Michael T. Lester

This is an interesting set of replies that seems strong on emotion but light on data to back it up. Then again, you did ask what people just “believe”. . .. Here's what current, defendable surveys actually show: The Reagan Institute -- not exactly a left-wing outfit -- just released their 2025 National Defense Survey. Results: Confidence in the U.S. military is at its lowest point since 2018, down 21 points Less than half of Americans believe the military can win a war overseas Less than half believe it can deter foreign aggression The #1 reason cited for the decline: politicization of the military Defense Department civilian workforce satisfaction: the civilians who actually keep the machine running, collapsed in 2025. Navy and Marine Corps: satisfaction dropped from 68 to 36 out of 100. Air Force: dropped 67 to 38. The nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service described employees as "fearful" and "traumatized." Hegseth's own approval rating: 40% approve, 49% disapprove. (Quinnipiac, January 2026) Feelings are fine, but not a good indication of actual combat effectiveness. The data says what it says. Question Everything.

DO YOU BELIEVE PETE HEGSETH HAS MADE THE U.S. MILITARY STRONGER?

True, but needs to be taken in context. The 30-day extension exists for 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘧𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘥𝘳𝘢𝘸𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘰𝘱𝘴. The statute is clear on this. It requires the president to certify in writing that military necessity requires it "respecting the safety of U.S. Armed Forces." It is a wind-down provision, not a continuation provision. Using it to keep fighting would be a direct violation of the law's plain text.

@MichaelTLester The War Powers Resolution of 1973 includes a 30-day extension beyond the initial 60-day limit for the president to remove U.S. armed forces from hostilities without congressional authorization.

The War Powers Act 60-day clock expires today on U.S. military operations in Iran. Sec. Hegseth says the clock is "paused" due to a ceasefire, but that language doesn't exist in the law. Congress now has three choices: 1) Vote to authorize the war. 2) Watch withdrawal begin tomorrow. 3) Do nothing and confirm what has been creeping true for decades: Congress has voluntarily surrendered the war power to the executive. Permanently. This isn't partisan. It's the law passed in 1973 specifically to prevent this moment after painful experiences in Korea and Vietnam.

This is a worldwide phenomenon, and it's just math. In this graph, the blue is the worldwide population. The red is the rate of growth. The population is still growing, but the rate of growth has been slowing since 1968. Mathematically, it appears that the human population will hit a tipping point and start to decline around the year 2086, unless accelerated by war, environment conditions affecting the food pipeline, another virus pandemic, or a combination of those.

US fertility rates just hit another record low In 2025, the US general fertility rate fell to 53.1 - the lowest level ever recorded Japan, South Korea, and Germany have already been shrinking for years. Japan has been shrinking for years, South Korea’s population has already started to decline, and Germany would be shrinking without immigration Now the UK joins them - deaths will outnumber births every single year starting in 2026 No economy grows without people No pension system survives without young workers No culture persists without families having children This is the slowest civilizational crisis in human history

Tehran's No-Surrender Moment: Ex-US Marine Pilot On How Washington Is Misreading Iran Former US Marine combat pilot Michael T. Lester (@MichaelTLester) says Iran cannot politically afford to surrender now. “Any capitulation would project weakness, destabilise the regime, and embolden rivals.” He argues only a regional security settlement, without U.S. involvement, can end the crisis. #Iran #US #MiddleEast #Israel @prasadaditi

"If we've won, why are we still there?" Joined @TimesofIndia Digital to break down the US-Iran war, the naval blockade, and why a ground campaign would be catastrophic. We Are the Bad Guys predicted this. youtu.be/5a8lykSQOhE

Interesting data. Worth asking whether this is purge-driven or selection-driven. If higher IQ and knowledge correlate with liberal leanings independent of academia, you'd expect this distribution even without active exclusion. The chart can't tell us which mechanism dominates. Probably both.

What’s impressive about this is that the education system didn’t just eliminate virtually all conservative thought as it moved toward left wing extremism, they got rid of almost anyone who was in the middle too. Anyone who doesn’t fully comply with the groupthink isn’t welcome.

1) Spain didn't agree to blindly follow Trump into an ill-advised, illegal war. 2) Trump states the U.S. will cut off all trade with Spain. 3) China supports Spain and they sign an investment agreement. This is how empires die... in their own hubris... We're watching it in real time. youtube.com/watch?v=A8Lhy_… translation：In line with the general trend of the times, the world today is plagued with chaos, and the international order is in disarray. How a country treats international law and order reflects its worldview, values, view of order, and sense of responsibility. Both China and Spain are countries that uphold principles and morality, and are willing to stand on the right side of history. We should strengthen communication, consolidate mutual trust, cooperate closely, oppose the world's regression to the law of the jungle, jointly defend true multilateralism, and safeguard global peace and development.

@Chrisquatch @NewsX The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) places the cost run rate at ~$1.6 Billion a day. This is day 44. This is without congressional approval and congress continues to refuse to invoke the War Powers Act.

45 billion in six weeks is absolutely absurd. I listened very carefully to an interview with Col. Pete Blaber and he was speaking about the logistics profiteering during and after the 03 invasion. Haliburton had $39.5 billion in contracts over a decade with something like a 75% revenue boost into 04? This was over the span of a decade and we burned $45 billion in a month and a half. What is happening? 🤦🏻‍♂️

Thank you, @NewsX for having me on this episode to discuss the ongoing U.S. involvement in Iran.

@isaacrrr7 POINT OF FACT: Neither the U.S. nor Iran signed the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). It's a treaty that neither agreed to, so it is a moot point.

El Estrecho de Ormuz es un estrecho internacional. Según la Convención de la ONU sobre el Derecho del Mar, todos los buques tienen libertad de navegación. Ningún Estado puede suspender ese derecho. ¿Por qué nadie condena a Irán por violar el ‘derecho internacional’?

The madman theory works when the irrationality is knowingly controlled, like Nixon did when he had Kissinger whispering to Moscow. With Iran, there is no rational backstop. No "good cop" balance. Our allies can't tell the difference between strategy and instability, and neither can the economy. My post was just about the reality of civics. The 25th isn't happening. Congress is the lever.

@MichaelTLester My assumption here, is that while abnormal for reasonable followers with standards of the office, they aren't realizing that when dealing with sane, but dangerous people with nothing to lose, you need them to believe you're more crazy than they are.

Everyone is screaming #25thAmendmentNow. What many don't realize is: Invoking section 4 of the 25th Amendment (involuntary removal) isn't done by congress. It is only invoked by the Vice-President and a majority of the President's own cabinet. That's JD Vance. That's Pete Hegseth. That's not going to happen. The only real path right now is congressional pressure. Our congress needs to stop coddling and start doing their job, i.e. representing us. 60% of Americans don't want this. Even a Fox "News" poll found 58% oppose it. Call your representatives. Today. Link in my previous post.

@AJPhillipsEsq @ajphillipsesq Thanks for recommending my book!

We Are The Bad Guys waterstones.com/book/we-are-th…

The United States ranks 57th in the world for freedom of speech and is classified as "problematic. "(rsf.org/en/index) 57th. Behind Jamaica. Behind Timor-Leste. Behind Namibia. Behind South Africa. Behind Ghana. Here is why. I quoted the Declaration of Independence. I used the word "revolution." Two hours later, impressions throttled from 90,000-100,000 an hour, to almost nothing. X is an American company. The Founders are rolling in their graves. This is what "problematic" looks like from the inside.

Many of you are saying "America has always done this." You're not wrong. Guatemala. Iran 1953. Vietnam. Iraq. The history is real, it's damning, and I cover all of this in my book. But today is different. Every previous administration committed these acts while at least maintaining the fiction that we were the good guys. They worked in the shadows. They used proxies. They issued careful statements and let historians sort it out later. that doesn't make it better, but it means that people didn't know what was happening in their name in real time. Today, a sitting president said...out loud, in real time, before the action...that a whole civilization will die at his bidding. That's not rhetoric. That's not negotiation. That's not something that can be explained away, and that's not something that the people he is representing should ignore or that they can claim ignorance about. We can't pretend like we didn't know, and things were done without our knowledge and without our permission. If we don't stand up and say "enough," we are all complicit. That is the line. That is why this moment is different.

Enough! If there was ever a red line in world history, we are here. It really doesn't matter if you are liberal or conservative, or who you voted for in the last election-- there is no way you can be a good American, good Christian, or good person if you support a leader that makes statements like this. If you try to dismiss this, try to explain it away as "good negotiating tactic", or try to justify it in any way, you are just a bad person. It's that simple. If you don't understand this, you just prove the point. The American people are not the Mafia or the mob. We don't threaten to kill whole families or civilizations if we don't get our way, especially if "getting our way" means stealing from and killing other people that have not attacked us. If our elected representatives can't understand this, don't have the moral courage to stand up and represent us the way they should, and reign in this megalomaniac, We The People will have no choice other than revolution. That's the point our revered founding fathers got to and that is where we are now. "...That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..."

Many people are asking what they can do. This is what I suggest, right now: We need to rely, at least for the time being, on our elected officials that have the immediate power to make changes. If you don’t know who your representatives are, go to congress.gov/members/find-y… and find your representatives. (2 senators and 1 congress member). Go to each of their sites, click on “contact me. Use the topic choice of “𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬” and the Subject of “𝐃𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐬 𝐔𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐦..” 𝑰 𝒂𝒎 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑰 𝒂𝒎 𝒘𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒐 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒊𝒎𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏. 𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑻𝒓𝒖𝒎𝒑'𝒔 𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒅𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒖𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒂𝒏 𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒓𝒆 𝒄𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒛𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒊𝒔 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒂 𝒏𝒆𝒈𝒐𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒄. 𝑰𝒕 𝒊𝒔 𝒂𝒏 𝒖𝒍𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒖𝒎 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒗𝒊𝒐𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒍𝒂𝒘, 𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒓𝒔 𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏, 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒚 𝑨𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒏. 𝑰 𝒂𝒎 𝒂𝒔𝒌𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒕𝒐: 𝟏. 𝑷𝒖𝒃𝒍𝒊𝒄𝒍𝒚 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒊𝒏 𝒖𝒏𝒂𝒎𝒃𝒊𝒈𝒖𝒐𝒖𝒔 𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒎𝒔. 𝟐. 𝑰𝒏𝒗𝒐𝒌𝒆 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒂𝒖𝒕𝒉𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒕𝒐 𝒄𝒉𝒆𝒄𝒌 𝒆𝒙𝒆𝒄𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒘𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓𝒔. 𝟑. 𝑪𝒐-𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒓 𝒐𝒓 𝒔𝒖𝒑𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒚 𝒍𝒆𝒈𝒊𝒔𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒓 𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕'𝒔 𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒕𝒐 𝒊𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒎𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒂𝒓𝒚 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒗𝒂𝒍. 𝑯𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒚 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒋𝒖𝒅𝒈𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒚 𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒐𝒇𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒃𝒚 𝒘𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒚 𝒅𝒊𝒅, 𝒐𝒓 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒐 𝒅𝒐, 𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒎𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕. 𝑰 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒆. They may not read every message, but what we want is for them to get a huge spike of messages that they can’t ignore. We want their staff to tell them “We just got a 400% increase in messages, all against President Trump’s current ultimatum.” That will start to get their attention. After that, CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE'S LOCAL STATE OFFICE — NOT WASHINGTON D.C. (Local offices answer more reliably and your message goes directly into their constituent log.) When someone answers or you get voicemail, say: "𝑯𝒊, 𝒎𝒚 𝒏𝒂𝒎𝒆 𝒊𝒔 [𝑵𝒂𝒎𝒆] 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑰'𝒎 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 [𝑪𝒊𝒕𝒚]. 𝑰'𝒎 𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒃𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑻𝒓𝒖𝒎𝒑'𝒔 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒅𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒖𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝑰𝒓𝒂𝒏. 𝑰 𝒘𝒂𝒏𝒕 [𝑺𝒆𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒓/𝑹𝒆𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝑵𝒂𝒎𝒆] 𝒕𝒐 𝒌𝒏𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑰 𝒂𝒎 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒔: 𝑶𝒏𝒆 — 𝒂 𝒑𝒖𝒃𝒍𝒊𝒄 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕. 𝑻𝒘𝒐 — 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒕𝒐 𝒊𝒏𝒗𝒐𝒌𝒆 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒘𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒂𝒖𝒕𝒉𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒚. 𝑻𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒆 — 𝒔𝒖𝒑𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒂𝒏𝒚 𝒍𝒆𝒈𝒊𝒔𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕'𝒔 𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒕𝒐 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒓𝒕 𝒂 𝒘𝒂𝒓 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒔. 𝑰 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 𝒘𝒂𝒕𝒄𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒉𝒐𝒘 [𝒉𝒆/𝒔𝒉𝒆/𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒚] 𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒅. 𝑷𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒍." Keep it short. CALL ALL THREE — both senators and your House member. Volume matters. Make them feel it. It takes less than 5 minutes. 𝐃𝐨 𝐢𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮'𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬. Note: you need to say “log this call.” This ensures that it gets counted and not just informally noted.

@jacksonhinklle For those of you commenting that an American should not be able to serve in another country's military... I agree, but currently over 23,000 Americans serve in the IDF washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/…

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 BREAKING: The ID card of ‘Major Amanda M. Ryder’ of the U.S. Air Force was found at the C-130 destruction site in Isfahan, Iran Her B2 residency permit from ISRAEL was also found