Michael Perchick

@evanfernandezz They are a poor fielding team which hits for no power, steals bases poorly, doesn’t control opppnents’ running games, and whose pitchers don’t get strikeouts. Unsustainable luck in 1-run games. Banking wins early is huge but a lot of metrics are *ugly*. Go Canes 🙌

@MichaelPerchick As a fellow Miami fan, it hurts me to disagree with you this much.

The Rays do a lot of things bad baseball clubs do. Sure it’s just a coincidence though

@_leeescobedo The buzzer beater at Washington when he jumped on the scorer’s table to celebrate has to be worth at least one full spot up

#20 (WORST): Steve Francis @SteveFrancis_3 🚨 Era: 2006-07 | 11.1 PPG / 3.7 APG Three-time All-Star arrives in New York...with two knees made of wet paper bags. Strengths: uh. He showed up? Most days. Isaiah Thomas traded for a man whose body LONG retired from basketball. Francis showed up out of shape and double cheeked up to MSG. But, in his prime, he was an all-time great. It was not his fault he arrived at the Knicks at the worst moment in franchise history. We forgive you, beloved. Come to the parade.

🗽 A TRIBUTE TO PAIN 🗽 BEFORE BRUNSON: EVERY STARTING KNICKS PG FROM THE '99 FINALS TO THE '26 FINALS From worst to best 20 point guards. 26 years of suffering. One Twitter thread. Let's gooooooooo!

2008: Calling the possibility of the Knicks reaching 34 wins in the upcoming season “a major success” (The Knicks finished 32-50)

@TJenkinsTampa That’s a reasonable take. I think they’re closer to a league average team, which still exceeds my expectations coming into the season. Getting MRod/Uceta back (big if’s) and utilizing glut of prospects who need to be added to 40-man for a trade could ultimately tip scales

@MichaelPerchick Yes, I definitely agree that whatever pace this would make them, 105 or 110 wins or whatever, isn’t sustainable. They’ve overperformed, yes, but my overarching point is that I think they’re much closer to a top-third team overperforming than a bottom quartile team doing the same.

@TJenkinsTampa Not saying this is all luck by any stretch. Rays do a number of things genuinely well which you’ve pointed out that I do believe are sustainable. But I think the reflex to point at the record and say “all is well” is detached from a number of things they really do struggle with

@MichaelPerchick So again, you don’t get to 34-17 by just getting lucky.

@TJenkinsTampa 2025 Mets went 34-17 over a stretch and finished 83-79. 2004 Rays went 30-10 over a stretch and finished 70-91. Bad and average teams go on heaters

@TJenkinsTampa 14th in FIP and 17th in xFIP. Are these bad? No. Are they good? No. For a team that is 9-1 in one run games to have such a large gap between ERA and xERA, FIP, and xFIP shows a large degree of over performance

@MichaelPerchick But also, teams that both create runs and prevent runs typically do. By wRC and OPS, they are a top-10 run creating team. By FIP, they are a top half of the league team.

@TJenkinsTampa Ultimately the question is this: do you believe the Rays are due for more positive regression in these categories than regression in others (wOBA, ERA, 1-run record, average with RISP relative to overall average)?

@MichaelPerchick I’m a bit confused why you keep referencing the stats you do, hence why I said they were purposefully selective. How strong do you think the correlation between stolen base value and winning is?

@TJenkinsTampa They have the largest gap in baseball between wOBA (T-6th) and xwOBA (26th) and second-largest between ERA (5th) and xERA (18th).

@MichaelPerchick ISO is actually your best stat as far as correlation to winning, and even then, OPS and wOBA are the most predictive offensive stats and the Rays rank 6th and 7th in them, respectively.

@TJenkinsTampa Last five seasons, zero teams have made playoffs while bottom 5 in ISO, SB%, and OAA. The stats I chose typically correlate to team success. Overall season stats are a more accurate assessment than solely one month, no?

@MichaelPerchick A very good month in a season that’s less than two months old would seem significant… but my point is not to *negate* yours, but to note your points are: • Purposefully selective • Skewed by a sample size of <1/3 of a season • Portraying the skew more than recent performance

@ECloskyWTSP Second biggest gap between ERA and xERA. 6th in wOBA, 26th in xwOBA (biggest gap). Yes, some stats are more predictive by nature but simple logic holds continued success with current metrics is highly unlikely. As always, appreciate the back-and-forth and your overall coverage

Good thing there are 110+ games to go! Because those stats tell me nothing about what the future holds. All it tells me is what has happened...and they ran a 34-17 record. So once again, this isn't hitting as strongly as you think it's hitting. Circle back to me at the All-Star Break and we can revisit some statistics.

@TJenkinsTampa I’d say that’s a very good month! And even with that… they’re still bottom five in all those aforementioned categories. I’m not sure how that negates my original point either

@MichaelPerchick Sure, but if I told you that over roughly the last month, a team was 7th in wRC+, 7th in K/BB, 7th in FIP, 3rd in ERA, top 5 in DRS, what would you think of that team?

The Landry Shamet 2026 playoff run (*great accident):

@TheWARmonger_ @LuisPerez8 Simpson has made a major jump, but DeLuca injury really hurts. Neither catcher grades out particularly well and their three best hitters are ideally all DH’s which naturally limits options, especially late-game

@MichaelPerchick @LuisPerez8 Yet they're pretty good defensively because their positioning is the best in the league. 5th in DRS and 3rd in team defensive efficiency.

@TJenkinsTampa Of course! But if I told you a team was bottom 5 in OAA, ISO, SB%, SB allowed, HR’s, and K/9 (pitching), what would you think of that team? Record is great. Ultimately, it’s extremely tough to go 162 games with those metrics and have success. This isn’t a hot take

@MichaelPerchick Bad baseball clubs don’t win 34 of their first 50 games so they must be doing some things that bad baseball clubs *don’t* do.

@ECloskyWTSP As I stated elsewhere, no team has been bottom 5 in OAA, ISO, and SB% in same season and made playoffs over last five years. I believe only two teams were bottom five in even two categories.

The power is more of “can they win a World Series?” convo. They have a Top-10 wRC+ In baseball, what goes up-comes down and vice versa. People think this is just in-season, but it can happen over multiple seasons. Is their record in one-run games unsustainable or are they balancing out horrific luck from 2025? Will there be a correction? Yup. They won’t be 90%. But do they have to crater in 2026? Nope. Not at all.

@ECloskyWTSP Also, as I wrote, “unsustainable” refers to a 9-1 record in one-run games and a .293 average with RISP. SP is legitimately great, I actually am more bullish on ‘pen than others, but the defense is very bad and there’s basically no power.

@ECloskyWTSP The inverse with Caminero is just as true - the value of the bat is dinged by his defense and baserunning. Rays are 26th in OAA, 26th in FRV, 29th in SB allowed per game. Fortes/Feduccia largely don’t grade out well in controlling running game. Defensive issues more than Junior

@LuisPerez8 Rays bottom five in OAA, ISO, and SB%. No team has made playoffs being bottom five in all three over last five seasons. I believe only two teams have been bottom five in two of those categories.

@MichaelPerchick Good lord. Not a Rays fan, but they're 34-16 and in first place. If that's a bad baseball club, I feel sorry for the rest of the AL.