Mick Miller ☘️🌾

Canola liked the warm week

Got some N, S, and zinc out. Time to water it in.

Canola Week 28 has producer deliveries crater by 41.3% to 375k MT of Canola. Huge export jump of nearly 40% as grain vessels line up out of Vancouver. Net deficit of 27k MT. Even with a Commercial stock increase it doesn’t matter, they need to get the canola to port asap, this is pipeline product. I dunno if a crush plant was down or if they were being outbid on product but 145k MT of crush has been their lowest in months so that should normalize in the 200k range. The crushers didn’t have much stock last week and they don’t have much more than about 10 or 11 days of stock ahead of them. I know some analysts were saying we wouldn’t see $700+ until June, which is China’s harvest, but I think they are wrong. I’ll bet we are over $900 by June, over $700 by middle of March.

Canola at $15.50. I guess it paid to wait for sales this year. $16.00 and a lot gets sold now. Will they screw us with a $2.00 basis for fall, or will it be normal? Peas on suicide watch as $8.00 And only one buyer!

Canola is smashing right now in Week 29. The crushers are consuming 54% of all producer deliveries, meaning they are outbidding the ports for canola. Soybean oil has helped to elevate the price with the renewable diesel regulations in the USA as well. More canola left the system this week than entered it. That's not new, it's been the pattern for five of the last six weeks. But the cumulative picture is what matters. Through 29 weeks of the crop year, Canadian farmers have delivered 11,190 KT of canola. Total demand, exports plus domestic crush, has consumed 11,144 KT. That leaves 46 KT of net surplus after more than half the crop year. 46,000 tonnes. That's roughly a day and a half of crush demand. And there are 23 weeks left to go. 365.5k MT of canola deliveries 503.1k MT consumed for a net of -109.7k MT.