Gaetano-Precise Market Analysis

47 posts

Gaetano-Precise Market Analysis

Gaetano-Precise Market Analysis

@MaxiYeo

Katılım Ekim 2012
23 Takip Edilen12 Takipçiler
Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
Ok I've got another one for you guys... $MTSI $CRDO $LWLG $SIVE $SMTC It's a company I never talk about, but am invested in. Again, it's not necessarily in the tickers above. It's increasingly becoming more of an optics play. Drop your best guess down below. If you get it right, I'll share my favorite photonics post that you've written! I scheduled a brief post on X. And a deeper post on Substack. To be released at 8:00AM EST. You won't want to miss it.
Gaetano@crux_capital_

One company has been on my radar... $CRDO $MTSI $SMTC $LWLG $SIVE But I haven't bought just yet The story and trajectory are very compelling The valuation is what is holding me back I am finishing up a report right now to share with you guys But I wonder if you can guess what it is... Hint: It isn't necessarily in the tickers I mentioned above And I've barely ever talked about it on my page

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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
This has become one of my favorite photonics plays $CIEN $AAOI $LITE $COHR $LWLG Ciena’s core business is in high-speed optical networking. One of the most important AI opportunities for them right now is scale-across networking. Think connecting data center to data center so they can operate like one larger training cluster without being limited by physical walls or local power constraints. Ciena is already seeing extraordinary demand here. Management said three major hyperscalers are deploying its optical solutions for these distributed training environments. But they are not stopping at scale-across. They recently announced the Vesta 200 6.4T optical engine, a new high-density, low-power optical product aimed at scale-out and next-generation scale-up architectures inside and around the data center. If they execute, that expands the story well beyond traditional WAN/DCI and pushes them further into the AI data center buildout. They gave a really nice post-earnings opportunity around the mid-270s. Now the stock is back around 360. There are always opportunities out there.
Gaetano@crux_capital_

$CIEN Is telling us something important... $GLW $AAOI $LITE $COHR The massive $600 billion AI infrastructure trade is hitting a physical wall. Literally. You can only cram so many GPUs into one facility before you exhaust local power and space. The solution is to physically break the data center apart and distribute compute across multiple sites. This shifts a bottleneck to the optical network that connect those buildings. $CIEN is the company poised to benefit here, and it's giving us massive signal. While their record Q1 revenue of $1.43 billion (up 33% YoY) was impressive, the true shocker was the order velocity. In just 90 days, Ciena’s backlog exploded by $2 billion to hit an unprecedented $7 billion. Demand is violently outstripping supply. CFO Marc Graff said that Q1 revenue "would have been higher but for these constraints". The bottleneck is so severe that nearly all new orders Ciena is taking today are already booked for fulfillment in fiscal 2027. To make matters even tighter, this cloud-driven AI supercycle is colliding with a massive telecom awakening. Service providers have underinvested in their optical infrastructure for about five years while they focused on 5G. Now, they are scrambling to partner with hyperscalers to build Managed Optical Fiber Networks (MOFN) to bridge the gap which is sending Ciena's orders in India alone up 40% year-over-year. (Read the full, extensive breakdown of Ciena's quarter and exactly how they are navigating this supercycle on my SS).

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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
$NVDA Key Reminders for Optics $LITE $COHR $MRVL $CIEN $TSEM Copper still matters, and will for a long time Pluggable optics still matter, and will for a long time CPO is moving closer to real deployment Optical scale-up is part of the roadmap "We need a lot more capacity for copper. We need a lot more capacity for optics. We need a lot more capacity for CPO, and that’s the reason why we’ve been working with all of you to lay the foundation for this level of growth." Demand signals matching supply constraint signals from all the main optics companies. Consistent.
Gaetano@crux_capital_

x.com/i/article/2032…

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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
Understanding EML & CW lasers📓 $LITE $COHR $AAOI $SIVE $MTSI If you want to understand where the optical supercycle is going, you need to understand this. This is going to be very simplified, but that's the point. Every optical transmitter needs 2 things: 1 - A light source 2- A way to encode data onto that light Let's focus on 2 main ways the industry does that: 1 - EML = laser + modulator combined into one device 2 - CW architecture = laser is separate, and the modulation happens somewhere else, often on a silicon photonics chip This distinction helps shape how optical modules get built at 400G, 800G, and 1.6T. It also connects directly to some of the biggest trends in the space like Silicon Photonics (SiPh), External Laser Sources (ELS) and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) EMLs remain very important in high-performance optical modules today. CW-laser-based architectures become even more important as the industry pushes further into silicon photonics and future CPO systems. I wrote a more in depth but still easy to understand breakdown on Substack explaining what both are, how they work, and why this matters for the optics stack. My next post will cover how the main companies I track like $LITE $COHR $AAOI $MTSI $SIVE are positioned in it and who captures dollars and where Will be very valuable! (This image is AI generated and is solely for illustrative purposes)
Gaetano tweet media
Gaetano@crux_capital_

This was an understatement! $TSEM $POET $LITE $MRVL $SIVE There is already so much to cover So far some bits include: $LITE & $MRVL on OCS $TSEM & $ORCL on OCS $NOK new networking innovations Separately: $SIVE CW lasers vs. competitors EML vs CW lasers + SiPh & CPO and more! This will be a very busy week for me My goal on this page is to really provide all the easy-to-understand information you need to be really informed on all the companies in my coverage universe So you can make the best investment decisions possible

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Gaetano-Precise Market Analysis
"New trailer drop! Dark fantasy meets high-stakes heist—who will survive the cursed artifact Stream the full series THIS FRIDAY. Don’t miss the twist ending everyone’s talking about. #EpicFantasy #NewRelease"
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SinipreAlrets
SinipreAlrets@FBkitty123·
Spotted a street artist turning a blank wall into a burst of color—passersby pausing, grinning, phones up. Art’s best when it’s unplanned, right
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Cheddar-Precise Market Analysis
Cheddar-Precise Market Analysis@myphVD93Z7K2ezE·
Task crushed! Just hit "submit" on the big project—relief + pride = the best combo. Time to breathe (and maybe treat myself later)
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Gaetano-Precise Market Analysis
Spotted a stranger help an elderly cross the street + hold the door for a mom with a stroller. Small acts, big warmth—you never know who needs that light today
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Gaetano-Precise Market Analysis
"Pick one tiny hobby today—water a succulent, doodle a cloud, or hum a tune. Small joys grow into big passions What’s your tiny start"
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Aitf Hnssein
Aitf Hnssein@ggg11123567·
Just folded a mountain of laundry—now where’s that coffee
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