Mehran Pourmiri

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Mehran Pourmiri

Mehran Pourmiri

@MehranPourmiri

Enthousiast 🥳 Professionele optimist 🤓 Inspireren🌟motiveren 🥂 Go to bed with a dream💭 wake up with a purpose #Bitcoin 🚀 Hobby 🎾🏌🏻☕️🤓🧢

Netherlands Katılım Temmuz 2012
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
First of all, I would like to thank 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗕 @100trillionUSD for his huge contribution to #Bitcoin community. Through his S2F model and explanation, he makes it possible to understand Bitcoin better. He recently announced via a post on his X account that Bitcoin price will reach half a million dollars on average. Let's breakdown his chart and see how he came to this conclusion. The image in this post belongs to PlanB. 𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒄𝒍𝒂𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒓: 𝑻𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒂𝒍𝒚𝒔𝒊𝒔 𝒊𝒔 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒆𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒖𝒓𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚. 𝑰𝒇 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒘𝒂𝒏𝒕 𝒕𝒐 𝒊𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒔𝒕, 𝒑𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒅𝒐 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒐𝒘𝒏 𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒄𝒉. 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝟮𝗙 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼 The chart presents the following data: - 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸: This is the height of the Bitcoin blockchain, corresponding to the number of blocks generated. - 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗶𝗱𝘆: This is the reward that miners receive for finding a block, expressed in Bitcoin. - 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸: This is the total amount of Bitcoin in circulation up to that block. - 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄: This is the annual production of new Bitcoin, based on the reward per block. - 𝗦𝟮𝗙 (𝗮𝘃𝗲): This is the average Stock-to-Flow ratio for that specific block height. - 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 (𝗮𝘃𝗲): The average Bitcoin price during that period. - 𝗦𝟮𝗙 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹: The expected price of Bitcoin according to the Stock-to-Flow model. - 𝗘𝗿𝗿𝗼𝗿: The difference between the model price and the actual average price. 𝗦𝟮𝗙 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼 𝗼𝗳 𝟭𝟮𝟮 At block 1,050,000, the S2F ratio is shown as 122. This means that after this block height, the Bitcoin stock is 122 times larger than the annual new supply (Flow). This increase in the S2F ratio is the direct result of the halving, where the block reward (and thus the flow) is halved. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝟮𝗙 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲? Each halving (which occurs approximately every four years) halves the reward for miners. This means that each year, fewer new Bitcoins enter circulation, while the total stock continues to increase. This leads to a higher S2F ratio, indicating that Bitcoin is becoming scarcer, which according to the model, should cause an increase in price. The S2F ratio of 122 shown in the table is a calculated value that indicates how scarce Bitcoin will become after the 2024 halving, suggesting that the value per Bitcoin, according to the model, should increase significantly. 𝗟𝗲𝘁'𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝗹𝗸 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗗𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸-𝘁𝗼-𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄 (𝗦𝟮𝗙) 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝙐𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙎2𝙁 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙪𝙡𝙖 The S2F model uses the following logarithmic equation to estimate the price of Bitcoin: `ln(y) = a ⋅ ln(S2F) + b` Where: - `a = 3.01158` - `b = -1.38495` - `S2F` is the Stock-to-Flow ratio - `y` is the price of Bitcoin 𝗦𝟮𝗙 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 After the halving in April 2024, the block reward decreases, causing the S2F ratio to rise. The image indicates an S2F ratio of 122 for block 1,050,000, which occurs after this halving. 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 Using the S2F ratio of 122, we can calculate the expected price (`y`) as follows: 1. Calculate the natural logarithm of the S2F ratio: `ln(122) = 4.804` 2. Substitute the values into the logarithmic equation: `ln(y) = 3.01158 ⋅ 4.804 − 1.38495` `ln(y) = 14.475 − 1.38495 = 13.09005` 3. Calculate the exponent to determine the price: `y = e^13.09005 ≈ 479,000` 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 The calculation suggests that, based on the S2F model, the theoretical model price of Bitcoin in 2025 could be around $479,000.
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James CryptoGuru
James CryptoGuru@Jamyies·
🚨 BREAKING: Jerome Powell officially steps down as Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve. After 8 years leading through a pandemic, record inflation, and nonstop political pressure, Powell leaves the Fed today. Kevin Warsh takes over tomorrow.
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
Groot contrast hoe beide leiders communiceren: President Xi spreekt als beheerder van een historische orde. President Trump spreekt als deal-maker en relatiebouwer. Xi’s kernboodschap is: de wereld is instabiel; grote landen moeten verantwoordelijkheid nemen; samenwerking is rationeel en historisch noodzakelijk. Trump’s kernboodschap is: wij hebben een goede persoonlijke band; deze ontmoeting is groots; met respect en zaken kunnen we tot iets geweldigs komen. Xi probeert vooral het narratief te controleren. Trump probeert vooral de sfeer en de persoonlijke dynamiek te controleren. President Xi is in dit fragment de meer gedisciplineerde strategische communicator. Zijn woorden zijn duidelijk ontworpen om het gesprek te verheffen, de machtsrelatie te herdefiniëren en China als verantwoordelijke grootmacht neer te zetten. President Trump is de meer emotioneel-persoonlijke en performatieve communicator. Hij gebruikt lof, overdrijving, status en persoonlijke band om een positieve onderhandelingssfeer te bouwen. Opvallend contrast: Xi bouwt het frame, maar Trump bouwt de sfeer.
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
Excellently expressed and visualized
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
Wat deze uitspraak zo schokkend maakt, is niet alleen de kille formulering, maar vooral de tegenstelling met het politieke merk dat Trump jarenlang heeft opgebouwd. Een president die zegt dat hij niet nadenkt over de financiële situatie van Amerikanen, terwijl hij zich jarenlang presenteerde als de man die juist voor “gewone Amerikanen” zou opkomen, haalt daarmee zijn eigen America First-retoriek onderuit. Trump bouwde zijn campagne in 2015 al op de belofte dat hij banen zou terugbrengen en Amerika economisch weer sterk zou maken. In zijn aankondigingstoespraak zei hij dat de VS banen verloor en dat hij die zou terughalen. In 2016 presenteerde hij opnieuw een economisch programma waarin hij sprak over een “American economic revival” en beloofde hij de Amerikaanse economie centraal te zetten. Maar nu, wanneer journalisten hem vragen naar de financiële druk op Amerikanen, zegt hij: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situations”. Volgens Forbes deed hij die uitspraak toen hij werd gevraagd naar de binnenlandse economische gevolgen van de oorlog met Iran. Dat is niet zomaar een ongelukkige zin; het is een onthullend moment. De man die jarenlang beweerde dat hij het land zou beschermen tegen elites, buitenlandse oorlogen en economische achteruitgang, zegt nu openlijk dat de portemonnee van zijn eigen burgers niet zijn eerste zorg is. Ook op buitenlands beleid is de tegenstelling groot. In 2011 beschuldigde Trump president Obama ervan dat hij een oorlog met Iran zou beginnen om herkozen te worden. Hij schreef toen letterlijk dat Obama “a war with Iran” zou starten om de verkiezingen te winnen. In 2020 pochte Trump juist dat hij de eerste president in decennia was die geen nieuwe oorlogen was begonnen. En in 2025, tijdens zijn inaugurele rede, beloofde hij dat zijn succes niet alleen zou worden gemeten aan gewonnen veldslagen, maar vooral aan “the wars we never get into”; hij noemde zichzelf zelfs een vredestichter. Precies daarom wringt deze uitspraak zo. Trump verkocht zichzelf jarenlang als de president van vrede, banen en koopkracht. Maar zodra de spanning met Iran oploopt en Amerikanen zich zorgen maken over prijzen, brandstof, inflatie en bestaanszekerheid, verschuift de prioriteit volledig. Dan is het niet langer “America First”, maar “Iran first, optics first, ego first.” Een president mag zorgen hebben over vermeende nucleaire wapens of mogelijke ambities van een land om nucleaire wapens te maken, maar een president die zegt dat hij niet nadenkt over de financiële situatie van zijn eigen bevolking, verraadt de kern van zijn eigen belofte. Want wie campagne voert met “America First”, kan niet vervolgens doen alsof de financiële pijn van Amerikanen bijzaak is. Dat is geen leiderschap. Dat is politieke misleiding, verpakt als daadkracht.
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
A biography of how the con man in charge swindled his own people under the banner of “Make America First Again”
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz

I am the Head of Product at Trump Mobile. There is no product. I have the best job in America. 590,000 people paid $100 each to preorder a gold phone that does not exist. That is $59 million. My KPI is deposit velocity. I have a whiteboard in my office that says DEPOSIT VELOCITY. There is nothing else on the whiteboard. We announced the phone June 2025. Gold case. American flag on the back. "Made in the USA." Ship date: August. I moved it to November. Then December. Then Q1 2026. Then mid-March. Each time I sent 590,000 people an email that said "exciting update." The exciting update was that the phone still did not exist. In April I deleted the ship date from the website entirely. I got a standing ovation on the all-hands. That was our most successful product milestone. The phone is a $499 gold Android. 50MP camera. 6.78-inch display. Fingerprint sensor. I have never held one. Nobody on earth has held one. We got the T1 certified for network compatibility in March. We celebrated like we'd shipped. We did not ship. We certified the concept of a phone. The network said: if this thing existed, it could connect. We called that a breakthrough. On April 6th I updated the terms and conditions. "A preorder deposit does not guarantee that a Device will be produced or made available for purchase." Trump Mobile does not guarantee regulatory approval. Does not guarantee production. Does not guarantee delivery. Does not guarantee the phone will exist. The deposit is non-transferable and carries no independent cash value. I have the printout framed in my office next to the whiteboard. That is the only thing we have shipped on schedule.  "Made in the USA" lasted three months. Became "American-proud design." Then "designed with American values in mind." We manufacture overseas. Final assembly of 10 components happens in Miami. We counted putting the flag sticker on the back as one of the 10. While 590,000 people wait for their gold phone, we are currently selling refurbished iPhones. Made in China. With a Trump logo on the box. For $47.45 a month on T-Mobile's network. We are reselling another company's network at a patriotic markup. The plan is called the 47 Plan. The 47 is the only original thing about it. An intern asked me last month when we are going to build the phone. I promoted her to VP of Customer Expectations. Senator Warren wrote the FTC in January. I am not worried. We will have launched the next product before they finish reading the letter. That is always the math. I know the math because I have been watching it evolve for years. Trump University promised education. Delivered weekend seminars in hotel conference rooms. 5,000 students. Settled for $25 million. That was version 1.0. You had to rent the room. You had to print the binder. You had to hire the speaker. You had to settle. Three entire obligations. $TRUMP memecoin. No education. No binder. No room. Peaked at $75. Now $2.80. Down 96%. 1 billion tokens minted. 80% went to the team. 45 wallets gained $1.2 billion on launch night while everyone else watched their screens. For every dollar insiders made, retail lost twenty. That was version 2.0. You did not have to build anything. You did not have to hire anyone. You just had to press mint. Two obligations eliminated. $MELANIA. Same model. Launched 48 hours later on the same audience. Down 99%. 24 wallets bought $2.6 million worth exactly 2.5 minutes before the First Lady's announcement. One wallet turned $681,000 into $39 million in 24 hours. The team controls 92% of supply. Her launch crashed her husband's token by 50% in the same hour. That was version 2.1. A patch, not a release. You did not even need a new customer base. You could cannibalize the last one. WLFI. World Liberty Financial. The President's crypto project. Took $500 million from 600,000 wallets. Tokens locked. Cannot sell. Cannot transfer. Cannot leave. Team holds 73% of supply and votes to unlock itself. The project's advisor borrowed $75 million on a lending platform he co-founded. Using investor tokens as collateral. On a protocol where the project is 82.7% of total value locked. Other depositors could not withdraw. The President's family takes 75 cents of every dollar. That was version 3.0. You did not have to deliver anything. You did not have to pretend anything would go up. You just had to lock the door and keep the key. One obligation remaining: the smart contract. Trump Mobile is version 4.0. I did not have to mint a token. Did not have to write a smart contract. Did not have to lock a single wallet. Did not have to build a lending platform or freeze a billionaire or rig a governance vote. I put a flag on a gold rectangle that does not exist, opened a deposit page, collected $59 million from 590,000 Americans, and then updated the terms to say the deposit does not guarantee the rectangle will ever be real. The version history, in case you are keeping score: 1.0 — Had to rent a room. Had to settle. 2.0 — Had to mint. Didn't have to build. 2.1 — Didn't even need new customers. 3.0 — Didn't have to deliver. They couldn't leave. 4.0 — Didn't have to promise. They paid for the flag. Each version removes one obligation. University had three. We are down to zero. My product roadmap is one slide. It says DEPOSITS. Version 5.0 will not need the webpage. The phone was never the product. The deposit was always the product. The flag was the conversion funnel. The name was the close. The terms update was the only deliverable. "Made in the USA" was the positioning until it wasn't and then "American values" was the positioning until that stops working and then we will find new words that mean nothing and those will work too because the words were never the product either. I am the Head of Product at Trump Mobile. I have never made a phone. I have made $59 million. The product is the transaction. Delivery is a legacy feature from version 1.0 and we deprecated it three versions ago.

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Joe G
Joe G@EastEndJoe·
MAGA math. 😂
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Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
When I compared this incompetent comedian Zelensky to someone who vastly overestimates himself, and who now has the whole world laughing at him instead of just a theater audience, I received angry reactions from every misinformed, self-proclaimed expert. So here it is once again, loud and clear: When a cabaret comedian wildly overestimates his own competence and manages to climb to the highest office the country can offer, his true calling, being laughed at, rather than laughed with, remains blissfully intact. Now, in a new role, he provides comic relief not just to a nation, but to the entire world.
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
TRUMP Phone 🤣🤣 This is what you get when you buy something from the con man in change 😉
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
Difference between Having & Knowing. Difference between Doing & Being.
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Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
Any acknowledgement of or even hint at a rapprochement with the East will trigger harsh economic retaliation from the government of the country that has occupied Germany for decades. Germany, wake up… your economy has been knowingly and deliberately wrecked so that you become dependent once again and remain occupied for even longer.
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Chay Bowes
Chay Bowes@BowesChay·
Astounding. A German Government spokesman refuses to acknowledge that the Soviet Union liberated Berlin. The journalist asks him to name the liberators. He stares back in silence.
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Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
Sjonge jonge… slechte prestaties lijken dit elftal inmiddels eigen te zijn geworden. 64% balbezit en dan alsnog dit op de mat leggen. Man, man, man… wanneer houdt dit nou eens op? De afgelopen jaren was er maar één coach die de boel echt op de rails kreeg. Maar omdat iedere zelfbenoemde voetbalkenner er zijn plasje over moest doen, hield hij het bij Ajax niet vol en droeg de eer over aan de volgende mislukkingen. Het wordt tijd dat Ajax wakker wordt en gewoon weer normaal gaat voetballen. Dit is werkelijk niet om aan te gluren. 🫣
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Benjamin Cowen
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen·
My wife gave birth to our 5th child. Truly, this is wealth
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
Stay true to yourself and don’t let the noise outweigh the people who genuinely value what you share. Your effort, knowledge, and honesty are appreciated more than you may realize. One negative voice should never be the reason you stop making a positive impact. We stand with you. ❤️
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Mehran Pourmiri
Mehran Pourmiri@MehranPourmiri·
Interesting lecture on international law, but this sounds like the speck and the beam. Illegal wars, threats to annex Greenland by force, fantasies about turning Canada into the 51st state, and open contempt for sovereignty elsewhere: so who is really undermining international law here?😉
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Daniel Lacalle
Daniel Lacalle@dlacalle_IA·
Iran doesn’t “own” the Strait of Hormuz. Under international maritime law, it’s an international strait, open to transit for all, and Oman is just as much a coastal state and stakeholder as Iran. The regime of the strait is defined by international law, not by Tehran’s propaganda machine.
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