Max Reddel

just another quick update on this research paper from *checks watch* 2 whole weeks ago: as it turns out, the new opus 4.6 data point is so far out of distribution that using the *same* methods from their paper to get a sigmoid fit results in a asymptote 2x lower than reality

registering the prediction that moltbook will probably not become Actually Important, even if it does become a viral phenomenon covered in mainstream media. it'll be a neat curiosity, maybe even a continued source of intrigue, entertainment, and controversy, but not itself be some earth-shattering thing. yet it is a big deal. it is not even so much what it reveals about what will be possible in the future that matters so much (that has been obvious for years to most careful observers of this field). instead, what matters is what this phenomenon reveals *to whom* about what is going to be possible in AI, and what is possible now. it's "normies," a horrible word by which I mean "people not obsessed with AI," waking up to, well, the reason all of us are obsessed with AI. in that sense it is a little like DeepSeek, though perhaps on a much smaller scale (hard to know, but probably), which brought in many new people to the field and caused others to start taking AI much more seriously. on the whole this is good for AI and for society, though it may provoke some startled and therefore rash reactions.

I owe everything to books and solitude