Magg

@TopSekret3450 Curious if you’d recommend to buy shares or leaps for this type of setups? Thank you!

@TopSekret3450 Do you consider this as a short term trade? Does this conflict with the JD long position in your laggards basket? Thank you!

@ProblemSniper Sometimes I found my hesitation caused me missing opportunities and sometimes my reckless caused me entering the wrong trade or too early. Is there a way to avoid both types of mistakes at the same time?

@TopSekret3450 Great call! Curious why did you pick this stock to short? And did you trim on its way down before earnings? Thank you.

@satymahajan @unusual_whales @dreyonthemoon Thank you! Found it.

@MaxSrnbl @unusual_whales I use @dreyonthemoon SPX filters. Check his pinned post.

What a signal from the big bets filter on $SPY yesterday and today. 😅 Flow from @unusual_whales.

@shurmandan @NickTimiraos The longer high inflation last the more damage it’d cost. They better press the reset button. Now Brainard left, really no excuse for them to dwell on dovish euphoria. Pain for sure but a quick one.

@MaxSrnbl @NickTimiraos Can't hike aggressively they know we would be fucked. Their goal is to keep the charade going for as long as possible. A fraction of a percentile rate hikes to give the illusion of urgency. When they know contracting the money supply and capital limit on banks is the solution

Powell makes one notable change to his opening statement in his delivery: "If — *and I stress that no decision has been made on this* — if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes."

@TradingThomas3 He must have bought calls by accident again. reuters.com/markets/us/bos…

How does this dude still have a job

@NickTimiraos Being too data dependent has caused us missed the best window to kill inflation. Fed must outrun the inflation, hike aggressively just as how it printed aggressively. We’d get back to 75 bps. Watch the gas price rocketing, how many barrels of reserves US left?

Powell flags the JOLTS survey, the NFP report Friday, and next week's CPI/PPI: "They’re going to be important in our assessment." "We’ll be carefully analyzing them." "We have not made any decision about the March meeting." "We’re not on a preset path."

@NickTimiraos Give the Chair to her. One of the fews who can hold their ground. Look at the gas bill, and grocery prices… 25 bps makes Fed look like a chicken. One year of hiking we are still at 6.4% lol. Guess disinflation is transitory.

“It’s not always going to be, you know, 25 [basis points],” said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester “As we showed, when the economy calls for it, we can move faster. And we can do bigger [increases] at any particular meeting.” wsj.com/articles/feds-…

@NickTimiraos Bullard to fight inflation seriously.

The most immediate macro impact of Biden's reshuffle of his econ team, by elevating Lael Brainard to run the NEC, could be felt at the Fed. Brainard was "a coalescing force for the doves on the committee." "Who is going to take on that mantle?" wsj.com/articles/lael-…

@NickTimiraos When people find they can live on government checks and 0dte calls, no body wants to get back to their low paid table serving jobs. Inflation will stay higher and for longer because financial condition supports that type of life.

Policy makers have to worry about “the next inflation problem.” If the economy continues to add more than 200,000 jobs a month without a large increase in the labor supply, “whatever labor market tightness you have now would look worse in six months.” wsj.com/articles/boomi…

@NickTimiraos The short term inflation cooling can be largely contributed by the SPR release. Supply chain disruption can be counteracted by the surging demand from China reopening. Labor market will remain tight as people can choose live on government checks over a low paid job. CPI 🚀🚀🚀

Stubbornly high inflation is finally easing as supply chain disruptions fade and interest rates at 15-year highs put the brakes on demand But Fed officials have voiced unease that any disinflation might be short-lived because labor markets are so tight wsj.com/articles/fed-d…

@NickTimiraos Basically they want people to live a life on 2020 paycheck but pay 2023 price. they claim it’s victory? What a joke. In 2021, a bunch scallions was 0.69, now 1.69, 56% YOY. Do they only count junk food in CPI? They’d just exclude everything from CPI but free air. Problem solved.

The core PCE index rose 0.3% last month, lowering the 12-month inflation rate to 4.4% (vs. 4.7% in Nov and 5.1% in Oct) +2.9% at a three-month annualized rate (the lowest since Jan '21) +3.7% at a six-month annualized rate (the lowest since Mar '21) wsj.com/articles/consu…

@NickTimiraos After the biggest dove left, if the Fed still couldn’t do a 6% terminal by Q2. They’re simply just put themselves in a competition with Burns, no excuse. After all they were calling “transitory” at 5% CPI.

Powell put special emphasis on the category of core services inflation that excludes housing, given the potential for it to be stickier (and because housing inflation is set to slow) Dec core PCE services inflation ex-housing: +4.09% YoY +4.04% on a three-month annualized rate

@NickTimiraos That’s the same Fed who told us inflation was transitory when at 5%. Leave me no choice but 0dte calls 😅

@NickTimiraos She’d have gone end of last year if not earlier. I was able to afford eggs last year at least. Thanks to her leading effort to dial down rate hikes. I won’t trust Fed members wearing luxury jewelries. Doubt if she ever lived a life as a normal person for one day.

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard is being considered as the next NEC director for President Biden Brainard has been a leading intellectual advocate inside the central bank in recent months for a marginally less restrictive policy path wsj.com/articles/white…

@NickTimiraos Don’t understand which five member benefit from JPowell fcking up on taming inflation in his term? My utility bill almost tripled YOY. Fed better try harder to massage the CPI data to support 25 bps.

Fed officials are preparing to slow interest-rate increases for the second straight meeting. They could begin deliberating how much more softening in labor demand, spending and inflation they would need to see before pausing rate rises this spring. wsj.com/articles/fed-s…

@Reformed_Trader He is not a voting member this year.

Bullard speaks in an hour

@NickTimiraos @Reformed_Trader After all, lawmakers don’t know why they need a recession. RBNZ knows. Fed appears too afraid to know.

Concerned that New Zealand's central bank had considered raising rates by a full percentage point last month, lawmakers asked RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr whether the central bank was intentionally engineering a recession. “That is correct,” Orr responded. wsj.com/articles/a-cen…