space-based military forces.
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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
I believe the “fog of war” is endemic and must be worked around, not a condition to be solved. Partly because war is conducted by humans who are naturally fallible - and machines (even very clever ones!) are just one more vector for mis/disinformation, poor judgement, etc.
Matthew Kroenig@MatthewKroenig

Teaching Clausewitz in my grand strategy class at Georgetown University tonight. My students say the "fog of war" has been greatly reduced by modern information technology. For example, weather is no longer a source of friction. Check your iphone before the war. Are they correct?

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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
"...[in the West], there is always arms control, even without negotiated agreements. Arms are controlled and limited by the West's traditional values, by its political and budgeting process, and by the influence of the media and of public opinion." ~ WVC Goodnight New START.
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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
@lymanstoneky Unclear the altitude of the intercept - could be another interceptor was inbound for other threats below camera frame. Could also be prioritization due to limited number of interceptors.
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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
Sitting at home looking at my Amazon book wish list... Dark whispers fill the air - tempting me... I peruse all the knowledge I could buy and think...
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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
I was blessed to have a productive year of writing in 2025. Highlights include: - My dissertation on offense-defense arms racing - Deterring opportunistic and coordinated aggression - The value of allies; and, - Risk reduction with China (or lack thereof) Links below! 1/2
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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
Not sure which Andy Weber to believe… 2025 Weber says he “strongly believes” in modernizing the nuclear triad. 2015 Weber called the LRSO “uniquely destabilizing.” Which is it? What changed?
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Sir Humphrey
Sir Humphrey@pinstripedline·
As we enter the Christmas standdown, I wish a peaceful Christmas to all. My thoughts are particularly with those deployed or on duty to keep us all safe, and the families they've left behind. Cold war musings to continue aplenty in 2026!
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Matt Costlow
Matt Costlow@Matt_Costlow·
@HFayet @LyleJMorris The Department uses “Department of Defense” when writing or speaking to Congress, and Department of War the rest of the time.
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Héloïse Fayet
Héloïse Fayet@HFayet·
9/Enfin, on notera que c'est le logo du DoD et non du DoW qui figure sur la couverture... Acte manqué ou première rébellion ? Et pour aller plus loin, lire ce fil très complet de @LyleJMorris ⤵️ x.com/LyleJMorris/st…
Lyle Morris@LyleJMorris

The @DeptofWar just released its annual China Military Power Report (CMPR). Below are the noteworthy or new findings from this year's report, which include new assessments of the PLA's 2027 milestone and nuclear capabilities and strategy.

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Héloïse Fayet
Héloïse Fayet@HFayet·
🇨🇳 C'est Noël avant l'heure : le rapport annuel du U.S. Department of War sur les capacités militaires de la Chine est en ligne ! Il était d'autant plus attendu cette année que la politique de Trump envers Beijing est incertaine. Que dit-il sur les armes nucléaires ? Petit fil.
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