Fiascozz retweetledi
Running the math on this is insane.
Here’s the math, slightly adjusted for my wife and me, who were married at 26 instead of 25 but this is roughly accurate. We spend $0 most years on healthcare because we eat well and exercise.
Here’s a real-world case study:
• Started at age 25 paying $1,000/month in premiums
• By age 30 it was $2,000/month
• Today at age 38–39 (with 4 kids) it’s $4,000/month
That’s roughly 10% annual growth in premiums over 13+ years.
The Alternative Plan (“Forced Savings”):
• Invest the full premium amount every year in the S&P 500 at 6%
• Keep actual healthcare spending very low: $1,000/year base (inflating 4%) + 4 home births at $6k each
• From age 45 onward: Take a 2% annual distribution to cover healthcare + living expenses
The Results:
• Age 39 (today): $464,000
• Age 45: $1.07 million
• Age 55: $3.17 million
• Age 65: $7.97 million
At 65 the 2% distribution would be ~$160,000 per year — and growing.
This family would have a nearly $8 million nest egg while still covering real medical needs through low utilization + smart investing.
For the record the 6% number is the most important. I used the historical rate, but what if we’d used the actual rate?
Using Actual 13.87% S&P 500 Return (Past Period)
• Age 25 to 39 (your real 14-year timeline): Monthly investments into the actual S&P 500 at 13.87% annualized total return (with dividends reinvested) while premiums grew at your observed 10% rate would have built the account to approximately $880,000 – $950,000 today (after low medical costs and the 4 home births).
• Future projection (age 39 to 65) at conservative 6% annual return:
• Age 45: ~$1.8 million
• Age 55: ~$5.5 million
• Age 65: ~$14.2 million
• At age 65 the 2% annual distribution would be approximately $284,000 per year.
Cernovich@Cernovich
For a family of 6 (or even 4, depending on area), Obamacare costs more than a mortgage, and you never see that money again.
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