Vampire Killer
1.3K posts

Vampire Killer
@Matthias_Xu
Christ is king. 业余ES&NQ交易员. 日常po些交易笔记和碎碎念。








$50 OIL PREMIUM EXPOSED: SCREENS SHOW $104 WHILE PHYSICAL BARRELS ARE SCREAMING $150 Two oil markets are running in parallel right now. The financial screens flashing across the world show Brent futures around $102 to $104. But the physical market of real cargoes, refiners, and ships tells a completely different and far more alarming story. This extreme backwardation is no temporary glitch. THE PAPER VERSUS PHYSICAL WAR ➡️ Dated Brent has surged past $132 per barrel. ➡️ Forties Blend touched an incredible $147. ➡️ Asian benchmarks like Oman and Dubai trade at $50 premiums to futures. ➡️ Saudi Aramco posts record differentials as refiners battle for every molecule near the Gulf. THE RISK PREMIUM NO FUTURES CAN HEDGE ➡️ Every cargo now carries full war, mine, and blockade risk through the blocked Hormuz Strait. ➡️ South Korea, Japan, India, and China refiners are no longer bidding on price—they are fighting for physical barrels. ➡️ The physical market never believed the April 8 ceasefire and kept war-level bids. ➡️ It was proven right when diplomacy collapsed four days later. THE INFLATION GAP ALREADY HERE ➡️ Diesel now trades at $5.64 a gallon with trucking rates at $2.97 a mile. ➡️ March CPI energy component exploded 10.9 percent in a single month. ➡️ All of this is priced off the physical barrel, not the screen price. ➡️ Every inflation forecast based on Brent or WTI futures is missing $37 to $50 of real cost passthrough. THE PERSISTENT CRISIS AHEAD ➡️ This disconnect will not vanish quickly even if the blockade lifts. ➡️ Mine-clearing, tanker repositioning, and insurance normalization take weeks. ➡️ The battle for physical barrels is likely to stay severe for 4 to 8 weeks minimum. ➡️ Shortages hit import-dependent regions first while prices ripple everywhere else. THE BOTTOM LINE Most of the world still sees only the comfortable $104 screen price and assumes the crisis is contained. The physical market is screaming the opposite. The barrels—not the bets—will decide how hard the economy hits the wall. #OilBackwardation #PhysicalMarket #HormuzCrisis #RealOilPrices #HiddenInflation #EnergyShock #BarrelBattle










BREAKING: Iran has submitted a "10-point response" to the US' plan to end the war. Iran's proposal includes an end to conflicts in the region and protocol for safe passage through Strait of Hormuz. A senior US official describes the Iranian response as "maximalist" and said that it is not clear if it will allow progress toward a diplomatic solution. We expect full details of the 10-point response shortly.






















