Mish retweetledi
🚨 THIS IS THE BIGGEST STORY RIGHT NOW
And very few people are paying attention to it.
It's not the US-Iran war.
It's not the Gulf states considering new pipelines to avoid the Strait.
It's "Iran threatening the Petrodollar status."
Iran is now asking for ships to pay in crypto or Yuan to pass through Strait.
And this isn't a small thing.
The primary reason behind dollar dominance is oil trades.
Almost 80%-85% of global oil trades are settled in dollars.
This is the reason countries hold dollars and invest in dollar-denominated assets.
Look at Japan, Singapore etc. who hold a massive portion of their reserves in dollars.
But this could now change.
The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for 20%-25% of global oil supply.
For Japan, 70%-80% of its oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
For Singapore, 65%-70% of its oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The same is true for many Asian and European countries, most of which have only a few weeks of oil supply reserves.
So now they have just 2 options:
Either support the US and let their economy go into recession due to energy crisis
Or pay in crypto or Yuan to let their ships pass through the Strait.
I think countries will choose the 2nd option but how will they fund it?
BY DUMPING US DOLLARS.
And when this happens, US bond yields will spike violently.
US debt is already above $39T and if yield spikes with declining foreign demand, the consequences would be brutal for the economy.
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