Massimiliano Muccini

'Trans was a trend'. One of the most disastrous trends in human history.

For Bitcoin the Halving Is No Longer the Compass More and more signals point to the end of Bitcoin’s classic Halving Cycle. The model that, for over a decade, has shaped bullish and bearish phases no longer seems to guide market behavior. It’s a thesis I’ve been supporting since May 2024, just days after the latest Halving, and as time goes by, it keeps finding new confirmation. Yesterday, Bitcoin climbed back above 94k for the first time since November 17: • +17% from the late November lows • +12.4% from the intraday lows on December 1st • +3.4% / +12.3% from the December 1st fixing to yesterday’s intraday high (close/min–max) Over the last decade, such a strong start to December has occurred only three times: 2016, 2017, and 2023. In all three years, that early momentum delivered positive returns after 7 days, after 15 days, and through the end of the month. But here’s the most surprising part: there is no historical precedent after a negative November. Every time Bitcoin has closed November in the red, the beginning of December has never shown bullish strength. And looking even further back (well before 2015) every single negative November has been followed by a negative December. This time the stats are broken. September, October, and November were three completely out-of-pattern months. And when you add the unusual market dynamics I highlighted throughout the past year, even this December kickoff strengthens the idea that the current Bitcoin market cycle no longer follows the classic Halving Cycle playbook. In next update, I’ll compare this potential reversal with the cyclical structures we saw in 2025.