Crimson Republican
15.5K posts
Crimson Republican
@MetsFanInTexas
Pro-Republican, anti-Democrat
The Woodlands, Texas Katılım Ekim 2020
6K Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
@BlueMissourians @ZacharyDonnini @VoteHub It’s on track to fail (as of now) by actually a decent margin
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@ZacharyDonnini @VoteHub I wouldn’t say that yet. It’s on track to pass by a Jay Jones margin
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Republicans should be cautiously optimistic about Virginia’s April 21 redistricting referendum. It is not a foregone conclusion, even in a Democratic state. The stakes are enormous: the outcome could flip four House seats, with major implications for both 2026 and 2028.
Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini
Buried in Tuesday’s results, Republicans overperformed by 10 points in VA HD-98, even as Trump-era specials have typically seen Democrats overperform substantially. This comes as @StateNavigate's EV data is strong for the VA GOP ahead of the April 21 redistricting referendum.
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Impact Research poll | 3/12-3/17 LV
US Senate Texas 2026
🟦James Talarico 43%
🟥John Cornyn 41% (incumbent)
🟨Ted Brown 7%
Undecided 10%
——
🟦James Talarico 44%
🟥Ken Paxton 43%
🟨Ted Brown 5%
Undecided 7%
——
US Senate Texas Republican primary 2026
🟥Ken Paxton 53%
🟥John Cornyn 37% (incumbent)
(Talarico internal)
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Crimson Republican retweetledi
I don't care what early polls say, Ken Paxton will not do better than John Cornyn. It's just Paxton voters saying they won't vote for Cornyn that will fall in line like always.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
Impact Research poll | 3/12-3/17 LV US Senate Texas 2026 🟦James Talarico 43% 🟥John Cornyn 41% (incumbent) 🟨Ted Brown 7% Undecided 10% —— 🟦James Talarico 44% 🟥Ken Paxton 43% 🟨Ted Brown 5% Undecided 7% —— US Senate Texas Republican primary 2026 🟥Ken Paxton 53% 🟥John Cornyn 37% (incumbent) (Talarico internal)
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@fawfulfan This is so laughably false. Polls overestimated Dems in 2020, 2022, AND in 2024. Three cycles in a row where they have overestimated Dems. And Beto led in several polls in 2018.
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Two other things I'd add to the analysis of this Talarico poll:
1. TX is not a state where polls tend to overestimate Dems. Beto didn't lead the polls in any of his races, IIRC.
2. That said, he's still nowhere near 50%. He needs to win a lot of these "reluctant Republicans."
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn
Solid poll for Talarico, but two caveats: 1) It’s an internal poll, so the modeled electorate is likely a bit rosy for him. 2) The Libertarian candidate’s (Ted Brown) vote share almost definitely won’t be that high (the Libertarian candidate hasn’t topped 2.9% in last six Texas Senate elections, and their average is 2.1%). Minor party candidates almost always underperform their polling. The Republican nominee likely stands to benefit more from these defections, but a decent chunk will probably go to Talarico and a decent chunk won’t vote, so you can’t just add 3-5 points to Cornyn/Paxton.
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@admcrlsn It’s actually a terrible poll for him. If he’s barely leading in his own internal, this race is pretty much over for him.
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Solid poll for Talarico, but two caveats:
1) It’s an internal poll, so the modeled electorate is likely a bit rosy for him.
2) The Libertarian candidate’s (Ted Brown) vote share almost definitely won’t be that high (the Libertarian candidate hasn’t topped 2.9% in last six Texas Senate elections, and their average is 2.1%). Minor party candidates almost always underperform their polling.
The Republican nominee likely stands to benefit more from these defections, but a decent chunk will probably go to Talarico and a decent chunk won’t vote, so you can’t just add 3-5 points to Cornyn/Paxton.
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
TEXAS POLL - Senate (Talarico internal) 🟦 James Talarico: 44% 🟥 Ken Paxton: 43% 🟨 Ted Brown: 5% — 🟦 James Talarico: 43% 🟥 John Cornyn: 41% 🟨 Ted Brown: 7% —— Fav-unfav Ted Cruz: 47-52 (-5) Ken Paxton: 37-55 (-18) John Cornyn: 27-60 (-33) —— Impact Research | 900 LV | 3/12-17 url4027.email.politico.com/ss/c/u001.6g0Z…
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@Kadennn12321 @StatisticUrban I think the people moving to Texas in the last 10 years or so are conservative, but not as conservative as the ones who moved here in the 90s and 2000s
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@StatisticUrban @MetsFanInTexas And the people moving to Texas are broadly conservative it’s what won the senate race for Cruz back in 2018 actually. Texans born here voted for Beto 49-48
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Crimson Republican retweetledi
Crimson Republican retweetledi
Rumors of the SEC’s demise and downturn appear drastically overstated on day 1 of the NCAA Tournament.
5-0 overall.
SEC Tournament Champ Arkansas rolls.
Vanderbilt wins comfortably.
Two double digit seeds win— Texas and A&M.
Played like the top-ranked KenPom league.
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Crimson Republican retweetledi
So Republicans are matching the games Democrats play. In Nebraska, they have a fake Democrat who will split votes with the fake Independent. In California, Kevin Kiley is going all in on being a “True Independent” while the GOP consolidated around 2 gov candidates to lock out Democrats. And in Maine, they’ve been chilling to let Platner and Mills collectively implode.
Politics1.com@Politics1com
NEBRASKA. A judge ruled against Dem activist Cindy Burbank (D) - a supporter of indy candidate Dan Osborne - in her effort to get back on Dem US Sen primary ballot. With her out, pro-life pastor Bill Forbes, a supporter of US Sen Pete Ricketts (R), is unopposed for the Dem nom.
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Crimson Republican retweetledi
The ACC is 0-5 ATS to start the NCAA Tournament.
N.C. State, SMU and North Carolina lost straight up as favorites.
Duke squeaked past Siena and Louisville held on late against USF.
The days of the ACC being the best basketball conference are long gone.
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@ChrisVannini The best conference in college basketball. Period.
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The SEC is off to a 5-0 start in the NCAA Tournament, including wins over BYU, Saint Mary's and NC State.
One year after the SEC had a record seven Sweet 16 teams, two Final Four teams and the national champion.
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Crimson Republican retweetledi
The SEC has started March Madness 4-0.
THE BEST BASKETBALL CONFERENCE IN THE COUNTRY!
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Crimson Republican retweetledi
@TeamTalaricoHQ @Timodc @jamestalarico I already wasn't going to vote for Talarico. You don't have to convince me.
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This is speaking truth to power and a lot of TX voters will relate
James Talarico@jamestalarico
The President of the United States said I insulted Jesus. You want to know what insults Jesus? Kicking the sick off their healthcare. Bombing schoolchildren in Iran. Deporting moms and babies. Covering up the Epstein files.
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@_jacobmatthews @WhatleyNC Whatley did choose a sex offender to be on his staff
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.@WhatleyNC would never choose Wisconsin over High Point.
This is the tyranny we must defeat in November!
Roy Cooper@RoyCooperNC
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@OptVikesFan Duke been getting away with a lot today
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In a close 1v16 game, who do you think the refs subconsciously favor?
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"SIENA IS ON A HEATER!"
Gavin Doty extends Siena's lead!
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Crimson Republican retweetledi
Told my friend to organize March Madness pool with everyone we know
$100 buy-in, 200 participants
If I win, I get $20,000
If I lose, I report my friend for running an illegal gambling ring and collect a $50k whistleblower reward
The ultimate win/win scenario
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@kkondik That's consistent. I'm just a blexas truther for Senate, if Talarico pulls it off by a point I could see TX-GOV getting down to the R+3ish range
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NEW Crystal Ball -- Six gubernatorial rating changes today in favor of Democrats, but Republicans still have a chance to buck the usual pattern of midterm governorship loss for the president's party
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