@aleabitoreddit Big week for earnings, AAOI , LITE and COHR all report Tuesday and Wednesday. Hopefully this will add some more rocket fuel to SIVE
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Michael Clark
23 posts
Yes, markets might have missed this with $SIVE + $GFS SCALE.
The inclusion of $SIVE as 1 of 2 public laser suppliers in $GFS ecosystem image presentation is a highly bullish indicator for Sivers.
Whenever semis like $AMD (using $GFS for CPO), builds their optical solutions with GlobalFoundries.
Sivers is the likely light source for their buildout and powers companies like $AMD -> Hyperscalers.
The hyperscaler buildout with CPO flows down to this tiny $1.7B MC laser light source in $SIVE.
siflower@siflower
@aleabitoreddit Today GFS announced its SCALE™ solution, and went up 4.3%. This is bullish for $SIVE.
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Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle...
This year:
Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI.
Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE.
Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI.
Curious if anyone can guess?
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@aleabitoreddit Does MRVL cancellations of their orders from POET, hurt SIVE?
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It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL...
Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha).
If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers:
> "US Fortune 100" customer.
> RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year.
> Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually
> $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications.
literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units.
That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications.
$SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.
Piyush@piyush1337
@aleabitoreddit We might be so early if Apple is really that customer 🫠🫠
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$AEHR Shorting commons here. 56.35$ avg Will add. Going to hammer this one.
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@aleabitoreddit Are you expecting a MC re-rating after earrings are released this afternoon or are we still a few months away from that?
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Well that was fast with $AEHR.
Up +14.28%… I did think the center of the next silicon photonics bottleneck at $1.1B, with tons of hyperscalers qualifying it.
Was kind of undervaluing it.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
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@aleabitoreddit $SIVE due to their currently low MC and potential rerate
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@aleabitoreddit What’s your opinion of the $AAOI offering they just announced?
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$RDDT is getting ridiculous.
Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months.
If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous.
And they’re growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth.
If you ever look at $META, you know how much revenue can be optimized/user. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for monetization with Reddit.
It’s already derisked since IPO since Reddit is now one of the fastest growing and highest margin companies in the market.
One day if it pulls a $CRCL post earnings,
we’ll look back and wonder how this was valued at $24 billion MC.
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@aleabitoreddit @Sher_Lockknows AAOI offering just announced
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Nothings changed with $AAOI and it looks like a buying opportunity.
I’d side with Rosenblatt analysts here where “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B”.
Analysts can be bearish on execution, and scaling capacity was always the focal question.
Don’t think anything’s new around here and this will always be debated until they actually deliver. Hyperscaler demand is not a question.
$GOOGL and $AVGO also signaled pluggable transceiver life extensions, but since $AAOI covers the supply chain from laser to design to assembly, they can have optionality that most people miss
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Soitec ( $SOI / $SLOIF ) is now up 45.58%.
This has a long way to go given their substrate-level monopoly over the silicon photonics and CPO architectures.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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Michael Clark retweetledi
A strange animal is captured in Antarctica following a helicopter
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INSANE 🤯
It’s a absolute bloodbath today 🩸
🔴 $TE down 9%.
🔴 $IREN down 6%.
🔴 $NBIS down 5%.
🔴 $CIFR down 7%.
🔴 $OSS down 2%.
🔴 $ONDS down 6%.
🔴 $RKLB down 7%.
🔴 $ASTS down 2%.
🔴 $PL down 6%.
🔴 $RDW down 6%.
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@hiteshkar Wow, very, very interesting ..There average buy price of $21.63
Outstanding research
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$AMD - OK, as I suggested earlier I might, I initiated position/bought some shares ahead of numbers today. I think this will be $AMD's day.
$AMZE . . .
$TOYO - added some more today raising average.
$ABVE - it looks like about to step up.
Neil Bhatia@neilsbhatia
Good Morning - the list: $TOYO . . . Rinse, repeat. Then $TOYO. $INTC to $65 as I said last week. Everything else is just conversation. $AMZE drop the deal now. If you are long $ANPA and you're not long $AMZE - this is irresponsibile. Content is KING. $CNTM battery/solar - VPP. Uplist/IPO. $ASTI $TE $RDW $EOSE - this is the theme. This is early. $AMD - hearing $AMD is about to have it's $INTC $MU moment and numbers . . . I don't own $AMD presently as below and I don't love earnings gambles . . . but feeling the need for speed here . . . may put on a trade shares and/or weeklies. $ABVE - where's the beef? $AMZE $CLPT $ASTI $DGXX $GLXY $FLNC $RKLB $BMNR $EOSE $PMCB $LAES $ASST $IREN $BABA $INTC $CNTM $ABVE $SATL $ENPH $SPRU $SPWR $NUKK $KZIA $TOYO
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GM All - fully FULLY loaded on $AMZE ahead of the weekend. Convinced a transformative deal is coming. This has been a win (50% up) BUT we haven't even seen the move yet.
I'm adding a new name - for those that are in $TE or like me missed it in large part . . . this new name is your jam. Multi-bagger potential handily. @hiteshkar (who discovered $TE as we know has a Report on it this AM). Run don't walk.
$CCJ for a trade here.
I am waiting (im)patiently for $ABVE . . .
Our Names/Holdings: $AMZE $CLPT $ASTI $DGXX $GLXY $FLNC $RKLB $BMNR $EOSE $PMCB $LAES $ASST $IREN $BABA $INTC $CNTM $ABVE $SATL $ENPH $SPRU $SPWR $NUKK $KZIA $CCJ
Neil Bhatia@neilsbhatia
$CRML $ANPA $AMZE $BMNR $CRML stock was at $1.50 last May when CEO Tony Sage engaged and reshared my post calling for CRML to 12X and be $20 on US investment. See below. We nailed it. YESTERDAY $AMZE CEO Aaron Day reposted my post which said: if you are LONG $ANPA or $BMNR you MUST be long $AMZE. $ANPA signs Khaby Lame stock goes from $2 to $180 . . . $BMNR signs w/ Mr Beast. $AMZE WHAT ARE THEY READY TO DROP? The way Tony Sage did his thing at $CRML after reposting my post . . . $AMZE is READY. $AMZN $META $AAPL $LYV - which one (or all) is COMING? x.com/AmazeCEO?s=20
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@neilsbhatia I have been holding 150,000 shares of $AMZE for the past three months, when do you anticipate we see the breakout and move to $1.00?
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$AMZE Good Morning All - Amaze CEO posted this last evening - it could not be more timely on the heels of $BMNR $200mm equity investment in Beast Industries just announced. The MASSIVE value of content and content creators is an asset class and one growing at breakneck pace. The $1, 2, 10, $20mm a year INCOME numbers OnlyFans, YouTube, The Food Channel and TikTok creators are getting is just beginning. Amaze with deals in place w/ all and MORE TO COME . . . COULD NOT be more ideally situated . . . I am hugely long $AMZE
linkedin.com/posts/aaroneda…
$NFLX $GOOGL $BMNR
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I’ve never feared black ice in my life until I use yansh knack ground last week
I no fit cry 😭
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