Max Bessler

States most likely to ban data centers: 1. New York 2. Maine … 50. Virginia

Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang warns AI could wipe out 50% of entry-level white collar jobs, and college grads are already feeling it:

Kimi K3 was significantly but not massively above my expectations. I'd tentatively guess it's similar in overall usefulness/usability to Opus 4.8 and in overall capability somewhat above Opus 4.8 (while also being somewhat more benchmaxxed). As a pretrain, it's probably somewhere between 4.8 and Mythos (around halfway between?). Maybe this implies Kimi is like 8 or so months behind Anthropic in overall model strength/goodness (including usability) and like 6 or so months behind on overall capability (somewhat below Mythos Preview). This gap is presumably reduced by distillation (and more generally using OpenAI/Anthropic models) and algorithm leakage/diffusion, so I think that hypothetically if the US completely stopped and recent algos didn't diffuse, it would maybe take Kimi like 10 months to fully catch up to the best internal (including in development) Anthropic model. (I think this notion might be a better measure of where Anthropic/OpenAI are relative to Kimi, even though this hypothetical won't happen.) And if the US completely stopped, it might take Kimi around 27 months to reach the level the US would otherwise have reached one year from now (as in, with a year of further progress). My views here are pretty sensitive to how much benchmark performance is representative to overall usability. I think I now expect an open-weight AI which is straightforwardly "Mythos-level at cyber" (including usability etc.) in like 5 months supposing Kimi and others don't change their open-weight model policy. (I don't have a strong view about how big of a deal this is for cyber, but it may cause significant political consequences. This could be a significant overestimate of the time required.) I wonder what's driving Kimi being closer than I would have expected. Options include: - Experiment compute is significantly less important than labor (and labor at Kimi is competitive, which seems super plausible) - Implies more of a speedup from AI automating AI R&D and a bigger software-only intelligence explosion. - Or possibly Kimi is just doing much better than US companies and this is overcoming experiment compute disadvantages. - Algorithms are diffusing a lot / quickly (from e.g. OpenAI to Kimi). - Perf is overstated / benchmaxxed a lot. - Distillation / using OpenAI or Anthropic frontier AIs in AI development is very helpful for catching up. (But I'd guess Kimi K3 is a competitive pretrain which distillation doesn't help with?) - US companies aren't going as fast as they could for whatever reason.

Tuchel did everything that Scaloni would have wanted. If you asked, Scaloni after England went 1-0 up, "what would you like England to do now?" then he'd have said "sit back deep and let us push forward without any threat of a counter attack." And that's what England did. You can get away with it, barely, against Mexico and Norway. You can't get away with it against teams who carry so much threat from outside the box, like Argentina. You cannot invite Messi to put in crosses, you cannot invite Fernandez to shoot outside the box...yet we did. It's such awful, negative football. It plays completely into the opposition hands and it's almost impossible not rely on some luck in that situation. The changes should have been to bring Gordon and Rogers off, bring Rashford and Saka on, and get them on the counter attack with fresh legs on the wings. That's where a second goal could have come from, then it's game over. If you lose playing that way, nobody would be unhappy because the intent would have been right, at the very least. Tuchel should be better than this. A coach that thinks this is the way to go doesn't deserve the England job. I don't dislike Tuchel by any means, and I rate him as a club manager, but this is so poor. It's not just poor on execution, it's poor on imagination.

for anyone in tech with money: the annual percentage they want to take from you each year via asset seizure is what you should be plowing into super pacs, NGOs, and media influencers right now to beat back marxism. the hour's late, and nobody else is coming to save you.