Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Only ONE VLCC spotted TODAY by Sentinel 2 leaving Gulf of Oman at 22.6641, 60.8718 DID NOT sail the Strait of Hormuz but left from Mina' al Fahl Term in Oman 🇴🇲 with 2 million barrels of crude oil to Zhoushan, China 🇨🇳 Sailing in convoy mode with 3 other smaller tankers ahead.

Baltic Sea is about to welcome false flagged tanker GRIF 9332028 heading for Russia She is 19 years old and was last inspected by Russia in 2024 with deficiencies in life boats, doors and "dangerous areas" Sanctioned by EU, UK and Switzerland. Passed inside DK without a hiccup

Yesterday I was trying to make sense of what was transiting through Hormuz and redrew my polygon beyond the narrow international channel normally used for transits to take in wider waters. And that's how I saw what I believe is a new trend that has emerged in the past 3-4 days: ships that are rerouting via Iran's territorial waters to exit the Strait. In one of the first signs of a workaround and permission-based transits to friendly countries, at least five bulk carriers were tracked sailing eastbound to exit the Middle East Gulf through Iranian waters over the past 48 hours. You can see from the navigation chart below the trajectory which is well outside of the actual channel (shown in purple). The new route illustrates how Iran’s selective blockade has evolved to allow allies and supporters to transit. In addition to bulk carriers, two liquefied petroleum gas carriers have sailed through in the past 36 hours.  (These of course are ships with their AIS switched on, there's also Iranian-linked tankers going through dark). In nearly all cases the bulk carriers previously called at Imam Khomeini port in Iran, one of the Islamic Republic’s key commercial ports. Many had Chinese links. Eight ships, excluding Iranian flagged vessels, were tracked through the strait with their AIS on March 16, nearly double numbers seen earlier this week. So here's a working theory: there's no verified evidence (yet) that Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz but the threat is there, and along with the fear of attack, that channel is effectively closed. So how to control of the Strait? Allow 'friendly' vessels to exit and enter via your territorial waters, with a route that hugs the Iranian coastline to avoid the usual international navigation route which may or may not be mined. Western-affiliated vessels won't voluntarily come into Iranian waters, but likely Chinese, Indian and others will. find out more in our blog post here: windward.ai/blog/bulk-carr…

A new pattern is emerging in the Strait of Hormuz. Bulk carriers are rerouting through Iranian territorial waters to exit the Gulf, bypassing standard lanes. Windward tracked at least five vessels in 48 hours, most after calling at Imam Khomeini port in Iran. See what’s happening: okt.to/K0cdGI

2 tankers on subs on extreme rates. 40% uplift

CNBC: U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, says Bessent #OOTT #Iran #Tankers cnbc.com/2026/03/16/us-…

@dooega76 International Group (12 P&I clubs that insure 90% world's fleet)

@Michellewb_ IG ???

The latest ship to run the gauntlet today, a Panamax bulk carrier signalling "all Chinese crew". vessel has IG club P&I cover in place according to the website.

UPDATE following last night's (2026-03-13) US air strikes on #KhargIsland, #Iran: - All 55 crude oil storage tanks appear to be intact. - Two Iranian (NITC) #tankers began loading 2.7 million barrels of crude oil this morning. Details with clients. - Nothing burning. #OOTT

@smileyyyGee @_AnnyLiu_ @benettamullard they've just placed a link on their website for customers to claim refunds. for sh*ts & giggles I filled it in and guess what came back?!

@Michellewb_ @_AnnyLiu_ @benettamullard Did you manage to do it? I've just tried to speak to Bank but they said need evidence. I'm not sure whats the best evidence, as for me I want to refund/cancel my flight scheduled next week but obvs can't get hold of travelup

🧵 This is Ali Shah. he's the visionary leader and founder of travel agency TravelUp (not on X), a British entrepreneur who is now based in UAE. I booked my trip via TravelUp and it appears I've joined thousands who now can't get hold of the company to cancel and rebook my flight.

and here's another on 12/3. a Panama-flagged bulk carrier previously signalling "Chinese owner and crew". The GPS jamming makes it harder to see its trajectory but there's enough here to confirm the Hormuz transit

India-flagged small cargo vessel heads through the Strait, lending credence to emerging reports that India is doing deals with Iran to get its ships through... or perhaps this vessel is running the gauntlet

@smileyyyGee @_AnnyLiu_ @benettamullard my flight was already cancelled and I had to book and pay for a new flight so I think it's easier for me

Screenshot all the trustpilot reveiws as well as emails from airline cancelling flight, the emails you’ve sent and screenshot phone call evidence showing time online. I’m sending through this as a package and then complaining to Trading Standards. Their website says they’re developing a function to allow automatic refund requests. Rather than pay extra people they’ve called in forward deployed engineers to develop an online emergency solution. We’ll see how that goes but it will be too late for me

Sweden is stepping up the shadow fleet game with another violent boarding of a stateless tanker, last one less than a week ago. Minister Bohlin surely does not sound like this is the last of it. Previous boarding has led to detention of vessel CAFFA and charges against crew.

Confirmed AIS manipulation at Kharg Island. Windward RSI shows 3 vessels physically at the terminal on Mar 7, while AIS broadcasts from the fleet were dark or spoofed. Example: Ping Shun transmitting a perfect circle track in the Gulf of Oman while awaiting at Kharg. Since Feb 28, crude exports from Kharg have fallen ~52%.

@auonsson @TankerTrackers that's where they go to spoof their location before sailing to Kharg Island. I've had this basic polygon for a while to isolate them.

A clear majority (eyeball: 80-90%?) of tankers present in and around Hormuz strait are sanctioned ones. Probably not news to insiders, like @TankerTrackers who got me the sanctions-list, but it was to me.

I'll have to end the thread now, but it's clear even if the strait reopens tomorrow, the consequences will ripple through for months: "shut-in upstream production will take weeks and, in some cases, months, to return to pre-crisis levels depending on the degree of field complexity and the timing for workers, equipment and resources to return to the region"

ending on this depressing note about petrochemicals and China: "Nevertheless, the looming loss of imports is so great that, if prolonged, it could increase pressure on supplies of what are essential inputs for the world’s leading manufacturing sector and local consumer good

🧵🧵The IEA monthly report is just out. it says: The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." That's some statement. followed by: "Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d. In the absence of a rapid resumption of shipping flows, supply losses are set to increase" "The principal Asian buyers of Middle East crude exported via Hormuz are China (37% of total exports or over 5.2 mb/d), India (14% or 2.1 mb/d) as well as Korea and Japan (roughly 12% or 1.7 mb/d each). At barely a week’s navigation from Hormuz, India’s exposure to lost supply will be the hardest to compensate in the near term. The Middle East Gulf supplied 40% of India’s 4.9 mb/d of crude imports in 2025. India’s underground strategic petroleum reserve has a capacity of 39.1 mb while refinery crude in tanks was over 107 mb at end-February. China’s Middle East Gulf imports were just over 50% of its seaborne supply. It also holds massive commercial and strategic stocks representing 120 days of net seaborne crude imports. Arrivals from the region in Japan represented 77% of its overall supply; it also holds large strategic crude reserves. Finally, for Korea, the share was 62% of total crude imports; the country holds emergency stocks in line with IEA requirements."