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🔥MCP🔥

@MiddleChildPabk

Topblasting asymmetric enjoyer

Katılım Temmuz 2017
2K Takip Edilen77.8K Takipçiler
🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
@aleabitoreddit SIVE will probably hit $60B+? People asking if 20x from current price is a good investment..?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE. Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today. Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all. I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like Hyperlight/Lightium, or pluggables like Jabil + other undisclosed players in valuation analysis. Or their other segments like CHIPS Act contracts or Apple/Nokia relationships. Or humanoid/physical AI segments with Aeva + others. Retail aren't as familiar with private markets... But these companies are all considered the frontier CPO players, and are growing valuations/scaling rapidly. So, I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums. Especially after they pull off M&A to TAM expand revenue. New Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ inflow next month helps close that gap over time. But NASDAQ listing is probably what gives Sivers a premium.
Dominik@Dominik56798023

@aleabitoreddit Is it still worth investing in Sive?

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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
@aleabitoreddit Why do people need to see $ amounts It's all relative.. They just want a way to justify they ego.. that they have more money, coping they are doing better than you They need $ amounts for self validation It's beta tbh..
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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krasko@krasko1199362

@aleabitoreddit Notice there's no dollar amount attributed

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Feroce Research
Feroce Research@FeroceResearch·
market finally starting to realize where all the money is going as I have been saying lol so I will say it again, however much you think have of memory and connectivity / CXL switches, you do not have enough.. at all. Go and buy yourself some: Micron $MU Astera Labs $ALAB Credo $CRDO
Feroce Research tweet media
Feroce Research@FeroceResearch

However much you think you have, you simply do not have enough of these 3 stocks: Micron $MU Astera Labs $ALAB Credo Technology $CRDO Mag 7 Earnings just gave you the green light to a monster continuation rally on them

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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
Don't forget to chase 45 day old stock picks And sell your "long term high conviction" positions to rotate into them Remember, borrowed conviction > owned conviction 😁🤝 NFA
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🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
@runners271851 Don't think this is forward thinking enough as ramp up for many start H2 2026 - 2027 Think price targets will be hit sooner
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Parabolic Runners
Parabolic Runners@runners271851·
$DGXX 🚨🚨🚨 Stock price projection thesis if execution continues: 2026: $15-25 2027: $25-50 2028: $50-100+ 2029: $100-200+ Why? • 210 MW available for AI • Power is NOT the issue • NO DEBT • ~$140M liquidity • $1.1B AI colocation agreement already signed • NeoCloudz GPU cloud now LIVE • Potential 90 MW AI colocation by 2027 • 2028 revenue target: $400-$500M 2029 revenue target discussed: $800M-$1B If DGXX executes on this AI infrastructure roadmap, today’s valuation could eventually look extremely disconnected from future fundamentals. Not financial advice. Just my personal thesis.
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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
@Ren_aramb I think with all the good news on SIVE recently, it's cheaper at 56 SEK than it was at 38 SEK Dips are for buying
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Ren@Ren_aramb·
@MiddleChildPabk Well said. I will probably sell my POET to buy any SIVE dips.
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Ren@Ren_aramb·
$POET we have come full circle, now trading at ATH. up 22% pre-market on a $50M purchase order from Lumilens, with a framework to scale to $500M. Even after the Marvell NDA fiasco, the stock begun to gain momentum, remember news follows price, someone always nows. Sometimes it’s more obvious than others. Options flow going crazy – On May 11 alone, 266,000 contracts traded with a heavily bullish put/call ratio of 0.41 vs. the usual 0.27, and implied volatility hitting 167. This was a tell, on no material news. Now we know. After the Marvell chaos, this is exactly the kind of customer win the market needed to see. One Tier-1 dispute does not kill the technology. The optical interposer technology is still top notch. Earnings on May 26 just got a lot more interesting. The sound investment would have been to bail after the Marvel news, and cut your loses. I respect and applaud that. I’m a little degen, sometimes you just have to stick to your intuition, hot sector, in demand technology, bullish options flow. I’m on the fence of what I’ll do moving forward, but I’m up 120% and probably not selling before ER. You do you, NFA.
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Ren@Ren_aramb

$POET – continuation of a long. Did you get a chance to buy last week? The trigger for me was Marvell orders confirmed by the CFO. Great find by @crux_capital_. Then add the $SIVE and $POET partnership on top. These two aren’t competing – they’re building the same stack together. $SIVE supplies the InP lasers. $POET packages them into optical engines at 6x-12x the throughput of conventional assembly. One has the laser nobody else can make at volume. The other has the platform that scales it. $MRVL ELS architecture needs both. So I was already long $SIVE, so when the same thesis started showing up in $POET I had no reason not to believe it. Rather than choosing I invest in the ecosystem. Much improved fundamentals this time around made it an easier entry. Still think it’s early.

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Justin
Justin@Justintrades·
Would make sense for $DGXX to bottom out around the $7 level here before the next move higher Looks like a lot of the flippers are nearly out & sell volume is slowing down a bit Tomorrow is earnings so might be volatile going into it, lets see what happens there. Could easily get good news & send this right back into the highs Nothing has changed fundamentally but interesting how quickly sentiment changes when price drops Not a bad RR here. Let's see
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Crypto Mikey
Crypto Mikey@CryptoCX1·
@aleabitoreddit $BOT Private equity like etf, solid basket. Too high above nav atm, but could be good DCA into red.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?
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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
$ASTS 👀🔥 Also looking into their ASICs supplier. $ENSI (Ensilica) ASIC (AST5000) for their BlueBird LEO satellites payload. This chip enables direct-to-cell broadband connectivity to standard smartphones and delivers a 10x improvement in processing bandwidth per satellite. ASTS's Block 2 constellation plans
AST SpaceMobile@AST_SpaceMobile

Peak download speed 98.9 Mbps. From space. With our Block 1 satellites. Direct to a standard smartphone over international waters. No modifications. No new hardware. Next-generation satellites expected to nearly double these speeds! Built in Texas. Space-based cellular broadband. Connecting everywhere. 🌎📶📱 #ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds

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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$LITE is now over $1000. Did you listen anon? I do tend to get optical players directionally right... So it's hilarious when I see short sellers on names like $AAOI or $SIVE.
Serenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.

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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
Agreed I'm also researching one of the small cap ASTS suppliers Ensilica ($ENSI) $160m mc Look into this one "Fabless semiconductor company, specializing in mixed-signal, RF, mmWave, and digital ASICs. ENSI serves as a key supplier to ASTS, for their ASIC (AST5000) in their BlueBird LEO satellites payload. This chip enables direct-to-cell broadband connectivity to standard smartphones and delivers a 10x improvement in processing bandwidth per satellite. It has progressed through tape-out with TSMC, supporting ASTS's Block 2 constellation plans (growing into next phases with ASTS)."
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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
Everything go brrrrrr 🔥💰 Memory: MU SK Hynix Samsung SNDK DRAM PENG (Memory/HPC) MRAM CPO: SIVE OE Solutions LPK Neocloud/Data Centers: NBIS DGXX
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.

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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
Just like glass was supposed to be further out, but as Apple and Intel discuss, more get interested, and it moves up the narrative pacing. I have positions in MSSCorps and Auros, and people keep asking me about price action. No one wants to hold more than the week without price going 2x. People are impatient. I think it'll be the same with these. All it takes is one announcement in this space and these stocks could jump and will leave people sidelined
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
MSSCorp is a CPO names... CPO really starts to ramp up in 2027. You don't really have any volume H1 2026, so there's probably going to be volatility up until then. But I think the time wait is compelling enough to frontrun one of the largest supercycles at the very start. As for Auros, they supply to Sk Hynix/Samsung and are qualifying their products. My thesis was mainly about waiting for volume ramp sometime to hit H2.
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Every day it's like this on repeat with $SIVE, it's like dejavu lol. Makes sense why Sivers is getting listed on Nasdaq soon instead of staying in local markets. New local hit piece on their own frontier company happens every market open, stock drops 10%: -> "CPO and the CW lasers is nothing new" -> "Sivers is going up against well funded $LITE and $COHR and will lose because of capital" -> "They had to dilute 2.5% to get listed on Nasdaq" -> "Delayed annual report is sketchy" (to get listed on Nasdaq) -> $SIVE is not big enough to capitalize on $JBL relationship and scale. Local Swedish folks end up selling. Western investors/funds end up acquiring the float. Better for the West to own the company before CPO ramp starts. Creating a frontier company purely from Sweden seems hopeless given local culture.
Serenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

I'm still laughing how much Swedish hate their own frontier companies so much. That they write hit pieces every day on $SIVE. This one was entertaining: Local journalists show up to an empty $SIVE administrative building uninvited. Because they can't fathom the CEO is in Silicon Valley or design team is working on US Gov CHIPS act dev in the US. And because there weren't many cars parked outside + CFO wouldn't take questions about secretive hyperscaler deal financials. They wrote a random negative hit piece. By repeating "There are several who make lasers like these and Sivers are far from alone". Several like $LITE, $COHR, $60B+ companies. and reported earlier that "CPO is nothing special, it's been around for years." While GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years. Even put "Plans" in quotation marks because they didn't think Sivers is supplying lasers to $JBL 1.6T LRO. IMO, $SIVE ends up as a $10B+ company next year, especially if they follow what $LITE / $COHR did with downstream IP integration to capture more of CPO module BOM. Just don't think Swedish people understand hyperscaler supply chains, concept of forward growth, or the fact that employee count doesn't equate to revenue. Transfer of control from local Swedish -> West is always appreciated, as this was a majority owned local retail company before.

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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
@AnomalyAtlas I'll be happy to sell them to you at a 50x when they are done building the story and they become "safe" investments
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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
Focused on next 1-18 months: immediate beneficiaries of Ramp and CapEx towards CPO and HBM4 Potential $7.6T over the next years SIVE OE Solutions LPK Philoptics MSSCorps Auros PENG SK Square / SK Hynix And some others... --- Photonics & Lasers (CPO/Optical Components) - SIVE (Sivers Semiconductors) - OE Solutions (Optical Transceivers) Photonics Equipment & Substrates - LPK (LPKF Laser & Electronics) *Glass core substrate - Philoptics (161580) *Glass substrate Semiconductor Testing, Metrology & Analysis (SiPh/HBM) - Auros (AUROS Technology) *Memory HBM4 - MSSCorps (MSSCORPS) *Photonics + Memory Memory & Advanced Computing (HBM/AI) - PENG (Penguin Solutions) - SK Square / SK Hynix
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🔥MCP🔥
🔥MCP🔥@MiddleChildPabk·
Photonics / CPO Lasers SIVE $1.7B = next LITE $70B: pure-play InP laser arrays for CPO/SiPh. OE Solutions $460M = next AAOI $14B: full vertical InP chips-to-transceivers. Pluggables ran last cycle. Now CPO lasers are ramping next. Goldman Sachs highlighted CPO as next key theme in the potential $7.6T capex cycle.
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